1. J Impact of aviation emissions on the Arctic environment GEM-AC model simulations Jacek W. Kaminski – York University, Canada Magdalena Porebska – Warsaw University of Technology, Poland Joanna Struzewska – Warsaw University of Technology, Poland August 17, 2014

2. Outline  Objectives  Modelling approach  Model applications  Model validation  Aviation emission and scenarios  Arctic observations

3. Project Objectives  Model application and validation  Improvements  Evaluation, validation, comparison with observations  Model inter-comparison  Study of aviation emission deposition in the UTLS and resulting interaction with the atmosphere  Scenario runs with and without aviation emissions  Particular attention is given to the Arctic which dominates much of the Canadian air space  Higher model resolution over the Arctic

4. Modelling Framework  On-line implementation of stratospheric and tropospheric gas phase chemistry and aerosols in the Canadian operational weather forecast model the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model (version 3.3.2)  Model top at 60km (0.1 hPa)  Chemistry  gas phase – 75 species and 195 chemical reactions,  Photochemistry – 45 reactions  Wet chemistry  Heterogeneous chemistry  Aerosols  Sectional model – 5 aerosol types in 12 bins each  M7 aerosol model  Coagulation, nucleation, aerosol activation  Climate physics  Ozone and water from chemistry is used in radiation calculations  Initial conditions (meteorology and chemistry) for future climate in 2026 and 2050 are taken from GEM-Clim

5. GEM-AC Modules  On-line implementation  Tracer transport  Tracer convection  Tracer vertical diffusion  Gas phase chemistry (75 species and families, 240 reactions)  Photodissociation rates (J values from MESSy)  Wet chemistry  Dry and wet deposition  Aerosol chemistry and physics  Anthropogenic, Biogenic and Fire emissions  Lightning NOx emissions  Aviation emissions using AEDT from FAA

6. Outline  Objectives  Modelling approach  Model applications  Model validation  Aviation emission and scenarios  Arctic observations

7. Smoke event at Eureka (23–24 July 2007) Smoke column animation for July 16–24 Fires burning North of Khabarovsk, Russia

8. Smoke event at Eureka (12 April 2008) HCN at ~500 hPa for April 4–14 Fires burning East of Lake Baikal, Russia at the beginning of April

9. Thule Hornsund AOD at Thule and Hornsund – April 2008

10. Outline  Objectives  Modelling approach  Model applications  Model validation  Aviation emission and scenarios  Arctic observations

11. Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Data Products  ACE-FTS profiles:  Tracers: H 2 O, O 3, N 2 O, NO, NO 2, HNO 3, N 2 O 5, H 2 O 2, HO 2 NO 2, N 2  Halogen-containing gases: HCl, HF, ClONO 2, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, COF 2, COCl 2, COFCl, CF 4, SF 6, CH 3 Cl, CCl 4, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, HCFC- 142b  Carbon-containing gases: CO, CH 4, CH 3 OH, H 2 CO, HCOOH, C 2 H 2, C 2 H 4, C 2 H 6, OCS, HCN and pressure / temperature from CO 2 lines  Isotopologues: Minor species of H 2 O, CO 2, O 3, N 2 O CO, CH 4, OCS  Research species: ClO, acetone, PAN (peroxyacetyl nitrate), etc.  MAESTRO profiles:  O 3, NO 2, optical depth and aerosol (water vapor being developed)  IMAGERS profiles:  Atmospheric extinction at 0.5 and 1.02 microns (aerosols in v3.0)

12. 90–60S 60–30S 30S–EQ EQ–30N 30–60N 60–90N DJF MAM JJA SON

13. 90–60S 60–30S 30S–EQ EQ–30N 30–60N 60–90N DJF MAM JJA SON

14. Summer 2006 Ozone mixing ratio (ppm) at ~12 km Ozone filaments over the Arctic

15. Outline  Objectives  Modelling approach  Model applications  Model validation  Aviation emission and scenarios  Arctic observations

16. Aviation emission scenarios  The U.S. Department of Transportation ’ s Volpe Center is supporting the Federal Aviation Administration ’ s (FAA) Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) by providing emissions and fuel burn data for global commercial aviation for 2006 - reference year.  The data are provided at two levels of resolution, grid, and chord. The gridded data provides aggregate fuel burn and emissions for a 1-degree latitude by 1 degree longitude by 500ft altitude grid.  2050 Baseline: This scenario is labeled do nothing with regard to technology and operational improvements. The 2050 fleet is developed by retiring and replacing older aircraft.  2050 Scenario 1 (Aggressive Technology and Operations): In this scenario a one-time 10 percent operational improvement is applied to all aircraft operating in 2050. In addition, a 2 percent per annum improvement in aircraft technology is applied to all aircraft entering the fleet.

