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Q4 2015 and 2016 Targets investor conference call February 11, 2016 Darren Entwistle, President & CEO John Gossling, EVP & CFO
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Caution regarding forward looking statements Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about financial and operating performance of TELUS (the Company) and future events, including with respect to future dividend increases and normal course issuer bids through 2016 and the 2016 annual targets and guidance that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future performance and events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly, this presentation is subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for the 2016 annual targets and guidance, semi-annual dividend increases through 2016 and our ability to sustain and complete our multi-year share purchase program through 2016), qualifications and risk factors referred to in the 2015 fourth quarter Management’s review of operations accompanying, our February 11, 2016 news release, and in the 2015 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, and in other TELUS public disclosure documents and filings with securities commissions in Canada (on SEDAR at sedar.com) and in the United States (on EDGAR at sec.gov). Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance. 2
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Delivering solid financial and operating results in challenging environment Returning significant capital to our shareholders Introducing 2016 targets reflecting diversity and strength of TELUS’ multiple growth assets Focusing on efficiency while elevating customer service Investing for sustainable long-term future growth 3 Driving success by executing on long-term strategy
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Returning significant cash to shareholders… In 2015 Purchased 15.6 million shares for $635 million $1.6 billion returned to shareholders 2016 NCIB To purchase and cancel up to 16 million shares or $500 million ($212 million remaining at end of Jan 2016) Since 2004 Sixteen dividend increases from 2004 through 2015 Purchased 183 million shares for $5.1 billion Returned $12.7 billion or more than $21 per share 4 Share Purchases Dividends 12.7 7.6 5.1 2004 – 2015 Cumulative ($B) Consistent track record of growth while returning capital to shareholders
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…while investing in networks, spectrum and efficiency 5 Capex & spectrum 2016E ~$2.65B $4.63B 2015 Meaningful, consistent and disciplined commitment to long-term wireless, wireline and efficiency investments Efficiency (restructuring & other costs) ($M) 2015 226 75 2014 2016E 175 $3.53B
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Wireless postpaid net additions 6 Postpaid net adds (000s) Wireless subscribers 8.5M total 1.1M prepaid 87% 13% 7.4M postpaid Q4-15 62 118 Q4-14 Q4 net adds affected by Alberta weakness and competition Continued expansion of postpaid base – up 3.4% in 2015 0.94% 1.01% Q4-15 Q4-14 Postpaid churn rate
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Investing in retention 7 Retention volume (000s) Q4-15 609 578 Q4-14 Retention volumes up 5%, while COR up 23% reflecting continued heightened competitive activity and mix of higher-value smartphones 223 273 Q4-15 Q4-14 Cost of Retention ($M)
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Industry-leading ARPU & lifetime revenue per sub 8 Lifetime revenue driven by 21st consecutive quarter of y/y blended ARPU growth due to data, and blended churn rate improvement Q4-14Q4-15 $63.74 $63.34 Blended 1 Lifetime revenue derived by dividing ARPU by blended churn rate. Q4-14Q4-15 1.32% 1.43% Q4-14Q4-15 $4,829 $4,429 Churn Average lifetime revenue ARPU
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Continued strong wireline subscriber (RGU) growth 9 Growing Internet, TV subs offsetting residential NAL losses TELUS TV Residential NALs High-speed Internet Net additions (000s) Total Internet, TV, Residential NALs Q1-15 2419 Q2-15Q3-15 2530 Q4-14Q4-15 23 50 44 39 47 50 -20 -24 -25
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10 Financial results
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Fourth quarter 2015 wireless financial results 11 ($ millions, except margin) Q4 2015y/y change Revenue (external) 1,772+1.6% Network revenue1,595+3.0% EBITDA 1 628(0.2)% EBITDA (excluding restructuring costs)653+2.8% EBITDA margin 2 35.1%(0.7) pts EBITDA margin (excluding restructuring costs)36.5%0.4 pts Capital expenditures20911% Revenue growth continued while EBITDA growth negatively impacted by increased COR from double-cohort, and restructuring costs 1 EBITDA does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS-IASB. Please see the appendix for the definition. 2 EBITDA as a percentage of total revenue.
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Fourth quarter 2015 wireline financial results 12 ($ millions, except margin) Q4 2015y/y change Revenue (external) 1 1,445+4.4% EBITDA350(5.9)% EBITDA (excluding restructuring costs)424+8.2% EBITDA margin23.5%(2.5) pts EBITDA margin (excluding restructuring costs)28.5%+1.1 pts Capital expenditures446+17% Steady trends continue in underlying revenue and EBITDA growth driven by data 1 Revenues arising from contracts with customers was $1,421 million, up $50 million or 3.6% in Q4-15.
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Fourth quarter 2015 consolidated financial results 13 ($ millions, except EPS) Q4 2015y/y change Revenue3,217+2.8% EBITDA978(2.2)% EBITDA (excluding restructuring costs)1,077+4.9% EPS (basic)0.44(14)% Adjusted EPS 1 0.54+1.9% Capital expenditures65515% Free cash flow197(42)% Consolidated growth reflective of solid execution of long-term strategy despite economic challenges in some parts of Canada 1 Adjusted EPS does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS-IASB. Please see the appendix for the definition.
