1. JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, JTWC 63 rd INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 2-5 MARCH 2009 ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA Typhoon Sinlaku

2. MISSION Provide tropical cyclone analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

3. JTWC AOR CPHC New Delhi Reunion Tokyo Australia Fiji NHC 33% 8% 11% 13% 7% 17%

4. 4 TC ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2004: 32 2004: 32 2005: 25 2005: 25 2006: 26 2006: 26 2007: 27 2007: 27 2008: 27 2008: 27 25 Yr avg: 31 S Indian Ocean & Australia Region 2004: 25 2005: 20 2006: 19 2007: 16 2008: 21 25 Yr avg: 23 South Pacific 2004: 2 2005: 6 2006: 4 2007: 8 2008: 8 25 Yr avg: 6 C Pacific C Pacific 2004: 2 2004: 2 2005: 1 2005: 1 2006: 4 2006: 4 2007: 2 2007: 2 2008: 1 2008: 1 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2004: 16 2004: 16 2005: 16 2005: 16 2006: 21 2006: 21 2007: 15 2007: 15 2008: 18 2008: 18 25 Yr avg: 19 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2004: 5 2004: 5 2005: 7 2005: 7 2006: 5 2006: 5 2007: 6 2007: 6 2008: 7 2008: 7 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

5. SATELLITE RECON FIXES BY AGENCY 113 343 86 94 41 93 42 9199 1951 744 (Total: 12,581)

6. SATELLITE RECON FIXES BY JTWC (Total: 9,199)

7. SATELLITE RECON MICROWAVE FIXES BY JTWC Total Microwave Fixes: 4,639 (>50% of total) 644 1716 869 781 284 453 364

8. 2008 NORTH IO TRACKS

9. 2008 S-HEMI TRACKS

10. 2008 WESTPAC TRACKS 14 Tropical Storms 11 Typhoons 2 Super Typhoons

11. 2008 JTWC TRACK ERRORS ALL BASINS

12. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 24-72 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2004 69 121 162 2005 63 104 169 2006 64 106 151 2007 61 100 147 2008 66120 198 Goal 50 100 150

13. 2008 WPAC ERRORS STORM BY STORM

14. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2004 206 275 2005 212 263 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301447 Goal 200 250

15. 2008 WPAC ERRORS STORM BY STORM

16. 2007 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

17. 2008 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

18. MODEL ERRORS Typhoon FengShen (7W)

19. MODEL ERRORS

20. Typhoon FengShen (7W) MODEL ERRORS 10% of the JTWC 120 hour track error due to 07W

21. 2007- 2008 ERROR DELTA (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

22. Mean 1000mb WINDS Jun-Nov 1950-2008 Well Defined Monsoon Trough

23. 2008 1000mb WINDS Jun-Nov08 Lack of Westerlies N-S Monsoon Trough

24. JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr 2004 11 17 21 23 26 2005 12 18 24 25 25 2006 13 17 20 22 24 2007 13 18 20 24 26 2008 12 19 21 22 28

25. ITEMS OF INTEREST USAF Civilianization (Update) MARK IVB DRO Continuation/Expansion Fix Bulletin Changes (Unified DoD/NOAA format, MI fixes included) T-PARC / TCS-08 – Data used in forecasts (Sinlaku) JMA GSM out to 132 Hrs / Forecasts to 120 Hrs ECMWF Fields METSAT Conference / Tropical Cyclone Conference / JTWC 50 th Anniversary –METSAT: 27-28 Apr –JTWC 50 th Anniversary: 29 Apr 1000 HST –TCC: 29 Apr – 1 May

26. Contact Info Director: robert.falvey@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 474-5301 DSN: (315) 474-5301 JT Ops Officer (JTOPS): michael.vancas@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 471-4597 DSN: (315) 471-4597

27. QUESTIONS