1. Integrated Transmission and Resource Assessment Byron Woertz Manager, System Adequacy Planning W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

2. Overview 2015 Integrated Transmission and Resource Assessment 2 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

3. ITRA Goals 3 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Summarize 2015 planning activites… …for all portions of System Adequacy Planning… …at the appropriate level of detail.

4. Context 2014 – The Current World Loads Generation Transmission 2024 – The Expected Future Loads Generation Transmission 2034 – Plausible Futures 4 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

5. Analyses – 10-Year 5 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Future Reliability Issues Ability to Meet Load Resource Mix Transmission Utilization

6. 10-Year Study Cases 6 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL Bookends Loads Hydro Gas Prices CO 2 Prices Other Studies Distributed PV Coal Retirements Extreme Renewable Penetration Energy Storage

7. Summary Observations – 10-Year No unserved load Path flow changes are heavily study-specific High renewable penetrations lead to high dump energy Incremental load tends to be served by coal or gas CO 2 price has a significant impact on resource mix Identifying coal units to retire presents many challenges 7 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

8. 20-Year Studies Focus during 2015 on model enhancements 2034 Reference Case and other study cases likely to be completed in 2016 8 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

9. Other Reliability Analyses in 2015 Flexibility analysis Energy-water-climate change nexus Clean power plan Planning for uncertainty Planning tool alignment NERC reliability assessments 9 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

10. Priorities for Future Work Uncertainties remain in planning for future needs Assumptions regarding future grid have significant impacts Greater collaboration needed with regions and other stakeholders More work needed on integrating variable energy resources and flexibility needs Continue to investigate gas-electric interface issues Continue to investigate California’s 50% RPS 10 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

11. ITRA Review Process Jan 21 Draft ITRA Posted Feb 8 Comments Due Feb 19 Revised Draft Posted Mar 1 Final Version Posted Mar 8 TEPPC Review and Possible Approval 11 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

12. 2016 Study Program Development Feb 1 Open Season Closes Feb – Mar SWG develops draft Study Program March 15 SWG and TAS approve draft program March 31 2026 Common Case Release April 5 Final Study Program posted April 12 Review and Approval 12 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

13. Contact Information Byron Woertz Manager – System Adequacy Planning bwoertz@wecc.biz (801) 883-6841 13 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL