1. Population
APES

2. Factors That Affect Human Population Size
Crude birth rate: the number of live birth per 1,000 individuals in one year.
Crude death rate: the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals in one year.
The annual rate of population change in percentage is: CBR – CDR
% change in population = 1, x 100%= %=
World 2005=1.21%
Europe 2005= -.7%
Developing = 1.8%
In USA, this number does not include immigration
14-8
X100%
= .6%
1000

3. US and world population growth rate
U.S. population growth rate in 1965 was 2%, now in 2009 it is .9% (including migration)
The U.S. is the third most populous country in the world. 306 million
World population 6.8 billion
Doubling time = rule of 70 : 70 divided by the population growth rate equals the doubling time in years
_70_
In the world there are babies born for every one heart beat
= 72 years

4. Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
World
All developed
countries
All developing
Developing
(w/o China) 22 9 11 10 25 29
Fig. 11.2a, p. 239

5. Africa Latin America Asia Oceania United States North Europe 38 14 246 22 8 18 7 15 9 10 11
Fig. 11.2b, p. 239

6. Population Growth Rate
Annual world
population growth
<1%
1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data not
available
Fig. 11.3, p. 240

7. % population growth rate - worldwide
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Growth rate (percent)
Year
Fig. 11.4, p. 240

8. China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia Bangladesh Japan
1.26 billion
1.4 billion
India
1 billion
1.4 billion
USA
276 million
338 million
Indonesia
212 million
273 million
Brazil
170 million
221 million
Pakistan
151 million
227 million
Russia
145 million
137 million
Bangladesh
128 million
177 million
Japan
127 million
121 million
Nigeria
123 million
205 million
Fig. 11.5, p. 241
2000
2025

9. Asia 3.7 billion 4.7 billion Europe 728 million 714 million Africa
Latin
America
518 million
703 million
North
America
306 million
374 million
Oceania
31 million
39 million
Fig. 11.6, p. 241
2000
2025

10. Measuring Global Fertility Rate
Replacement fertility rate: the number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves
2.1 for developed countries
2.5 for developing countries
Even after lowering fertility rates to replacement level, it will take 50 – 60 years for the population to stabilize

11. Total fertility rate (TFR):
an estimate of the number of children a women will have during her child bearing years.
Worldwide TFR = in
1.7 in developed countries, 3.85 in developing countries, can be a high as 6 in some countries like Africa.
Europe TFR = 1.5
USA TFR = 2.1
Hispanic= 2.9
Asian = 1.9
Black = 2.2
White = 1.8
At a TFR of 2.9 with no limits to population growth, in 150 years there will be 296 billion people on this planet

12. World 5 children per women 2.9 Developed 2.5 countries 1.5 Developing
6.5
3.2
Africa
6.6
5.3
Latin
America
5.9
2.8
Asia
5.9
2.8
Oceania
3.8
2.4
North
America
3.5
2.0
Europe
2.6
1.4
Fig. 11.7, p. 241
1950
2000

13. Births per woman < 2 4-4.9 2-2.9 5+ Data not available 3-3.9
Fig. 11.8, p. 242

14. Population Estimates for 205012 11
High
High
10.7 10
Medium
Low 9
Medium
8.9 8
Population (billion) 7 6
Low
7.3 5 4 3 2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Fig. 11.9, p. 242
Year

15. . Fertility In The U.S. 306+ million people in the U.S.
Peak TFR was 3.7 in 1957 during the baby boom
In 2009 growth rate was .97 %, 56% of this was babies being born and 44% was immigration.
In 2000 there were 7.1 million babies born, 900,000 legal immigrants, 300,000 illegal immigrants
By 2050 the U.S. population is expected to reach 439,000

16. . Fertility In The U.S.
The 4 main reasons for such high growth in the U.S.
1. Large numbers of women from the baby boom are still in childbearing years.
There has been a large increase in potential mothers in recent years, although TFR has remained stable.
2. High # of unmarried women bearing children
3. High TFR in certain ethnic groups
4. High levels of immigration
Teen Pregnancy 15-19
Total per 1000 births
World = 50
USA = 53
LDC = 112
MDC =24
Europe = 5.8
Japan = 3.5

17. California Fertility 1. most populous state in the nation
2. 34 million people, expected to rise to 39 million by 2020
3. Since 1985 the CA TFR rose from 1.9 to 2.5 because immigrants have high fertility.
Increases in population size has caused wetland destruction, air pollution, more endangered species than any other continental state except for Texas.