17. Model Configuration  5 year climate simulations will done on 1.5 x 1.5 deg grid  For testing 3x3 deg grid is used  High resolution (0.5 deg) model simulations over the Arctic (with a wide margin)  Initial conditions for current climate (i.e. year 2006) from Canadian Meteorological Centre objective analysis  Initial conditions (meteorology and chemistry) for future climate 2050 the GEM-AC model is run in climate mode

18. Major emissions – Arctic view Aviation NOx at 11kmSurface NOx (ECLIPSE)

19. GEM-AC model scenarios  Analysis run (current climate)  2006 base run  Using CMC objective analysis  Using MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications  Climate runs (RCP 4.5 and 8.5)  2050 Baseline  2050 Scenario 1

20. GEM-AC model results  For 2006 base run  NOx increases by 40% in the Arctic UTLS  Ozone increases by typically 2% in response to NOx in the Arctic UTLS  Comparison with observations is not sufficient  There is an urgent need for more observations in the Artic

21. Olsen, S. C., et al. (2013), Comparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6004–6009, doi:10.1002/2013GL057660. Normalized tropospheric ozone burden changes due to aviation emissions for the AEDT 2006 emissions and AEDT 2050 Base and Scenario 1 emissions Units are Tg-O3 per Tg- N emitted by aviation. GEM-AC preliminary results are within the envelope of other models Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is a two- dimensional (2-D) Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Global impacts from aviation

22. Regional impacts from aviation  Regional forcings as large as 500 mWm -2 (US) 1000 mWm -2 (Europe) in flight corridors, but this forcing will probably increase in the next decades. As well as new ‘hubs’ will emerge. At these levels, a significant climate response may be projected  Climate effects (e.g., mean or regional temperature) small. Possible shifts in weather patterns and local vertical stability) could be visible in global models  Changes to the Arctic environment due to prospecting, exploration, smelting and refining, and surface transportation (land and sea)  Possible important changes in the Arctic associated with surface deposition of soot on ice and cloud feedbacks. Flight rerouting has economic and climatic benefits

23. Outline  Objectives  Modelling approach  Model applications  Model validation  Aviation emission and scenarios  Arctic observations

24. Arctic observations  In-situ and satellite observations are queried to:  Constrained models  Explain differences between model results  Develop new science  Validate new parameterizations

25. Polar Communication & Weather mission 2 satellites, 12 hour orbits, Meteorological Imager, operational, quasi- geostationary around apogee +/- 4 hours Focus on Arctic

26. PCW Mission  Provide Arctic data  To improve meteorological data  T, P, H2O, ice clouds  To improve understanding of impact of northern nations on air quality  Measuring gaseous species data  Aerosols  To improve estimates of GHG gases sources

27. Viewing geometry from Molniya orbit locations. The 3 views are for an apogee at 90 o W longitude. Images have been scaled to show approximate angular size difference due to altitude change over the 8 h period they span. Note that rotation of the Earth almost exactly compensates for satellite motion in longitude. Apogee – 4 hoursApogeeApogee + 4 hours Air quality – summer Hi-Pressure Boreal Forest burning/Volcanoes East coast Low Pressure Bomb

28. Viewing geometry from Molniya orbit locations. The 3 views would be for the alternate apogees which would occur at 90 o E. Images have been scaled to show approximate angular size difference due to altitude change over the 8 h period they span. Note that rotation of the Earth almost exactly compensates for satellite motion in longitude. Apogee – 4 hoursApogeeApogee + 4 hours Monsoon, meteorology + AQ Siberian Fires Dust Storms over China -> Canada

29. Acknowledgements  At present the project is funded by Transport Canada  All GEM-AQ/AC work was funded by the  All GEM-AQ/AC work was funded by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences  MP & JS are funded by the National Science Centre, Poland

30. Sunrise in Eureka, Nunavut, Canada PEARL – Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory Thank You Photo by T. Kerzenmacher