1. COMPSCI 230 Discrete Mathematics for Computer Science

2. Probability Refresher What’s a Random Variable? A Random Variable is a real-valued function on a sample space S E[X+Y] =E[X] + E[Y]

3. Conditional Expectation What does this mean: E[X | A]? E[ X ] = E[ X | A ] Pr[ A ] + E[ X | A ] Pr[ A ] Pr[ A ] = Pr[ A | B ] Pr[ B ] + Pr[ A | B ] Pr[ B ] Is this true: Yes! Similarly: E[X | A] = ∑ k Pr[X = k | A]

4. Random Walks

5. How to walk home drunk

6. No new ideas Solve HW problem Eat Wait Work 0.3 0.4 0.99 0.01 probability Hungry Abstraction of Student Life

7. Like finite automata, but instead of a determinisic or non-deterministic action, we have a probabilistic action Example questions: “What is the probability of reaching goal on string Work,Eat,Work?” No new ideas Solve HW problem Eat Wait Work 0.3 0.4 0.99 0.01 Hungry

8. - Simpler: Random Walks on Graphs At any node, go to one of the neighbors of the node with equal probability

9. - Simpler: Random Walks on Graphs At any node, go to one of the neighbors of the node with equal probability

10. - Simpler: Random Walks on Graphs At any node, go to one of the neighbors of the node with equal probability

11. - Simpler: Random Walks on Graphs At any node, go to one of the neighbors of the node with equal probability

12. - Simpler: Random Walks on Graphs At any node, go to one of the neighbors of the node with equal probability

13. 0n k Random Walk on a Line You go into a casino with $k, and at each time step, you bet $1 on a fair game You leave when you are broke or have $n Question 1: what is your expected amount of money at time t? Let X t be a R.V. for the amount of $$$ at time t

14. 0n k Random Walk on a Line You go into a casino with $k, and at each time step, you bet $1 on a fair game You leave when you are broke or have $n X t = k +  1 +  2 +... +  t, (  i is RV for change in your money at time i) So, E[X t ] = k E[  i ] = 0

15. 0n k Random Walk on a Line You go into a casino with $k, and at each time step, you bet $1 on a fair game You leave when you are broke or have $n Question 2: what is the probability that you leave with $n?

16. Random Walk on a Line Question 2: what is the probability that you leave with $n? E[X t ] = k E[X t ] = E[X t | X t = 0] × Pr(X t = 0) + E[X t | X t = n] × Pr(X t = n) + E[ X t | X t is neither] × Pr(X t is neither) Allow play to infinity, but  i = 0 after reaching 0 or n. As t  ∞, Pr(neither)  0, and something t < n Hence Pr(X t = n)  E[X t ]/n = k/n = n × Pr(X t = n) + (something t ) × Pr(neither)

17. 0n k Another Way To Look At It You go into a casino with $k, and at each time step, you bet $1 on a fair game You leave when you are broke or have $n Question 2: what is the probability that you leave with $n? = probability that I hit green before I hit red

18. - What is chance I reach green before red? Random Walks and Electrical Networks Same as voltage if edges are identical resistors and we put 1-volt battery between green and red

19. - Random Walks and Electrical Networks Same as equations for voltage if edges all have same resistance! p x = Pr(reach green first starting from x) p green = 1, p red = 0 And for the rest p x = Average y  Nbr(x) (p y )

20. 0n k Another Way To Look At It You go into a casino with $k, and at each time step, you bet $1 on a fair game You leave when you are broke or have $n Question 2: what is the probability that you leave with $n? voltage(k) = k/n = Pr[ hitting n before 0 starting at k] !!!

21. Getting Back Home - Lost in a city, you want to get back to your hotel How should you do this? Requires a good memory and a piece of chalk Depth First Search!

22. Getting Back Home - How about walking randomly?

23. Will this work? When will I get home? Is Pr[ reach home ] = 1? What is E[ time to reach home ]?

24. Pr[ will reach home ] = 1

25. We Will Eventually Get Home Look at the first n steps There is a non-zero chance p 1 that we get home Also, p 1 ≥ (1/n) n Suppose we fail Then, wherever we are, there is a chance p 2 ≥ (1/n) n that we hit home in the next n steps from there Probability of failing to reach home by time kn = (1 – p 1 )(1 – p 2 ) … (1 – p k )  0 as k  ∞

26. E[ time to reach home ] is at most this Furthermore (no proof provided): If the graph has n nodes and m edges, then E[ time to visit all nodes ] ≤ 2m × (n-1)

27. Cover Times Cover time (from u) C u = E [ time to visit all vertices | start at u ] Cover time of the graph (worst case expected time to see all vertices) C(G) = max u { C u }

28. Cover Time Theorem If the graph G has n nodes and m edges, then the cover time of G is C(G) ≤ 2m (n – 1) Any graph on n vertices has < n 2 /2 edges Hence C(G) < n 3 for all graphs G

29. Actually, we get home pretty fast… Chance that we don’t hit home by (2k)2m(n-1) steps is (½) k

30. A Simple Calculation If the average income of people is $100 then more than 50% of the people can be earning more than $200 each False! else the average would be higher!!! True or False:

31. Andrei A. Markov Markov’s Inequality If X is a non-negative r.v. with mean E[X], then Pr[ X > 2 E[X] ] < ½ Pr[ X > k E[X] ] < 1/k