18. TFR in the US
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Births per woman
Fig , p. 243

19. Births per thousand population32 30 28 26 24
Births per thousand population 22 20
World War II 18 16
Demographic
transition 14
Depression
Baby boom
Baby bust
Echo baby boom
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Fig , p. 243

20. 98% 100% 98% 99.6% 97% 98% 95% 95% 93% Highly Effective
Extremely Effective
Total abstinence
IUD with slow-release
hormones
98%
100%
Sterilization
IUD plus spermicide
99.6%
98%
Hormonal implant
(Norplant)
Vaginal pouch
(“female condom”)
98%
97%
IUD
95%
Condom (good brand)
plus spermicide
95%
Oral contraceptive
93%
Fig a, p. 244

21. 89% 75% 86% 74% 74% 84% 70% 84% 83% 82% 40% 10% Effective
Moderately Effective
Cervical cap
Spermicide (creams,
jellies, suppositories)
89%
75%
Condom
(good brand)
Rhythm method (daily
temperature readings)
86%
74%
Diaphragm
plus spermicide
84%
Withdrawl
74%
Rhythm method (Billings,
Sympto-Thermal)
Condom
(cheap brand)
84%
70%
Vaginal sponge impreg-
nated with spermicide
83%
Spermicide (foam)
82%
Unreliable
Douche
40%
Chance
(no method)
10%
Fig b, p. 244

22. Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate
Developed Countries 50 40
Rate of
natural increase 30
Rate per 1,000 people
Crude
birth rate 20
Crude
death rate 10
Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate
1775
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Year
Fig a, p. 245

23. Developing Countries 50 Crude birth rate 40 Rate of natural increase30
Rate per 1,000 people
Crude
death rate 20 10
1775
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Year
Fig b, p. 245

24. Factors that Influence Birth and Fertility Rates
Average level of education and affluence (high education=low TFR)
Importance of children as part of the labor force
Urbanization (urbanization=lower fertility rates)
Cost of raising and educating children
Educational and employment opportunities for women
Infant mortality rate (high infant mortality rate=high TFR)
Average age at marriage (younger=more kids)
Availability of pension plans (pension plan=less kids)
Availability of legal abortions
Availability of birth control
Religious beliefs, traditions, norms
Economic rewards and penalties for bearing children (Like China)

25. Factors that Influence Death Rates
The rise in world population in the last 100 years is not a result of huge increases in CBR, but is due to decreases in CDR
This is due to better food supplies, medicine, better sanitation, and safer water
The two most useful indicators of overall health of a population:
Life expectancy: Europe, 79 U.S., Average 76 developed, 52 developing
infant mortality rates: # of babies out of every 1,000 born that die before the age of one (this is the single most important factor to measure a society’s overall quality of life)
Infant Mortality
Deaths per 1000
Live births
Life Expectancy
World = 66.5
USA = 77.9, Male = 75.2, Female = 80.6
USA = 6.9
Europe = 4.5
World = 57
LDC = 97
MDC = 7.7

26. <10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available
Infant deaths per 1,000
live births
<10
10-35
36-70
71-100
100+
Data not
available
Fig , p. 246

27. Deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births
110
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1920
Years
Deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births
Fig , p. 246

28. Migration Voluntary – provides migrant labor
Involuntary – 25 million environmental refugees
Only 1% of annual population growth in developing countries is absorbed by developed countries
Immigration in the U.S.
11-12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.
35 million legal
75%, 90% if illegal immigrants are counted, of them are in California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Texas, and Florida
The U.S. wants to slow legal and illegal immigration to slow population growth

