1. Energy Efficiency Lessons and Plans from California Delhi & Mumbai, March 2009 & APP, Berkeley CA, April 30, 2009 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld.html or just Google “ Art Rosenfeld”

2. Does Anyone See A Problem With This Picture? 2

3. Two Energy Agencies in California The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) was formed in 1890 to regulate natural monopolies, like railroads, and later electric and gas utilities. The California Energy Commission (CEC) was formed in 1974 to regulate the environmental side of energy production and use. Now the two agencies work very closely, particularly to delay climate change. The Investor-Owned Utilities, under the guidance of the CPUC, spend “Public Goods Charge” money (rate-payer money) to do everything they can that is cost effective to beat existing standards. The Publicly-Owned utilities (20% of the power), under loose supervision by the CEC, do the same. 3

4. California Energy Commission Responsibilities Both Regulation and R&D California Building and Appliance Standards –Started 1977 –Updated every few years Siting Thermal Power Plants Larger than 50 MW Forecasting Supply and Demand (electricity and fuels) Research and Development –~ $80 million per year CPUC & CEC are collaborating to introduce communicating electric meters and thermostats that are programmable to respond to time- dependent electric tariffs. 4

5. California’s Energy Action Plan California’s Energy Agencies first adopted an Energy Action Plan in 2003. Central to this is the State’s preferred “Loading Order” for resource expansion. 1. Energy efficiency and Demand Response 2. Renewable Generation, 3. Increased development of affordable & reliable conventional generation 4. Transmission expansion to support all of California’s energy goals. The Energy Action Plan has been updated since 2003 and provides overall policy direction to the various state agencies involved with the energy sectors 5

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9. Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 Year Index (1972 = 100) Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards = Refrigerators Central A/C Gas Furnaces SEER = 13 9

10. Source: David Goldstein ~ 1 Ton CO2/year~ 100 gallons Gasoline/year 10

11. = 80 power plants of 500 MW each In the United States 11

12. In the United States 12

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14. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 TWh 2000 Stds 2005 Stds If EnergyStar TWH/Year 1.5 4.5 6.0 3.0 7.5 Value (billion $/year) Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL Value of TWh 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 标准生效后，10年节约电量 14

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16. California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency Forecast Profits decoupled from sales Performance Incentives Market Restructuring Crisis IRP 2% of 2004 IOU Electric Revenues Public Goods Charges 16

17. Demand Response In 3 cool seasons CA peak is 40 GW, but a/c adds 20 GW in summer So we want demand response to price. So all customers will receive Communicating interval meters, 10 million of them Dynamic pricing: TOU summer afternoon + “critical peak” 10 days/yr Programmable communicating thermostats and controls. Cost premiums are small: $20-30 for meters, $20-30 for thermostats TOU and dynamic pricing will change the design of buildings – promote thermal storage and the use of thermal mass, white roofs, etc. If you announce dynamic prices today, architects will design better buildings tomorrow. 17

18. 18 California is VERY MUCH a Summer Peaking Area

19. 19 Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with additional curtailment option 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Price (cents/kWh) Standard TOU Critical Peak Price Standard Rate Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year CPP Price Signal 10x per year ? Potential Annual Customer Savings: 10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kWh at 70 cents/kWh = ~$30/year

20. 20 Just some of the proposed systems for PCTs and demand response in the residential and small commercial/industrial sectors.

21. White Roofs 21

22. Temperature Rise of Various Materials in Sunlight 0.00.20.40.60.8 1.0 50 40 30 20 10 0 Temperature Rise (°C) Galvanized Steel IR-Refl. Black Black Paint Green Asphalt Shingle Red Clay Tile Lt. Red Pain Lt. Green Paint White Asphalt Shingle Al Roof Coat. Optical White White Paint White Cement Coat. Solar Absorbance 22

23. White is ‘cool’ in Bermuda 23

24. and in Santorini, Greece 24

25. and in Hyderabad, India 25

26. Cool Roof Technologies flat, white pitched, white pitched, cool & colored Old New 26

27. Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight 27

28. White Roofs In California and a growing number of US states, white roofs are required for new buildings, and re-roofing to reduce air conditioning load and “smog”(O 3 ). But a new concept is that white roofs also cool the world directly. 28

29. Effect of Solar Reflective Roofs and Pavements in Cooling the Globe ∆ Solar Reflectivity CO 2 Offset by 100 m 2 CO 2 Offset Globally White Roof0.4010 tons Average Roof0.256.3 tons24 Gt Cool Pavement0.154 tons20 Gt Total Potential44 Gt Value of 44 Gt CO 2 at $25/t ~ $1 Trillion (Source: Akbari, Menon, Rosenfeld. Climatic Change, 2008) White Roof will be “diluted” by cool colored roofs of lower reflectivity, and roofs that can not be changed, because they are long-lived tile, or perhaps they are already white. Compare 10 tons with a family car, which emits ~4 tons/year. * * ** 29 *** 24 Gt CO2 Offsets Global CO2 emissions in 2009

