1. 1 Defense Programs Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U” July 2008 Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing

2. 2 Defense Programs Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis Computing

3. 3 Defense Programs Balancing Act in building Confidence Representing the Science –Hydrodynamics –Turbulence –Equations of State –Neutron Chain Reactions –Material Properties, Strengths –Shocks and Material Interfaces –Material Deformation, Plastic Flow –Nuclear and Thermonuclear Reactions –Electronics. Electrical Systems –Energetic Materials, Chemical Reactions –Heat Flow –Opacities –Magneto-hydrodynamics –Plasmas –Lasers –Radiation and Charged Particle Transport Solving the Problems –LEPs –SFIs –Engineering –Safety –Threat Reduction –Secure Transportation –ICF Supplying the Tools –Codes –Models –Platforms –Vis Capabilities –Expertise –Facilities –QMU Undervalued Tool in building Confidence: A Sound Methodology for identifying, quantifying, understanding, and driving down uncertainties

4. 4 Defense Programs National Decision-Basis Computing

5. 5 Defense Programs Delivery of Validated Tools We Know all the Science present We Understand all the Science present We Understand how all the Science behaves in all our Systems We Understand how all the Science would behave with variations on our Systems We have identified the key Science phenomena present We Understand most of the key Science present We Understand how most of the key Science behaves in our Systems We Understand how most of the key Science would behave with minor variations on our Systems

6. 6 Defense Programs Balancing Act in building Confidence Scientific Approach –Systematic –Directed –Based on Core Methodologies –Rigorous testing Sound Results –Reproducible –Consistent –Understandable Well Understood Uncertainties –Error Bounds –Physical-basis for free parameters –Relationship between approximations and exact solutions –Identification of Single and Aggregate Uncertainties Measures of Progress –Predictive Capability Framework –V&V Assessments –Milestones –External Reviews –Reduced Uncertainties in baselines –Increased usage Looking to build confidence in Methodologies and Measures …in addition to tools, people, and direction.

7. 7 Defense Programs