29. Number of legal immigrants (thousands)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
1820
1840
1880
1860
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2010
Year
Number of legal immigrants (thousands)
1907
1914
New laws restrict immigration
Great Depression
Fig , p. 250

30. Pros Often take jobs natives won’t do
They increase the supply of available goods
They boost economy by buying goods
They pay taxes

31. Cons Work for lower wages and take jobs from Natives
States bear the costs and the federal
government collects all the taxes
Laws to catch illegal immigrants do not work

32. Population Age Structure
Age structure diagram: shows the proportion of the population at each age level
prereproductive: 0-14
reproductive: 15-44
post-reproductive: 45+

33. The percentage of the population at each age level
# of women of reproductive age (50% of world’s women)
# of women under the age of 15 (29% of world, 42% of Africa, 32% developing, 17% developed)
The more women under age of 15 the more momentum for growth
Youthful age structures lead to high unemployment rates

34. Male Female Male Female Rapid Growth Slow Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
Fig a, p. 247

35. Male Female Male Female Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
Fig b, p. 247

36. Declining Population If the decline is slow a country can manage
If decline is rapid, there is a larger number of older people putting strains on medical, social security, and public services, with less young people to pay for it.
Also less young people mean smaller military.

37. AIDS Tragedy
Between 2000 and 2005 aids will kill 278 million people (almost the size of the US)
Kills young adults which support the young and the old. In some African countries as many as 39% of the population is affected.
Analysts call for financial assistance and education to slow this down. Should we intervene?

38. Population (millions)
85+
80-85
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
300
200
100
100
200
300
Population (millions)
Fig a, p. 247

39. Population (millions)
85+
80-85
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
Female
300
200
100
100
200
300
Population (millions)
Fig b, p. 247

40. Population (2000) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate
276 million
United States (highly developed)
170 million
123 million
Brazil (moderately developed)
Population
projected
(2025)
Nigeria (less developed)
338 million
221 million
205 million
Infant
mortality
rate 7 38 77
Life
expectancy
77 years
68 years
52 years
Fertility
rate (TFR)
2.1
2.4
6.0
%Population
under
age 15
21%
30%
44%
% Population
over
age 65
13% 5% 3%
Per capita
GNP
(1998)
$29,240
$4,630
$300
Fig , p. 248

41. Age structure can be used to predict population changes.
For example: baby boomers create changes in population dynamics as they move through the age structure. They create competition for jobs, dominate demands for goods and services and have political control. As they age their needs become a burden to the baby bust generation (genration x). Echo-boom generation largest generation ever

42. Age Age 1955 1985 Millions Millions
Females
Males
Females
Males 24 20 20 16 16 12 12 8
1955 8
1985 4 4 4 4 8 8 12 12 16
Millions
Millions 16 20 20 24
Fig a, p. 248

43. Age Age 1955 2035 Millions Millions
Females
Males
Females
Males 20 20 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 8
1955 4
2035 4 4 4 8 8 12 12 16 16 20 20
Millions 24 24
Millions
Fig b, p. 248

44. Reducing Births PROS better than raising death rate
we already fail to provide basic necessities for one-fifth of the world
over pop. Is the main reason for environmental degradation and resource over consumption
technology is the key to economic power, not more people
freedom to reproduce should only apply if it does not reduce the quality of other peoples lives
CONS
*people live longer
*some people believe that the world can support millions more
*people are our most valuable resource

45. Births and Economic Development
1. demographic transition = hypothesis of population change.
As countries become more industrialized, first their death rates, then birth rates decline. This is done in 4 stages.
a. preindustrial stage - harsh living conditions contribute to high birth rate & death rate (little population growth)
b. transitional stage - industrialization begins, food production rises, health care improves, death rates drop, births remain high, and population grows.
c. industrial stage - industrialization is widespread, birth rate drops & approaches death rate (due to birth control) decline in infant mortality, increased job opportunities for women, high cost of raising children.
d. postindustrial stage - birth rates decline further = ZPG until the population growth rate decreases, shift to a sustainable form of economic development. (Most Western European countries are in this stage = 12% of the world’s population.
2. Some developing countries may have difficulty making the demographic transition because they lack capital and resources to move to stage 3 or 4.