32. (since X is non-neg) Markov’s Inequality Non-neg random variable X has expectation A = E[X] A = E[X] = E[X | X > 2A ] Pr[X > 2A] + E[X | X ≤ 2A ] Pr[X ≤ 2A] ≥ E[X | X > 2A ] Pr[X > 2A] Also, E[X | X > 2A] > 2A  A > 2A × Pr[X > 2A] Pr[ X > k × expectation ] < 1/k  ½ > Pr[X > 2A]

33. Actually, we get home pretty fast… Chance that we don’t hit home by (2k)2m(n-1) steps is (½) k

34. An Averaging Argument Suppose I start at u E[ time to hit all vertices | start at u ] ≤ C(G) Hence, by Markov’s Inequality: Pr[ time to hit all vertices > 2C(G) | start at u ] ≤ ½

35. So Let’s Walk Some More! Pr [ time to hit all vertices > 2C(G) | start at u ] ≤ ½ Suppose at time 2C(G), I’m at some node with more nodes still to visit Pr [ haven’t hit all vertices in 2C(G) more time | start at v ] ≤ ½ Chance that you failed both times ≤ ¼ = (½) 2 Hence, Pr[ havent hit everyone in time k × 2C(G) ] ≤ (½) k

36. Hence, if we know that Expected Cover Time C(G) < 2m(n-1) then Pr[ home by time 4k m(n-1) ] ≥ 1 – (½) k

37. Random walks on infinite graphs

38. ‘To steal a joke from Kakutani (U.C.L.A. colloquium talk): “A drunk man will eventually find his way home but a drunk bird may get lost forever.”’ Shizuo Kakutani R. Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, Fourth edition, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2010, p. 191.

39. 0i Random Walk On a Line Flip an unbiased coin and go left/right Let X t be the position at time t Pr[ X t = i ]= Pr[ #heads – #tails = i] = Pr[ #heads – (t - #heads) = i] t (t+i)/2 /2 t =

40. Sterling’s approx Random Walk On a Line 0i Pr[ X 2t = 0 ] = ≤ Θ (1/√t) 2t t /2 2t Y 2t = indicator for (X 2t = 0)  E[ Y 2t ] = Θ (1/√t) Z 2n = number of visits to origin in 2n steps E[ Z 2n ] = E[  t = 1…n Y 2t ] ≤ Θ (1/√1 + 1/√2 +…+ 1/√n)= Θ (√n)

41. In n steps, you expect to return to the origin Θ (√n) times!

42. How About a 2-d Grid? Let us simplify our 2-d random walk: move in both the x-direction and y-direction…

43. How About a 2-d Grid? Let us simplify our 2-d random walk: move in both the x-direction and y-direction…

44. How About a 2-d Grid? Let us simplify our 2-d random walk: move in both the x-direction and y-direction…

45. How About a 2-d Grid? Let us simplify our 2-d random walk: move in both the x-direction and y-direction…

46. How About a 2-d Grid? Let us simplify our 2-d random walk: move in both the x-direction and y-direction…

47. In The 2-d Walk Returning to the origin in the grid  both “line” random walks return to their origins Pr[ visit origin at time t ] = Θ (1/√t) × Θ (1/√t) = Θ (1/t) E[ # of visits to origin by time n ] = Θ (1/1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/n ) = Θ (log n)

48. But In 3D Pr[ visit origin at time t ] = Θ (1/√t) 3 = Θ (1/t 3/2 ) lim n  ∞ E[ # of visits by time n ] < K (constant) Hence Pr[ never return to origin ] > 1/(K+1) E[visits in total ] = Pr[ return to origin ]*(1+ E[visits in total ]) + 0*Pr[ never return to origin ]

49. A Tale of Two Brothers Carl and Hal (cburch@cs.cmu.edu, hburch@cs.cmu.edu). As competitive as they are similar. They decided to play a fair game once an hour! Each brother wins any event with probability 1/2, independent of any other events. Amazingly, Hal was ahead for the last 50 years of his life! Should we have expected this?

50. A Random Walk Let x k denote the difference in victories after k events. We can view x 0, x 1, x 2, …, x n as a “random walk” that depends on the outcomes of the individual events.

51. Theorem: The number of sequences in which x k is never negative is equal to the number that start and end at 0, for even n.

52. Proof: Put the two sets in one-to-one and onto correspondence.

53. Lemma: Suppose that Y is an integer random variable in [0,m] such that Then Proof:

54. Lemma: For odd n,the number of sequences that last touch 0 at position i is equal to the number that last touch 0 at position n-i-1. Proof: Put these sets in one-to-one and onto correspondence using previous theorem to map A to A’ and B to B’.

55. Theorem: Let Y be the length of the longest suffix that does not touch 0. For odd n, Proof: Y is a random variable in the range [0,n-1]. By previous lemma,

56. A seemingly contradictory observation: The expected length of the final suffix that does not touch 0 is (n-1)/2, but the expected number of times the sequence touches 0 in the last n/2 steps is

57. Berthold’s Triangle The number of sequences with k 1’s and n-k 0’s in which the number of 1’s is greater than or equal to the number of 0’s in every prefix. Examples: 111 110 101

58. 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 5 4 1 0 0 0 5 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 14 14 6 1 Notice that the n’th row sums to

59. Theorem: Proof: By induction on n. Base cases: Inductive step:

60. Another strange fact… Let Z be the number of steps before the sequence returns to 0. Let Z’ be the number of steps before the sequence drops below 0. This looks like trouble! E[Z’] isn’t finite!

61. Here’s What You Need to Know… Random Walk in a Line Cover Time of a Graph Markov’s Inequality