1. Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol ______________ LDC Workshop Nairobi, Kenya Windsor Golf and Country Club 2-3 November 2006 M.J. Mace FIELD London

2. 2 Presentation Outline Framework Challenges Mitigation Challenge Political Challenges Process for Negotiation (AWG, Dialogue, Article 9)

3. 3 Post-2012 Framework Challenges Convention - aims to bring developed country GHG emissions back to 1990 levels toward stabilisation of concentrations Kyoto - aims to reduce overall developed country emissions by about 5% below 1990 levels over ‘first commitment period’ 2008-2012 Kyoto anticipates ‘subsequent’ commitment periods, but does not specify duration or goal

4. 4 Issues to be resolved What concentration level avoids dangerous climate change? (400?, 450? 500 ppm?) What overarching percent reduction in GHG emissions? Over what timeframe? How long should the second commitment period be? What types of commitments? How to apply the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ to developing countries? How to address adaptation?

5. 5 What is the role of the flexible mechanisms and sinks in the 2 nd CP? Should there be changes to the sectors and sources of emissions covered (e.g. international bunker fuels?) What role should non-Kyoto Parties play? (e.g., US, Australia) How can the Post-2012 climate regime draw in broader commitments from more countries? (e.g., China, India, Brazil) Should groups of developing countries be differentiated in a future framework? How?

6. 6 Mitigation Challenges Clearly major reductions are needed –IPCC 1995: stabilisation of CO2 requires an immediate reduction of 50-70% and further reductions thereafter; –IPCC 2001: GHGs need to be reduced to ‘a very small fraction of current emissions’ Impacts of climate change already being seen. Yet emissions continue to trend upwards

7. 7 Projected development of GHG emissions around the world Source: Presentation by Vildis Bisters, Ministry of Environment, Latvia, April 25, 2006, at workshop on ‘Scenarios and options for second commitment period, Baltic Perspective’

8. 8 Political challenges Some developed country Convention Parties with major emissions have decided not to ratify Kyoto Protocol – and thus are not working within a target (US, Australia) Some developing countries that have ratified Kyoto do not have targets but have rapidly increasing emissions (e.g., China).

9. 9 Developed countries with Kyoto targets – represented only 30% of total emissions in 2000. European Union –represented only 14% of emissions in 2000. Developing country emissions are increasing substantially –up 55% from 1990 – 2003 Vulnerable countries need to see global emission trends decrease in the short term to avoid dangerous climate change.

10. 10 How to address this dynamic? Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol required Parties with targets to begin discussion of the second commitment period no later than 7 years before the end of the first commitment period (2005). –With some countries not active in Kyoto, another process had to be found for engaging these countries.

11. 11 Two negotiating processes established to discussing future commitments Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group (AWG) –Open to all Parties –Considers future commitments for Annex I Parties Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention –Open to all Parties –Considers cooperative action to promote existing agreement under UNFCCC

12. 12 1. Ad Hoc Working Group on Article 3.9 Tasked to consider further commitments for Annex I Parties beyond 2012 - under the KP Aims to complete work as early as possible, to ensure no gap between first and second commitment periods Met in May and considered a process for its future work

13. 13 AWG results to date: Chair has produced an indicative list of topics relevant to the AWG’s work 1.Scientific basis for determining level of ambition for further Annex I commitments –Scenarios for stabilising GHG concentrations (to guide KP’s role in contributing to ultimate objective of UNFCCC) –Adverse impacts; costs of impacts and adaptation –Other relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information 2.Emissions trends, mitigation potential of Annex I Parties –Costs of impacts and adaptation –Socio-economic drivers, PAMs –Sectoral analyses and impacts on competitiveness

14. 14 3.Experience gained in implementing the KP methodologies, LULUCF, PAMS, flex mechs, demonstrable progress 4.Architecture of further commitments for Annex I Parties Length of commitment period review of sectors and sources of emissions differentiation and burden sharing feasibility of measures to complement targets, e.g., sectoral approaches contribution of flexible mechanisms incentives for development, deployment of technology 5.Legal matters Scope of amendments to Annex B, elements of KP to be amended or supplemented to give effect to Annex B amendments Entry into force of amendments to Annex B, avoidance of gap.

15. 15 AWG Future work Meets in November 2006 Will hold an in session workshop to allow presentation and exchange of relevant information - which could include: –Scientific basis for determining future commitments –Scenarios for stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations –Emission trends for Annex I Parties –Mitigation potential of policies an technologies in different national circumstances –Costs and benefits of emission reductions. IPCC will present at this event. See FCCC/KP/AWG/2006/L.2/Rev.1, (May 25, 2006)

16. 16 2. Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation of the Convention 4 workshops, first held May 15-16, 2006 Open-non-binding exchange of views To exchange experiences, discuss strategic approaches for long- term cooperative action on: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) addressing action on adaptation; (3) realising the full potential of technology; (4) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities. Informed by best available scientific information.

17. 17 Dialogue is designed to: –identify actions to promote research, development and deployment of cleaner technologies; –identify ways to support voluntary actions by developing countries –Identify ways to promote access by developing countries to climate-friendly technologies and technologies for adaptation.

18. 18 Dialogue results to date: First workshop took the form of an initial exchange of views, followed by discussion of the four thematic areas Far ranging discussions, constructive atmosphere, but recognised need for future sessions to have more focus Co-facilitators’ report in August presents proposals on how to organise the next Dialogue in Nairobi – two issues only: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities Dialogue reports will serve as an input to discussions at COP-12 and COP-13.

19. 19 3. Article 9 Review of the KP Parties are to periodically review the Kyoto Protocol in light of best available scientific information on climate change and its impacts and take appropriate action First review to take place at COP/MOP 2 Political and substantive linkages with discussions under AWG and Dialogue Could result in fundamental changes Nature and duration of review is contentious

20. 20 www.field.org.uk mj.mace@field.org.uk Tel: +44 20 7388-2117 Fax: +44 20 7388-2826 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1H 0DD United Kingdom