46. Relative population size Birth rate and death rate
Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
Low
High
Relative population size
(number per 1,000 per year)
Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Birth rate
Death rate
Total population
Low
growth rate
Increasing Growth
growth rate
Very high
growth rate
Decreasing
growth rate
Low
growth rate
Zero
growth rate
Negative
growth rate
Time
Fig , p. 255

47. Family Planning & Birth Reduction
= provides educational and clinical services to help couples choose how many and when to have children.
a. Family planning is responsible for a 40% drop in fertility rates in developing countries.
b. helps to reduce the need for social services.
c. may reduce legal and illegal abortions.
d. coupled with prenatal care & health services, family planning can reduce the risk of childbearing.
e. reduces the birth and fertility rates in populous countries such as China, Indonesia, Brazil, & Bangladesh.
1. there has been a 6-fold increase in the use of contraceptives in the last 2 decades for married women.
2. couples see fewer benefits of large families due to lack of available land, unstable farming conditions, extensive flooding & government supplied mass media messages.
(U.S. has 1/5 of the abortions -242,000/yr)

48. Economic rewards & penalties for reduced births
1. payments for using contraceptives or sterilization (either to women or their doctors).
2. penalize couples for more than 1 or 2 children (raise their taxes, charge other fees, or eliminate income tax deductions for third child, loss of health care benefits, food allotment, job options.

49. Empowering Women
1. women with an education & a job outside the home have fewer children.
2. women work 2/3’s of all hours worked and receive 1/10 of the world’s income & own less than 2% of the world’s property.
3. In most developing countries, women don’t have the legal rights to own land or borrow $.
4. women make up 70% of the world’s poor & 2/3’s are illiterate.

50. Reducing population growth
Help countries develop and implement national population policies UNPFA
Provide universal access to family planning
Reduce poverty
Provide better healthcare and nutritious food supplements
Provide universal education with emphasis on girls
Improve the status of women
Nutritious school lunch programs
Increase the involvement of men in child rearing and family planning
Sharply reduce unsustainable patterns of production and consumption

51. 4:45 A.M.
Wake,
wash, and
eat
5:00 A.M.-
5:30 A.M.
Walk to
fields
5:30 P.M.-
3:00 P.M.
Work in
fields
3:00 P.M.-
4:00 P.M.
Collect
firewood
4:00 P.M.-
5:30 P.M.
Pound and
grind corn
5:30 P.M.-
6:30 P.M.
Collect
water
6:30 P.M.-
8:30 P.M.
Cook for
family and
eat
8:30 P.M.-
9:30 P.M.
Wash
dishes
and children
9:30 P.M.
Go to bed
Fig , p. 256

52. Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary40
1945
41.9 workers 30 20
Number of workers supporting
each Social Security beneficiary
1950
16.5 10
2075
1.9
1945
2000
2050
2075
Fig , p. 249

53. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
2110
2130
2150
Year
Age Distribution (%)
Fig , p. 249
Under age 15
Age 60 or over
Age 80 or over

54. State of the World 1900 2000 2100 Year Industrial output Food
Resources
Population
Pollution
Fig a, p. 251

55. Material Standard of Living
1900
2000
2100
Year
Consumer goods
per person
Services
per person
Food per person
Life expectancy
Fig b, p. 251

56. State of the World 1900 2000 2100 Year Industrial output Food
Resources
Population
Pollution
Fig a, p. 254

57. Material Standard of Living
1900
2000
2100
Year
Consumer goods
per person
Food per person
Services
Life expectancy
Fig b, p. 254

58. Condom 5% Male sterilization 5% Pill 8% Other No method methods 43%
10%
No method
43%
IUD
12%
Female sterilization
17%
Fig , p. 255

59. India China Percentage of world 16% population 21% Population (2000)
1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
25%
Population growth rate (%)
1.8%
0.9%
Total fertility rate
3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate 72 31
Life expectancy
61 years
71 years
GNP per capita
(1998)
Fig , p. 257
$440
$750