1. Crisis Action Planning & the Commander’s Estimate Process 23 February 2001

2. PurposePurpose To present MPAT doctrine for crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimate

3. JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures CJCSM 3122.01Joint Operation Planning & Execution System (JOPES), Volume I (Planning Policies & Procedures) CJCSM 3122.03JOPES, Volume II (Planning Formats & Guidance) JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures CJCSM 3122.01Joint Operation Planning & Execution System (JOPES), Volume I (Planning Policies & Procedures) CJCSM 3122.03JOPES, Volume II (Planning Formats & Guidance) ReferencesReferences

4. u Six phase process u Key Documents – Warning & Alert Orders – Commander’s Estimate u Requires Concurrent and Collaborative Planning u Six phase process u Key Documents – Warning & Alert Orders – Commander’s Estimate u Requires Concurrent and Collaborative Planning Key Points Develop a Military Course of Action Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:

5. u Threat to national interest u Develops rapidly u May require military response u Threat to national interest u Develops rapidly u May require military response What is a Crisis?

6. u Over 70 crisis events in past 10 years u No OPLANs apply u Over 70 crisis events in past 10 years u No OPLANs apply Why CAP?

7. u Rapid exchange of information u Analysis of situations affecting possible COAs u Development of feasible COAs u Decisionmaking process to select best COAs u Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions made u Rapid exchange of information u Analysis of situations affecting possible COAs u Development of feasible COAs u Decisionmaking process to select best COAs u Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions made CAP Process Features

8. Crisis Action Planning Process STRAT. CDR/NCA Level ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessmentIVCOASelectionIVCOASelection VI Execution VI Execution CTF Level CAPcrisis action planning COAcourse of action CAPcrisis action planning COAcourse of action Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment PlanningPlanning Execution IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopmentVExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning Form JTF HQ Form JTF HQCAPCAP

9. SITUATIONDEVELOPMENTSITUATIONDEVELOPMENTCRISISASSESSMENTCRISISASSESSMENTCOADEVELOPMENTCOADEVELOPMENTCOASELECTIONCOASELECTIONEXECUTIONPLANNINGEXECUTIONPLANNINGEXECUTIONEXECUTION IIIIIIIIIIIIIVIVVVVIVI CTFOPERATIONALCTFOPERATIONAL CTF HQ FORMATION FORMATION EXECUTE ORDER EXECUTE ORDER ALERT/PLANNING ORDER ALERT/PLANNING ORDER AugmentationAugmentation WARNING ORDER CAT/OPTCAT/OPT COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE WARNING ORDER CJTF’s OPORD CJTF’s OPORD HIGHCON/NCA’s ASSESSMENT HIGHCON/NCA’s ASSESSMENT COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE CINC’s OPORD CINC’s OPORD CAP Process

10. Phase I: Situation Development CRISIS STRAT CDR’S ASSESSMENT Nature of the Crisis Forces Available Major Constraints Action Being Taken COAs Being Considered Nature of the Crisis Forces Available Major Constraints Action Being Taken COAs Being Considered NCA STRAT COM

11. CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase I ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process

12. Phase II: Crisis Assessment CTF WARNORD National Interests National Objectives Crisis Determination National Interests National Objectives Crisis Determination WARNORD STRAT COM NCA

13. ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase II

14. Warning Order Guidance and InstructionsGuidance and Instructions SituationSituation C2 RelationshipsC2 Relationships Mission, Objective, and AssumptionsMission, Objective, and Assumptions Allocate Forces and Trans AssetsAllocate Forces and Trans Assets SituationSituation C2 RelationshipsC2 Relationships Mission, Objective, and AssumptionsMission, Objective, and Assumptions Allocate Forces and Trans AssetsAllocate Forces and Trans Assets

15. Phase III: COA Development NCA COMMANDER’SESTIMATE COMMANDER’SESTIMATE WARNORDWARNORD ACTIVATION / WARNING ORDER CTF STRAT CDR

16. ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessmentIIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment Form CTF HQ Form STRAT CDR’S WARNORD WARNORD If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR (CTF components may be activated for planning) CTF WARNORD to CTF components CTF WARNORD to CTF components Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR (CTF components may be activated for planning) CTF WARNORD to CTF components CTF WARNORD to CTF components Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Conduct Commander’s Estimate process CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase III

17. CAP & The Commander’s Estimate Process CRISISCRISIS ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopment IICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessment IV Course of ActionSelectionIV ActionSelection VExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning WarningOrderWarningOrder PlanningOrderPlanningOrder AlertOrderAlertOrder ExecuteOrderExecuteOrder OPORD&TPFDDOPORD&TPFDD VIExecutionVIExecution AND/ORAND/ORI Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission I Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission II Course of Action DevelopmentII DevelopmentIII Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action III Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action V Commander’ s Decision III Course of Action Development Commander’s Estimate Process

18. Commander’s Estimate The Commander’s Estimate submitted by the supported commander in response to a STRAT CDR’S Warning Order, provides the STRAT CDR with time-sensitive information for consideration by the NCA in meeting a crisis situation. Essentially, it reflects the supported commander’s analysis of the various COAs that may be used to accomplish the mission and contains recommendations as to the best COA.

19. Commander’s Estimate COA Recommendation Remarks MissionMission Situation and Courses of Action (COA)Situation and Courses of Action (COA) Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs Comparison of own COAsComparison of own COAs MissionMission Situation and Courses of Action (COA)Situation and Courses of Action (COA) Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs Comparison of own COAsComparison of own COAs

20. Paragraph 1: Mission Statement CTF Commander’s Restated Mission Statement List Essential Tasks List Essential Tasks CTF Commander’s Restated Mission Statement List Essential Tasks List Essential Tasks

21. Paragraph 2: Situation and Courses of Action 3 Subparagraphs (A) Considerations Affecting the Possible COAs (B) Crisis/Threat Analysis (C) Own COAs 3 Subparagraphs (A) Considerations Affecting the Possible COAs (B) Crisis/Threat Analysis (C) Own COAs Include Only Minimum Information Necessary to Support the Recommendation The STRAT CDR is Primarily Concerned With the Results, Not the Analysis

22. Considerations Affecting Possible COAs AssumptionsAssumptions Factors that effect Crisis Weather Terrain Medical Conditions NGO/PVO Support Logistics Time/Space Factors Characteristics of the Combined Opns Area Topography Hydrography WX/Climate Transportation Telecommunications Politics, Economics, etc.

23. Threat/Crisis Factors These factors are those events that could occur and, if they do occur, will affect the accomplishment of the mission... These factors are those events that could occur and, if they do occur, will affect the accomplishment of the mission... Development of Threat/Crisis Factors Key What events can occur that will worsen the crisis?What events can occur that will worsen the crisis? Would these materially affect mission accomplishment?Would these materially affect mission accomplishment? Development of Threat/Crisis Factors Key What events can occur that will worsen the crisis?What events can occur that will worsen the crisis? Would these materially affect mission accomplishment?Would these materially affect mission accomplishment?

24. Own COAs u Normally limited to two or three COAs u Forces required u Force provider u Destination u Required delivery dates u Coordinated deployment estimate u Employment estimate u Strategic lift requirements, if appropriate u Normally limited to two or three COAs u Forces required u Force provider u Destination u Required delivery dates u Coordinated deployment estimate u Employment estimate u Strategic lift requirements, if appropriate Suitable, Feasible, Acceptable, & Distinguishable

25. Paragraph 3: Analysis of Opposing COAs Paragraph 3 describes in some detail the results of wargaming COAs during Crisis Action Planning. Description should illustrate that the commander considered the most significant and influential factors, events, and consequences. MDCOAMDCOAMPCOAMPCOA

26. u Normally the supporting tools (decision matrix) used in the analysis are not included in the final document u For the submission to the STRAT CDR, include only the final statement of conclusions u Advantages and disadvantages if significant in assisting the STRAT CDR in arriving at a decision u Normally the supporting tools (decision matrix) used in the analysis are not included in the final document u For the submission to the STRAT CDR, include only the final statement of conclusions u Advantages and disadvantages if significant in assisting the STRAT CDR in arriving at a decision Paragraph 4: Comparison of Own COAs Comparison Criteria

