1. Partisans vs. Independents Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent –[If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? –[If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

2. Partisans vs. Independents As of 2008: –Strong D19 –Weak D15 –Ind D1751 D –Ind1111 I –Ind R1237 R –Weak R13 –Strong R13

3. Partisanship trends

4. Partisans vs. Independents When we lump independent ‘ leaners ’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984 Slight GOP gain –some oscillation What about those independents?

5. Partisans vs. Independents Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2006

6. Independents vs. Partisans

7. Partisans vs. Independents What do these responses mean? Party Identification strongest predictor of voting –learned early, social transmition –rarely changes over lifetime see F&Z figures

8. Partisans vs. Independents Funnel of Partisanship Causality social background Party attachments Values Groups campaign events vote Time (years & years)

9. Partisans vs. Independents Partisans –identify w/ party early –identification stronger over lifetime –partisans more interested in politics –Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party hence, elections somewhat predictable

10. Partisans vs. Independents Independents –fastest growing group of voters ‘ leaners ’ –ID as “ independent ” but say they are “ closer ” to one particular party –Leaners may act more ‘ partisan ’ than weak partisans sometimes Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R Highly interested

11. Partisans vs. Independents Independents –but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans –more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice –Important aspect of dealignment more independents, who are more volitile

12. Partisans vs. Independents Does a party represent you reasonably well

13. Partisans vs. Independents

14. Anderson (+ others) 1980 –26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R Perot 1992 –23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs Nader 2000 –8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps –0% from weak/strong partisans