1. Protected Areas in the Brazilian Amazon: Performance, Pressure, and Efficacy Christopher P. Barber Mark A. Cochrane (advisor) Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings SD USA Instituto do Homem e Meio Ambiente da Amazônia, Belém PA Brazil Christopher P. Barber Mark A. Cochrane (advisor) Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings SD USA Instituto do Homem e Meio Ambiente da Amazônia, Belém PA Brazil May 7 th, 2009 NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York, NY NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York, NY

2. Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Protected Areas of the Brazilian Amazon Full ProtectionSustainable UseTotal Federal254,135327,826581,961 State103,585331,912435,497 Total357,720659,7381,017,458 Indigenous Land 961,887 Total: 1,831,775 km 2

3. Are protected areas preserving the natural forest cover? Are Protected Areas in the Amazon Working? Research Questions What levels of risk are protected forests facing? Can we say something about the integrity of remaining forests? Risks? Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

4. Advances beyond previous work Use of fine-scale land cover datasets Monitoring over many annual observations (2000-2008) Accounting for all designated limited-development areas Research Questions Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

5. Performance, Pressure, & Efficacy Efficacy Factors of risk Probability of Deforestation Pressure Intact Forest Elements of Biodiversity Performance Connectivity Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

6. Preserving Forest Cover? Deforestation as of 2006: 98 % of protected forests intact Loss of 32,000 km 2 Deforestation 2000-2006: 195,000 km 2 throughout region 8% in protected areas Loss of 15,000 km 2 477,000 km 2 throughout the Amazon (13%) Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

7. 85% of all deforestation within 50 km 240,000 km of unofficial roads 73,000 km of official roads in region Distance (km) 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Deforestation 57.1 % 79.3 % 88.2 % 92.3 % 94.6 % Roads, Deforestation, & Protected Areas Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

8. 12% of protected forest within 5 km of road/river: 221,000 km 2 Roads, Deforestation, & Protected Areas Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

9. 100 m 300 m 500 m 1000+ m Wind throw, increased insolation, desiccation, structural collapse Compositional shift, loss of biomass, moderate drying Decreased biodiversity (pollinators & understory birds) Increased risk of fire Forest / Deforested edge Forest Cover (‘06)300 m Edge600 m Edge Edge Effects in Protected Forests Cleared in protected areas: ~ 32,000 km 2 Forest at 500m: ~ 43,000 km 2 Forest at 1000m: ~ 85,000 km 2 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

10. Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Examining the Network

11. Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Examining the Network

12. Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Other indicators of risk Proximity to commercial centers Terrain variables County-level population Fire

13. Performance, Pressure, & Efficacy Factors of risk Probability of Deforestation Intact Forest Core Forest Efficacy Performance Pressure Deforestation Rates Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

14. APA Triunfo do Xingu State managed Environmental Protection Area Total Area:16.8 k km 2 Cleared Area:19.3 % Core @ 300m:81.7 % Core @ 1km:52.3 % Accessible:66.9 % Protected Area Report Card: PARC existing forest within 5 km of road network Accessible = Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

15. FLONA Bom Futuro Federal managed National Forest Total Area:2,755 km 2 Cleared Area:18.9 % Core @ 300m:73.2 % Core @ 1km:34.2 % Accessible:63.5 % Protected Area Report Card: PARC existing forest within 5 km of road network Accessible = Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

16. FLORSU Rio S. Domingos State managed Sustained Yield Forest Total Area:2,919 km 2 Cleared Area:65.2 % Core @ 300m:39.0 % Core @ 1km:7.0 % Accessible:98.6 % Protected Area Report Card: PARC existing forest within 5 km of road network Accessible = Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

17. Not all parks are created equal Network comprised of individual parks, or links Some links may be weaker than others Protected Area Report Card: PARC Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009

18. Conclusion Assessments of protected area networks need to move towards comprehensive examinations from a landscape perspective, with frequent monitoring, and occur at scales that match the levels of disturbance Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009 Christopher P. Barber, South Dakota State University, christopher.barber@sdstate.edu NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting, May 7 th 2009