30. CO 2 Equivalency of Cool Roofs World-wide (Tropics+Temperate) Cool Roofs alone offset 24 Gt CO2 Worth > €600 Billion To Convert 24 Gt CO2 one time into a rate Assume 20 Year Program, thus 1.2 Gt CO2/year Average World Car Emits 4 tCO2/year, equivalent to 300 Million Cars off the Road for 20 years. 30

31. 100 m 2 of a white roof, replacing a dark roof, offset the emission of 10 tons of CO 2 Akbari et al. Main Finding 31

32. To be published in Climatic Change 2008. Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2 July 28, 2008 Hashem Akbari and Surabi Menon Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA H_Akbari@lbl.gov Tel: 510-486-4287 Arthur Rosenfeld California Energy Commission, USA Arosenfe@energy.state.ca.us Tel: 916-654 4930 A First Step In Geo-Engineering Which Saves Money and Has Known Positive Environmental Impacts 32

33. Conservation Supply Curves and Carbon Abatement Curves 33

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35. PG&E Electric Supply Curve Summary of Previous Slide 200 Projects costing at or below 12 cents /kWh average retail price Total Potential Savings of 18,000 GWh for these projects This represents about 20% of total electric sales for PG&E in 2008 35

36. TechnologySector Levelized Supply Cost Levelized Supply Cost with Programs Technical GWH 2016 S04_0515INC00.0054.549 S01_0515INC00.00513.356 WWT_PDWINC0.0020.0070.08 CRm_ExOpINC0.0050.010.41 CRm_HEChINC0.0050.014.52 S36_HEVCINC0.0050.010.729 Fans_ASD_(6-100_hp)Existing Industrial0.0050.01227.33 Comp_Air_ASD_(6-100_hp)Existing Industrial0.0050.01231.33 Pumps_ASD_(6-100_hp)Existing Industrial0.0050.01254.46 CRm_UASINC0.0050.013.01 WWT_DesINC0.0060.0111.83 CRm_POHPINC0.0060.0111.31 CRm_PrPlINC0.0060.0113.75 CRm_EfFSINC0.0060.0112.02 Fans_OMExisting Industrial0.0060.01411.94 Compressed_AirSizingExisting Industrial0.0060.01449.29 Pumps_OMExisting Industrial0.0060.01495.2 C_CFL_Over24WExisting Commercial0.0070.035305.09 CRm_PACRINC0.0070.0127.89 Compressed_Air-OMExisting Industrial0.0080.015172.52 CRm_VACSINC0.0080.0131.45 S36_ACrSINC0.0080.0131.16 CRm_LPDFINC0.0080.0132.43 WWT_VFDINC0.0080.01312.4 S04_0510INC0.0080.0130 CRm_PrPmINC0.0090.0140.42 CRm_PMEVINC0.0090.0140.3 CRm_PMEWINC0.0090.0140.21 C_CFL_Under15WExisting Commercial0.0090.04151.16 C_T12_Delamping_4FtExisting Commercial0.0210.027123.76 C_Ref_EvapFan_ECMExisting Commercial0.0220.027238.21 36

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39. Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost? US Greenhouse Gas Abatement Mapping Initiative December 12, 2007

40. Abatement cost <$50/ton U.S. mid-range abatement curve – 2030 Source:McKinsey analysis 0 30 60 90 -120 -220 -30 -60 -90 3.2 0 Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e 1.01.21.41.82.00.22.22.42.62.83.01.60.40.60.8 -230 Residential electronics Commercial electronics Residential buildings – Lighting Commercial buildings – LED lighting Fuel economy packages – Cars Commercial buildings – CFL lighting Cellulosic biofuels Industry – Combined heat and power Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements Conservation tillage Fuel economy packages – Light trucks Commercial buildings – Combined heat and power Coal mining – Methane mgmt Commercial buildings – Control systems Distributed solar PV Residential buildings – Shell retrofits Nuclear new- build Natural gas and petroleum systems management Active forest management Afforestation of pastureland Reforestation Winter cover crops Onshore wind – Medium penetration Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR Biomass power – Cofiring Onshore wind – High penetration Industry – CCS new builds on carbon- intensive processes Coal power plants – CCS new builds Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants Car hybridi- zation Commercial buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Solar CSP Residential buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Industria l process improve- ments Residential water heaters Manufacturing – HFCs mgmt Residential buildings – New shell improvements Coal power plants– CCS rebuilds with EOR Potential Gigatons/year Commercial buildings – New shell improvement s Afforestation of cropland Onshore wind – Low penetration 40

41. 8%17%25%33%42%50%58% 41

42. Source: Pat McAuliffe, pmcaulif@energy.state.ca.us 42

43. Source: Pat McAuliffe, pmcaulif@energy.state.ca.us 43