1. Multi Hazard, Impact Based forecasting and warning services
© Crown copyright Met Office

2. Case Study – India, June 2013 Kedarnarth Temple
-heavy rain and melting snow over 4 days aggravated floods
-350mm in 24hrs
-sudden rapid melting of snow and ice on Kedarnarth mountain caused Charbari lake to flood upstream
-killed more than 1000, left 70,000 stranded for days
-Kedarnarth temple survived – major Hindu pilgrimage site

3. Kedarnarth before and after flood
Settlements in east and west valleys (1&2) disappeared post event. Also settlement around the temple devastated.

4. What worked well
Good Weather forecasts of heavy rainfall three days ahead of event
Weather warnings issued by Indian Met Department
Media coverage of threat
Satellite remote sensing information available

5. What didn’t?
Warning information was not fully understood by Government of Uttarakhand Disaster Manager – Unable to interpret “heavy rainfall for entire state” into effective impacts
Local preparedness for this magnitude of hazard inadequate
Late response resulting in additional hazards to responders during rescue operations
Poor communication between central government, IMD and State Disaster Manager

6. What didn’t? Weather models and other hazard models not coupled
Lack of scientific and technical capacity to translate hazard information into impacts – therefore, impacts underestimated
Inadequate communication channels, which failed during the event
Lack of appreciation and utilization of available hazard maps at local level
Inadequate observations to forecast events on scale required by Gov. of Uttarakhand

7. Typhoon Haiyan, November 2013

8. WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions
Going the extra mile – can science deliver??
“I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it be taken by a storm surge”
Stakeholder meeting, Manila 2014
-irrational response to warnings – man used his fridge to store fish for his business, vital to his livelihood
-need to warn in a way which is meaningful to the people so that they know how to react
© Crown copyright Met Office

9. Typhoon -> Hazards
-most warnings are based on sources but there is no info on impacts
-typhoon means wind and rain to most people – what about storm surge and flash flooding?

10. Typhoon -> Primary Lightning

11. Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge

12. Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge

13. Typhoon -> Secondary Flood inundation

14. Typhoon -> Tertiary Health and increased vulnerability
-vulnerability plays a huge part-here the ‘no’ has been removed as this flat area by the coast was seen as the best place to rebuild after typhoon damage.

15. Typhoon Hagupit, December 2014
-a year after Haiyan another typhoon of similar magnitude hit the Phillippines...
© Crown copyright Met Office

16. Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)
The 4.4 km Typhoon Hagupit
4.4 domain
Global (deterministic)
4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)

17. Typhoon Hagupit: Ensembles

18. TWO scenarios
Stalling northerly – landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides. Probability 70%
Fast westerly – landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards: wind and storm surge. Probability 30%.

19. Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons
Weather and
climate extremes
Weather analyses
& forecast data
Hurricane track, size, & intensity
Storm surge, flooding, inundated areas
Weather
Translation to
hazards
Extraction of relevant information
to predict hazards
Affected population & infrastructure, disruption of services, damages due to wind & water, etc.
Impact
Estimation
Placing into situational context
Implementation of evacuation & recovery plans
Reducing risk &
response
scenarios
Mitigation strategies
-forecast the weather as usual and translate this to hazards. Often this is where it stops. Warnings based on individual hazards.
-next step is to estimate impacts and the level of these impacts. Warn for these impacts (risk=impact x likelihood).
-enables mitigation strategies to be implemented as the emergency services/public know how it effects them and how to respond.

20. Some progress, still a limiting factor Considerable progress
Holistic approach to impact and risk
Major Uncertainty
Some progress, still a limiting factor
Considerable progress
GEO-PHYSICAL
HAZARD
EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
Socio-Economic
IMPACT
QUANTIFYING
&
REDUCING RISK
WEATHER & CLIMATE EXTREMES
Dotted lines are used.
-geophysical hazard (flooding, lightning strikes, landslides etc)
-modeling of exposure and vulnerability is still a fairly new area-growing]-estimate impacts with partner organisations
-risks difficult to quantify but can estimate using risk=impact x likelihood. Then plan for mitigation. Develop SOPs.

21. Advice on impacts

22. Severe Weather Warnings Colour Codes
NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
Keep up to date with latest forecast
BE AWARE
Remain alert and keep up to date with latest forecast
BE PREPARED
Remain vigilant, keep up to date with latest forecast and take precautions where possible
TAKE ACTION
Remain extra vigilant, keep up to date with latest forecast. Follow orders and any advice given by authorities and be prepared for extraordinary measures

23. Flood impact matrix

24. Public Advice Key Public advice key Very low Low Medium High
No action required
Keep an eye on the weather and flood forecasts
Flooding possible – BE AWARE
Remain alert and ensure you access the latest weather forecast for up to date information
Be aware of conditions and drive accordingly
Check weather and flood warnings
Flooding is expected
BE PREPARED
Remain vigilant
Consider re-scheduling your journey. Don’t drive or walk through flood water
Think about preparing for flooding and take precautions where possible
Check flood warnings
Significant risk to life
TAKE ACTION
Remain extra vigilant and ensure you access the latest weather and flood forecasts
Avoid all non-essential travel to postpone journeys if at all possible
Follow advice given by authorities under all circumstances, and be prepared for extraordinary measures

25. Flood Guidance Statement

26. Science to service: Importance of partnerships
-the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts.
-partners vital to successful planning of impact matrix-without which the impact based forecasting won’t be successful.
-partners can then champion the Met Service to the government saying how good the forecasts are and how vital they are to disaster mitigation – improved the Met Services relationship with and position withing government.
© Crown copyright Met Office

27. Typhoon Hagupit is example of impact based forecasting working to protect lives and livelihoods. So the answer to the question is forecast impacts not weather.

28. ‘If you have a perfect system it will drive behaviours which will mitigate all impacts’

29. Lake Victoria Mobile Weather Alerts – Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
Met Office is providing model data and forecasting support to the Ugandan Department of Meteorology, who issue alerts via SMS to mobile phones of fishermen
The mobile alerts are sent out daily and are colour coded to indicate risk
The pilot study started in July 2011, there are currently over 1,000 subscribers
Tom Butcher, Met Office External Relations Manager talking to fishermen and Lake Victoria rescue service