2. Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality
T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets)
... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see”
(“willful blindness”)
John Casti, X-Events, 2012

3. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise:
Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge
The Syndrome: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
The Prognosis: Expected Future Changes - A unparalleled Challenge for Humanity
The Diagnosis: The Anthropocene and Global Change
The Therapy: Lifestyle Change
Hans-Peter Plag
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA

4. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
IPCC, 2013
Syndrome

5. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome

6. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Temperature, , 5 Year averages of anomly compared to
Syndrome

7. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations

8. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome

9. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome

10. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Greenland
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
Measurement Principle
Syndrome

11. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome

12. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Marcott et al., 2013
Syndrome

13. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
“Normal” variability:
- global temperature: 0.2 C/century (-0.5 to 0.5)
- global sea level: m/century (-6.0 to 6.0) o
20th century:
- global temperature: C
- global sea level: m o
Syndrome

14. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate change is happening:
- now, for certain
- everywhere, globally
- rapidly
- expected to get worse
Sea level change is happening:
- now, certain
- everywhere, globally
- rapidly
- expected to get worse
Syndrome

15. Expected Future Changes
Prognosis

16. Expected Future Changes
Prognosis

17. Expected Future Changes}
Expected Future Changes 4 3
IPCC Assessment:
Very Likely 2 o
1 C
Marcott et al., 2013

18. Expected Future Changes
Prognosis

19. Expected Future Changes
Prognosis

20. Expected Future Changes
Climate Change and Sea Level Change
Expected Future Changes
}IPCCt
Prognosis

21. Expected Future Changes
Example Hampton Roads
Today’s rate:
5 mm per year
(about 1.5 feet in 100 years)
Soon could get as high as:
20 mm per year
(about 6 feet in 100 years)
Modified from Church et al. (2010)
Prognosis

22. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
org:
19 cities in the world with
20 million people in the
21st century
“..., almost all of the cities to be studied in are cities that border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea levels
Prognosis

23. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Lovelock (and many others):
- Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state
(5 C warmer) already in 2050
China
Australia
USA
Germany
Lovelock:
- Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion
- Recommendation: look for the lifeboats
Prognosis

24. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg?
Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.”
There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them -
I hope, we can do better.
Prognosis

25. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
11.1%
Genghis Khan
Prognosis

26. We are Reengineering the Planet ...
The Anthropocene and Global Change
Population
GDP
CO2
CH4
1750
2000
Floods
Temperature
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Bill McKibben:
Earth becomes Eaarth ...
Cars
Deforestation
Extinction
Diagnosis

27. The Anthropocene and Global Change
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Diagnosis

28. We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Marcott et al., 2013

29. The Anthropocene and Global Change
“Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?”
James Syvitski, 2012.
The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch?
- a slowly hitting asteroid
- a planetary accident
- an extinction-class event
Plag, 2013
We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat ...
Diagnosis

30. The Anthropocene and Global Change
Earth is on the Edge ?
“Safe operating space for humanity”
Rockstroem et al., 2009
Humanity as a global species is on the edge
We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster ...
(On The RunningInFog)
Diagnosis

31. The Anthropocene and Global Change
The planet is on a path unknown to humanity ...
Small Steps no longer make much sense ...
We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world ...
Diagnosis

32. Responding to the Challenge
What Could be this Fundamental Change?
Millennium Development Goals ( ): Mostly not reached
Sustainable Development Goals ( ): Proposed, look very good ...
SDGs:
1 Thriving lives and livelihoods
2 Sustainable food security
3 Secure sustainable water
4 Universal clean energy
5 Healthy and productive ecosystems
6 Governance for sustainable societies
Griggs et al., 2013
Therapy

33. Responding to the Challenge
Sustainable Development:
Brundtland et al., 1987: “Development that meets the needs of the presence without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs”
Griggs et al., 2013: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”
Griggs et al., 2013
Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system
Plag et al., 2013
Therapy

34. What Would this Fundamental Change be?
Sustainable Development:
“Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s
life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”
2,500 years ago: Hippocrates introduce an oath that focused medical activities on the benefit of the patients.
We propose an “economic oath” that focusses economy on the benefit of humanity:
“Participating in economic activities, I will strive to satisfy the needs of the people while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.”
Plag et al., 2013

35. Responding to the Challenge
Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system
An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients.
Economy for humanity:
“An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system,
on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.”
Plag et al., 2013
Therapy

36. “No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it
Albert Einstein
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it”
Upton Sinclair