1. Food Crises - II Case Studies: esp. Tunisia

2. Readings  "Riots in Tunisia"  "Tunisia: Bourguiba & the Bread Riots"  "Tunisia: Bouguiba lets them eat Bread"  "Tunisia: From Universal Food Subsidies to a Self-Targeted Program"  D. Seddon, "Riot & Rebellion:Political Responses to Economic Crisis in North Africa"

3. Events  January 1984: Govt cuts food subsidies  dramatic rise in prices of basic food stuffs, e.g., bread prices rise 100%  Massive protest, beginning in poorest Southern regions, sweeps North into capital and coastal cities  Govt responds with military repression, revolt spread  Govt rescinds price increases, restores subidies

4. Government's Spin  Blamed the upheaval on radical agitators:  maybe Libyan-backed,  maybe Moslem fundamentalists  This explanation was repeated in foreign press to some degree, however....

5. Analysis #1: Press, later Govt  The press fairly quickly pointed out, and eventually the government had to admit, that the uprising was a "bread riot"  Some tried to blame the govt and let the IMF/World Bank off the hook, but the subsidies cuts were in fact elements of an austerity program imposed by those institutions as conditions of debt roll-over

6. Analysis #2: Press, Seddon  To some degree press reports recognized economic backdrop to uprising, i.e.,  decline in tourism  reduction in oil revenues due to Reagan recession  reduction in Arab foreign aid due to same cause  Seddon probes this as much as he can after debunking govt efforts to blame outsiders

7. Seddon - I  High unemployment in South of Tunisia,  partly due to govt neglect of agricultural development  Also due to drought and catastrophic date harvest  Wage increases for industrial workers in North increased income differentials  Inflation had undercut real wages even before price increases  Lower revenue from oil and phosphate exports

8. Seddon - II  Decline in foreign tourism income  Rising grain imports  Rising trade deficit more generally with  M, slower X  IMF/World Bank pressure to reduce govt deficit via cuts in expenditures &  consumption taxes (cigarettes & petrol)  Collaboration of middle class & trade union leadership with govt policies

9. Probing Deeper - I  Behind neglect of agriculture  we find development strategy based on cheap labor for manufacturing which requires rural-urban migration to keep wages low  Alongside drought  we find lack of offsetting govt efforts to subsidize income or agriculture for same reason  "Natural" phenomenon converted into social one  Rising Food imports?  result of struggle for more wages, stagnation in Ag.

10. Probing Deeper - II  Wage demands in cities partly a function of foreign wage possibilties  Tunisian workers migrate to France as well as Libya and send/bring back  money  new expectations  new experiences of struggle  Global depression which reduced oil and phosphate revenues was brought on by US policy in response to "wage-push inflation"  Question: to what degree were Tunisian workers part of cycle of struggle that produced this policy response?

11. Probing Deeper - III  Drop in tourist receipts  result of European recession?  result of perceptions of instability?  Slowdown in industrial growth  result in European recession?  result of wage increases that undercut profits?  Strike wave 1977-78? Results?

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