1. Preparing for the First Hourly

2. Course Structure Probability  Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

3. Course Objectives: Probability I.1.Conduct simple experiments in sampling and compute sample frequencies (counts and proportions). I.2. Understand the principles of frequentist probability theory. I.3.Understand the relationship between sample proportions and probabilities. I.4. Compute probabilities using the Additive, Multiplicative and Complementary rules. I.5.Understand the concept of the random variable, and how probabilities are computed for random variables. I.6.Understand the implications of observing events with small probabilities (rare events). I..7. Compute and interpret conditional probabilities.

4. Problem Tasks – Part I Bowls, Urns, Dice Estimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, Dice Compare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice Random Variables Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the Definition Compute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables Probabilities Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability Model Compute Probabilities Using Computation Rules Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run Argument Compute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition Random Samples and Probabilities Estimate Probabilities from Samples Compare Samples and Probability Models Evaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples Four (4) cases from Part One will be presented on the First Hourly. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old first hourlies.

5. What is an hourly? An hourly is the same thing as an in-class test. How many problems will be on the hourly? There will be four (4) cases on the hourly, and you will write all four of them. What will the cases look like? The cases will be similar to cases that you have worked in class, and will be similar to cases from previous versions of the first hourly.

6. Will the problems count equally? Yes. There will be four (4) cases, at 25 points Maximum per case, for a total of 100 points maximum. Will there be partial credit? Yes, but be aware that full work and detail is required for full credit. Your work and details are the basis for scoring each case solution. What about the testing protocol and tool-sheet? The hourly is not a memory test. Hence, you are permitted the use of one (1) 8.5” by 11” sheet of paper. Put on this sheet whatever it is that you deem useful. You alone will use this sheet. Sign and abide by the test protocol that will accompany the hourly. What about the calculator? You must provide your own working calculator, and you must be able to use this calculator. Do not share calculators. Your calculator is your individual responsibility.

7. Notes for Study / Preparation Study for one case type at a time. Take notes as you go along. When you have finished study for all case types, compile your notes into a single tool sheet. Customize this tool sheet for your own personal use.

8. Some Advice Check your calculator’s health before the exam. Bring pens, and work the test in ink – or bring pre- sharpened pencils. Be sure to study your weakest areas. Study more recent material earlier, then work backwards. Tailor your tool-sheets to your individual needs. Recall that discussion and interpretation typically comprise about 40% of earned credit on individual cases. Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in the cases.