1. Fisheries reconciliation: Managing aquatic habitats in the face of climate change Joshua Israel Department of Animal Sciences Center for Watershed Sciences UC Davis http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/media/planning/CCP_Petaluma.jpg

2. Lessons for the Future (Lackey, in press): 1.The marketplace is fundamental 2.Competition for scarce resources is unyielding 3.Humans exert a pervasive influence 4. Individuals select from among desirable alternatives 5. Policy domestication is ubiquitous 6. Delusional reality is tempting and widespread www.doi.gov

3. Water temp increases Increased flooding & sediment Decreased natural summer flows Increased salinity Possible alteration of ocean currents and productivity NMFS DWR Climate change effects on fish habitat

4. Climate change and restoration Reconciling climate change Adapt restoration to take advantage of Compatibility, Agreement, and Resignation Often wrongly compared to extended drought…. tax evasion …more like an invasive species bankruptcy usgs

5. Compatability: Baylands Ecosystem Goals Project (1999) Tidal marsh habitat Increased water circulation and tidal prism Shallow Channel habitat Eelgrass beds restoration North BaySouth Bay

6. Different Compatability: Coastal salmonids Managed flows Increased riparian habitats Increased estuarine habitats Warm Springs Dam http://www.lib.noaa.gov/japan/aquaculture/events/32trip.htm Coho and steelhead juvenile oversummer Chinook juvenilesoutmigrate Samantha Dorger, www.baynature.com

7. Agreement: Bay Fish Community SF estuary in center of California current upwelling Cold temperate fish Starry flounder English Sole Rockfish CA herring Dungeness crab salmon Warm subtropic fish California halibut Pacific sardine White seabass CA grunion Pacific blue crab NMFS ak.aoos.org/op/data.php?region=YAK&name=pdo

8. Agreement: Bay Fish Community South Bay increasingly used by warmer water species: CA halibut, CA grunion. Poorer recruitment of cold temperate species: Brown rockfish, Dungeness crab, salmon Migration of cold sp. adults north, temperature related mortalities, shifts in critical productivity outside GG McFarlane et al. (2008)Cal Neva AFS 2008

9. Resignation: Delta smelt Rarely occur in waters above 20°C Center of abundance in channel of Sacramento River and upper portion of Delta Climate change will leave little or no suitable habitat in summer for Delta smelt Bennett, SFEWS 2005

10. A future full of opportunities and lessons 1.Resignation and extinction should not be accepted. 2.Preserving and developing fish habitat also provides flood protection, water quality protection, groundwater recharge and fisheries. 3.Identify compatible habitat restoration solutions for current targets 4.Agree that SF Bay’s fish community may be more diverse than previously thought, and develop projects for additional species