1. Climate Variability in the Southeast NIDIS Southeast Pilot, Apalachicola Workshop Apalachicola, FL April 27, 2010 David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University

2. Seasonal Rainfall Patterns January Average Rainfall June Average Rainfall Nearly 60% of annual rainfall in west-central Florida comes in the months of June through September.

3. Typical Recharge in North Georgia - Courtesy SERFC

4. Response of Hydrologic Systems Apalachicola at Chattahoochee

5. Georgia Annual Rainfall

6. The El Niño /La Niña Cycle The El Niño /La Niña cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability in the Southeast.

7. Winter Jet Stream Patterns El Niño La Niña

8. El Niño Effects on Precipitation

9. La Niña Effects on Precipitation

10. ENSO and Flow Rates Apalachicola at Chattahoochee

11. Probabilistic Nature of Forecasts March - El Niño March - La Niña Normal 5.1 in.

12. Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

13. Current Conditions - Current Conditions - El Niño is here!

14. El Niño Impacts on Yield

15. For More Information www.agroclimate.org www.coaps.fsu.edu