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14 2016 outlook
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2016 segmented targets 1 15 1 See forward looking statement caution and assumptions in Section 1.7 of fourth quarter 2015 Management’s review of operations. Wireless ($B)2016 targetsTargeted change Network revenue (external)$6.425 to $6.4902 to 3% EBITDA (excluding restructuring) $2.975 to $3.0603 to 6% Wireline ($B)2016 targetsTargeted change Revenue (external)$5.680 to $5.7352 to 3% EBITDA (excluding restructuring) $1.650 to $1.6953 to 6% Targets demonstrate benefits of ongoing network and service-related investments, combined with customer-focused operational execution
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2016 consolidated targets 1 16 1 See forward looking statement caution and assumptions in Section 1.7 of fourth quarter 2015 Management’s review of operations. 2 2016 consolidated EBITDA target excludes $175M of restructuring and other costs 3 2016 Basic EPS target includes an estimated $0.22 of restructuring and other costs per share. Restructuring and other costs totaled $0.28 per share in 2015. $B, except EPS2016 targetsTargeted change Revenue$12.750 to $12.8752 to 3% EBITDA (excluding restructuring) $4.625 to $4.7553 to 6% Basic EPS 3 $2.40 to $2.565 to 12% Capital expendituresApprox. $2.65 3% Targets reflect strength of TELUS’ multiple growth assets, continued network and service-related investments, and execution
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Key assumptions for 2016 Pension accounting discount rate of 4.00% (2015 - 3.90%) Defined benefit pension expense of approx. $94M (2015 - $145M) Defined benefit pension plan cash funding of approx. $57M (2015 - $94M) Restructuring and other costs of approx. $175M (2015 - $226M) Cash taxes in range of $570M to $630M (2015 - $256M) Statutory income tax rate in range of 26.3 to 26.8% (2015 - 26.5%) 17 Key assumptions listed in section 1.7 in Q4 Management’s review of operations
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Balance sheet considerations 18 Long-term net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.66x at year end 2015 Excellent debt maturity schedule with: Average maturity at 11.1 years 1 (vs. 5.5 years at YE 2012) Average cost of debt at approx. 4.32% (vs. 5.44% at YE 2012) In 2016, only $600M Series CI notes maturing More than $2 billion of available liquidity Investment grade credit ratings provide ready access to capital markets TELUS defined benefit pension plans 99% funded on accounting basis 100%+ funded on solvency basis at year end 2015 Solid balance sheet underpins capital allocation strategy 1 Average term to maturity excludes commercial paper
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19 Questions? Investor relations 1-800-667-4871 telus.com/investors ir@telus.com
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Appendix – Q4-15 & 2015 EPS analysis 20 Fourth quarterAnnual EPS as reported (Q4/14, 2014)$0.512.31 Restructuring and other like costs 0.030.09 Favourable income tax-related adjustments (0.01) Long-term debt prepayment premium 0.02 EPS adjusted (Q4/14, 2014)$0.532.41 Higher EBITDA excluding restructuring and other costs 0.060.23 Lower shares outstanding from NCIB 0.010.05 Higher depreciation and other (0.06)(0.11) EPS adjusted (Q4/15, 2015)$0.542.58 Restructuring and other costs (0.12)(0.28) Favourable income tax-related adjustments 0.02 Black’s asset retirement (0.01) EPS as reported (Q4/15, 2015)$0.442.29
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Appendix - free cash flow comparison 21 Q4 - 2014Q4 - 201520142015 EBITDA1,0019784,2164,262 Capex (excluding spectrum licenses)(570)(655)(2,359)(2,577) Net employee defined benefit plans expense223787118 Employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans(15)(26)(88)(94) Interest expense paid, net(128)(108)(410)(434) Income taxes paid, net of refunds1(7)(464)(256) Share-based compensation15(78)74(38) Restructuring costs net of disbursements1156197 Free Cash Flow3371971,0571,078 Spectrum(28)(46)(1,171)(2,048) Purchase of Common Shares for cancellation(112)(226)(612)(628) Dividends paid to holders of equity shares(233)(252)(913)(992) Cash payments for acquisitions and related investments(3)-(49)(10) Real estate joint ventures(16)(11)(53)48 Working Capital and Other(86)92(58)(18) Funds available for debt redemption(141)(246)(1,799)(2,570) Net issuance of debt(25)3281,5232,733 Increase in cash(166)82(276)163
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2016E free cash flow 22 Net cash interest payment EBITDA (net of restructuring) Capex (excluding spectrum) Net cash tax payment 1 Cash pension contribution Free Cash Flow (before dividends and spectrum) 1 Midpoint used to calculate FCF range 2 Other includes share based compensation, restructuring disbursements net of restructuring costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense ~(510) 2016E $4,450 to 4,580 ~(2,650) (570) to (630) ~(57) 658 to 788 Free Cash Flow (before dividends, spectrum and pension contributions) 715 to 845 Simple Cash flow 1,800 to 1,930 Other 2 ~25 (434) 2015 $4,262 (2,577) (256) 1,078 1,172 1,685 177 (94) ($M)
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Appendix - definitions 23 EBITDA does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS- IASB. We have issued guidance on and report EBITDA because it is a key measure used to evaluate performance at a consolidated level and the contribution of our two segments. For definition and explanation, see Section 4.1 in the 2015 fourth quarter Management’s review of operations. Adjusted EPS does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS-IASB. This term is defined in this presentation as excluding (after income taxes): 1) restructuring and other costs; 2) income tax-related adjustments; 3) asset retirement costs from the planned closure of Black’s Photography retail stores; 4) Long-term debt prepayment premium. For further analysis of the aforementioned items see Section 1.2 in the 2015 fourth quarter Management’s review of operations.
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