27. May give the rationale used by the commander in the decision process Supported Commander’s recommended COA Paragraph 5: Recommended COA

28. Miscellaneous comments that bear directly on the operation planning Paragraph 6: Remarks Forces required for a COA that are not yet officially apportioned Caveats to COAs if strategic or operational situation changes – Intervention of a third party – Impact of a major disaster (volcano, flood, hurricane, etc.) – Impending refugee problem Recommended changes to ROE Forces required for a COA that are not yet officially apportioned Caveats to COAs if strategic or operational situation changes – Intervention of a third party – Impact of a major disaster (volcano, flood, hurricane, etc.) – Impending refugee problem Recommended changes to ROE

29. Commander’s Estimate Lessons Learned u Don’t parrot the STRAT CDR’s Mission in the Mission Paragraph – Tailor to operational level mission – Use to clarify and narrow the mission u Avoid a complete historical discussion of the problem in Paragraph 2 – Concentrate on recent or unfolding events – Don’t forget political or societal events that affect the mission – Highlight approaching trigger events that would dramatically alter or accelerate events u Don’t parrot the STRAT CDR’s Mission in the Mission Paragraph – Tailor to operational level mission – Use to clarify and narrow the mission u Avoid a complete historical discussion of the problem in Paragraph 2 – Concentrate on recent or unfolding events – Don’t forget political or societal events that affect the mission – Highlight approaching trigger events that would dramatically alter or accelerate events

30. Lessons Learned (Cont.) u Keep COAs at operational level – Avoid tactical details; work at component and major force level – Omit detail not critical to the general concept u Give each COA a short, descriptive name – Massive force option, air option, low vis option u Don’t forget the end state and conflict termination u Keep COAs at operational level – Avoid tactical details; work at component and major force level – Omit detail not critical to the general concept u Give each COA a short, descriptive name – Massive force option, air option, low vis option u Don’t forget the end state and conflict termination

31. Phase IV: COA Selection CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES Begins: Recommended COA presented to the NCA Ends: NCA Decision in a Planning or Alert Order CTF ACTIONS Staff Prepares Plan Staff Prepares Plan Force Preparation Force Preparation Deployability Posture Reports Deployability Posture Reports React to NCA/STRAT CDR Modifications and Changes React to NCA/STRAT CDR Modifications and Changes Refine Estimates and Resolves Identified Shortfalls Refine Estimates and Resolves Identified Shortfalls Major Focus of Activity is NCA

32. UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessmentIVCOASelectionIVCOASelectionIIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopment Form CTF HQ Form STRAT CDR’s WARNORD WARNORD If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR (CTF components may be activated for planning) CTF WARNORD to CTF components CTF WARNORD to CTF components Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR (CTF components may be activated for planning) CTF WARNORD to CTF components CTF WARNORD to CTF components Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Prep for execution planning Prep for execution planning CTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF componentsCTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF components Prep for execution planning Prep for execution planning CTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF componentsCTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF components STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/or ALERTORD STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/or ALERTORD CTF Tasks in CAP, Phase IV

33. CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONS Begins: Receipt of Planning or Alert Order Ends: Decision to Execute (Execution Order) Begins: Receipt of Planning or Alert Order Ends: Decision to Execute (Execution Order) Identify and Assign Tasks to Units Identify and Assign Tasks to Units Converts COA into OPORD Converts COA into OPORD TPFDD Updated TPFDD Updated Units May Begin Deployment Units May Begin Deployment Service Reporting Service Reporting Review Force Support Requirements Review Force Support Requirements Resolve Shortfalls and Limitations Resolve Shortfalls and Limitations Complete country clearances Complete country clearances Identify and Assign Tasks to Units Identify and Assign Tasks to Units Converts COA into OPORD Converts COA into OPORD TPFDD Updated TPFDD Updated Units May Begin Deployment Units May Begin Deployment Service Reporting Service Reporting Review Force Support Requirements Review Force Support Requirements Resolve Shortfalls and Limitations Resolve Shortfalls and Limitations Complete country clearances Complete country clearances Phase V: Execution Planning

34. UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessmentIVCOASelectionIVCOASelectionIIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopmentVExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning Form CTF HQ Form STRAT CDR’s WARNORD WARNORD If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Prep to participate in the CAP process Prep to participate in the CAP process If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies If CTF established, monitor situation If CTF established, monitor situation Review existing plans & area studies Review existing plans & area studies Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR (CTF components may be activated for planning) CTF WARNORD to CTF components CTF WARNORD to CTF components Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR Commence participation in the CAP process as directed by STRAT CDR (CTF components may be activated for planning) CTF WARNORD to CTF components CTF WARNORD to CTF components Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Conduct Commander’s Estimate process Prep for execution planning Prep for execution planning CTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF componentsCTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF components Prep for execution planning Prep for execution planning CTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF componentsCTF PLANORD &/or ALERTORD to CTF components Develop OPORD Develop OPORD Develop TPFDD reqtsDevelop TPFDD reqts Validate TPFDD reqts to STRAT CDR Validate TPFDD reqts to STRAT CDR Monitor TPFDD build Monitor TPFDD build Issue OPORDIssue OPORD Develop OPORD Develop OPORD Develop TPFDD reqtsDevelop TPFDD reqts Validate TPFDD reqts to STRAT CDR Validate TPFDD reqts to STRAT CDR Monitor TPFDD build Monitor TPFDD build Issue OPORDIssue OPORD STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/or ALERTORD STRAT CDR’s PLANORD &/or ALERTORD STRAT CDR’s OPORD OPORD JTF Tasks in CAP, Phase V

35. CRISIS ACTION PROCEDURES CTF ACTIONS Begins: NCA Decision to execute OPORD Ends: Crisis Resolved Begins: NCA Decision to execute OPORD Ends: Crisis Resolved NCA Publishes Execute Order, STRAT CDR Transmits to CTF NCA Publishes Execute Order, STRAT CDR Transmits to CTF CTF Executes OPORD CTF Executes OPORD TPFDD Maintained TPFDD Maintained Evaluate Reception & Onward Movement Capabilities Evaluate Reception & Onward Movement Capabilities Continuous Reporting Continuous Reporting NCA Publishes Execute Order, STRAT CDR Transmits to CTF NCA Publishes Execute Order, STRAT CDR Transmits to CTF CTF Executes OPORD CTF Executes OPORD TPFDD Maintained TPFDD Maintained Evaluate Reception & Onward Movement Capabilities Evaluate Reception & Onward Movement Capabilities Continuous Reporting Continuous Reporting Phase VI: Execution

36. Crisis Action Planning Process NCA/STRAT CDR Level ISituationDevelopmentISituationDevelopmentIICrisisAssessmentIICrisisAssessmentIVCOASelectionIVCOASelection VI Execution VI Execution CTF Level CAPcrisis action planning COAcourse of action CAPcrisis action planning COAcourse of action Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment PlanningPlanning Execution IIICOADevelopmentIIICOADevelopmentVExecutionPlanningVExecutionPlanning Form JTF HQ Form JTF HQCAPCAP

37. u By definition, an environment of rapidly changing events – Planning time varying from hours to months u CAP intended to be flexible – Six phases “conducted sequentially, concurrently, compressed, or eliminated altogether” CAP Flexibility

38. CAP Orders in Recent Operations CAP Orders in Recent Operations WARNORDPLORDALORDDEPORDEXORD PROVIDE RELIEF (Somalia)XXX PROVIDE COMFORT (N. Iraq)XXXX PROVIDE HOPE (Russia)XX PROVIDE PROMISE (Yugo)XXXX ABLE SENTRY (Macedonia)XX Haiti Advisory Group (Haiti)XX VIGILANT WARRIOR (Iraq)XX UPHOLD DEMOCRACY (Haiti) XX XXX DESERT STRIKE (Iraq) XX X

39. Questions?