1. Speaker I Organism I adresse mail www.jerico-fp7.eu WP9: NEW METHODS TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF COASTAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS Presented by Srdjan Dobricic on behalf of research groups at CMCC, DELTARES, DMI, HCMR HZG, IFREMER, INSU/CNRS and MUMM

2. TITLE - JERICO - 2www.jerico-fp7.eu MOTIVATION WP9 should apply mathematically sophisticated methods based on the statistical measure of the impact of coastal observations in order to provide the information on how to optimize investments and extract the most of the data from European coastal observing systems

3. TITLE - JERICO - 3www.jerico-fp7.eu WORK PLAN Two types of experiments tasks: 1. Impact of existing observational platforms (OSE) 2. Impact of future observational platforms (OSSE)

4. TITLE - JERICO - 4www.jerico-fp7.eu PARTNERS CMCC IFREMER DMI DELTARES HCMR HZG MUMM INSU/CNRS

5. TITLE - JERICO - 5www.jerico-fp7.eu BALTIC SEA OSE Spatial distribution of the temperature and salinity profiles assimilated during the precursor and inflow event period of 2006.

6. TITLE - JERICO - 6www.jerico-fp7.eu BALTIC SEA OSSE the observing system comprising repeated XBT lines (blue lines) and moored buoy array (red squares).

7. TITLE - JERICO - 7 GERMAN BIGHT

8. TITLE - JERICO - 8 GERMAN BIGHT

9. TITLE - JERICO - 9 NORTH SEA

10. TITLE - JERICO - 10www.jerico-fp7.eu NORTH SEA OSE  September 2001  Ensemble Kalman filter (square root algorithm)  Assimilation of synthetic temperature profiles at 8 stations representing 4 observational networks: Existing network Optimally designed network Existing network + 1 station Optimally designed, move 3 stations  Comparison of the networks: RMS errors between model with assimilation and assimilated data Reduction of the ensemble spread

11. TITLE - JERICO - 11www.jerico-fp7.eu NORTH SEA OSE  September 2001  Ensemble Kalman filter (square root algorithm)  Assimilation of synthetic temperature profiles at 8 stations representing 4 observational networks: Existing network Optimally designed network Existing network + 1 station Optimally designed, move 3 stations  Comparison of the networks: RMS errors between model with assimilation and assimilated data Reduction of the ensemble spread

12. TITLE - JERICO - 12www.jerico-fp7.eu NORTH SEA OSE Surface temperature without (left), with (right) assimilation, location of the profiles (middle)

13. TITLE - JERICO - 13 NORTH SEA OSE German Bight: Surface temperature without (left), with (right) assimilation

14. TITLE - JERICO - 14 North Sea OSEs: simulations  Horizontal resolution: 4 nautical miles  September 2001  Ensemble Kalman filter (square root algorithm)  Localization: assimilation radius of 50km  Assimilation of synthetic temperature profiles at 8 stations representing 3 observational networks: Existing network Existing network, move 3 stations Optimally designed network  Comparison of the networks: Reduction of the ensemble spread

15. TITLE - JERICO - 15 North Sea OSEs: networks to be compared Existing network (left), existing 3 stations moved (centre), optimally designed (right) m m

16. TITLE - JERICO - 16 Ensemble std deviation of sfce temperature Existing network (left), existing 3 stations moved (centre), optimally designed (right) °C°C °C°C

17. TITLE - JERICO - 17 BAY OF BISCAY Based on: Observations (vertical T/S profilers on ships of opportunity – RECOPESCA program on fishing boats) Model ensemble simulations (MARS3D – 4Km – 50 members) Using a representer-based method: ARM (ARray Modes) (Le Hénaff et al., 2008; de Mey, 2010) Estimation, using ARM method, of the ability of observations networks to constrain model uncertainties. Three scenarii: REF: observed profiles in 2008 SC1: observed profiles in 2010 SC2: whole RECOPESCA dataset from 2006 to 2011 In conclusion, SC2 most efficient than SC1 and REF. Spatial distribution most important than number of profiles. Estimation, using ARM method, of the ability of observations networks to constrain model uncertainties. Three scenarii: REF: observed profiles in 2008 SC1: observed profiles in 2010 SC2: whole RECOPESCA dataset from 2006 to 2011 In conclusion, SC2 most efficient than SC1 and REF. Spatial distribution most important than number of profiles.

18. TITLE - JERICO - 18 BAY OF BISCAY 0.3 Next step: same model ensemble and method but based on: New observations from glider and mooring ( ) in Temperature and Salinity 0.5 Interpolated ensemble std at glider profile locations Temperature Salinity Preliminary results: Weak sensitivity of the results to the glider direction (if it remains cross-shore from the river mouth). Most of error modes “seen” by the glider.

19. TITLE - JERICO - 19 Impact of coastal observations in the Northern Adriatic Sea Difference between temperatures at 10m depth (0C) estimated by the control and assimilation experiments on 01 August 2006.

20. TITLE - JERICO - 20 Temperature observations by fishing vessels in the Adriatic Sea Positions of observations during 2007

21. TITLE - JERICO - 21 Temperature observations by fishing vessels in the Adriatic Sea RMS of temperature misfits averaged over the last 20 days in each month Continuous assimilation Control Short assimilation cycle

22. TITLE - JERICO - 22 AEGEAN SEA SURFACE CURRENTS FROM RADAR INSTALLATION

23. TITLE - JERICO - 23 AEGEAN SEA Assimilation of observed surface zonal velocity improves SSH forecast RMS error 07 Sept. 2010

24. TITLE - JERICO - 24www.jerico-fp7.eu DELIVERABLES (STATUS ON M24) Four deliverables are produced till M24: D9.1 First year Scientific report (M12) D9.2 First report on OSE experiments (M18) (delayed 2 months) D9.3 First report on OSSE experiments (M18) (delayed 2 months) D9.4 Second year scientific report (M24) (delayed 2 months) Still to be produced: D9.5 Scientific report on OSE experiments (M36) D9.6 Scientific report on OSSE experiments (M36)

25. TITLE - JERICO - 25www.jerico-fp7.eu WORKSHOPS (STATUS ON M24) M03 WP9 workshop on the planned OSE and OSSE experiments was organised in Bologna on M06 There is definitely the need for another workshop before writing the two final scientific reports. If possible it should be organised with other WPs that are particularly interested in our results. The Eurogoos meeting in November may be a good occasion.