1. 2010 FAA Worldwide Airport Technology Transfer Conference Risk Assessment of RSA Alternatives at San Francisco International Airport Manuel Ayres Regis Carvalho Michael Lawrence Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Edith Arambula

2. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Outline Objective RSA Alternatives ACRP Methodology Analysis with EMAS SFO Scenarios Results Conclusions

3. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Objective Present Case-Study for probability assessment of aircraft overruns and undershoots in support of cost- benefit studies to select infrastructure alternatives for existing SFO RSAs, including the use of Engineered Materials Arrestor Systems (EMAS).

4. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Alternatives to Improve RSAs Extend existing RSA Modify or relocate the runway Implemente declared distances Use arresting systems (e.g. EMAS)

5. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility ACRP Methodology ACRP Report 3 – Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas Methodology for quantitative assessment of Runway Safety Areas http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_rpt_003.pdf

6. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Model Structure Three-Part Risk Model Event probability Location probability Accident consequences Risk Operating conditions Operating conditions, terrain Location probability, obstacle location, size and type, aircraft type  High  Medium  Low  High  Medium  Low High Medium Low

7. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility ACRP Report 3 Approach to quantitatively estimate the probability that an aircraft will exit the runway and stop beyond a given distance from the runway end x y RSA Stop Location Probability Distribution y

8. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Frequency Models Probability = N i/a / N n (under certain operation conditions) P{Event} is the probability (0-100%) of an accident type occur given certain operational conditions. X i = f(ceiling, visibility, crosswind, gusts, rain, type of aircraft, etc.)

9. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility A Simple Example 0 1 Risk Factor (e.g. x-wind) Probability of Event (e.g. LDOR) XW 1 XW 2 Possible cut-off points P1P1 P2P2

10. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Location Models Distance x from runway end Probability location Exceeds x x1x1 P{Loc > x 1 } X rwy end

11. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Location Model - Example

12. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Analysis with EMAS – Basic Concept

13. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Analysis with EMAS

14. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Aircraft Movements Arrival End/RSA LDORLDUSTOORTotal # of Movements Challenging the RSA 19R173,86475,72879,609 19L10117,660138,738156,499 01R17,66010129418,055 01L3,864171,3555,236 28R433189,57012,160202,163 28L251131,29411,809143,354 10R131,29425151,806183,351 10L189,57043349,322239,325 Total343,190 341,2121,027,592

15. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Existing Conditions – Rwys 01/19

16. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility SFO RSA Alternatives Refinement A Bay fill to install standard EMAS on 19s Shift 1R/19L north Refinement B Create standard RSAs for 28s

17. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Refinement A

18. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Average Probability for all Movements (Existing)1.41E-07 Total Airport Probability if Complying w/ Standard7.48E-08 Refinement A RSA01R01L19R19L Total Airport Probability1.08E-07 RSA Contribution to Airport Probability Decrease-0.5%0.1%9.3%14.7% % Protection Relative to FAA Standard23.6% Refinement B RSA10R10L28R28L Total Airport Probability1.12E-07 RSA Contribution to Airport Probability Decrease0.0% 13.8%6.4% Total % Decrease (all RSAs combined)66.6% Level of Protection for Refinement A + Refinement B94% Summary of Results  Summary of Results

19. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Impact of Runway Shift on Total Airport Probability

20. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Impact of Rwy 01R/19L Shift

21. a Expanding the Realm of Possibility Thank You!