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Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date Likelihood of Occurrence (probability) Consequence of Occurrence.

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Presentation on theme: "Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date Likelihood of Occurrence (probability) Consequence of Occurrence."— Presentation transcript:

1 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date Likelihood of Occurrence (probability) Consequence of Occurrence (Impact) 5 4 3 2 1 12345 HighMediumLow (Criticality) P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass P F1 Evaluation Date: 06/25/12 P F2 CS F3 P F5 P F6 P F7 PS F9 FIELDS Instrument Risks Status IDTITLEPICritRetire At F3Foreign Funding Issues44 H CNES Phase C Commit. (~12/13) F9Magnetic Sensor Qualification34 M MAG Thm Test by I-CDR (~1/15) F12Magnetic Cleanliness43 M Mission I&T (~8/16) F13Third axis electric field measurement43 M Study Completion (~8/12) F7ElectroStatic Contamination33 M Mission I&T (~8/16) F5Survival Thermal Environment24 M SCM & MAG Env. Qual (~11/14) F10Antenna Qualification23 L Ant. Qual (~3/13) F6Magnetic Sensor Interference23 L ETU I&T (~8/14) F11SCM dependence on Solar Orbiter22 L SO FLT SCM Complete F1 S/C Conducted and Radiated Noise Contamination13 L Mission I&T (~8/16) F2Plasma Wake Effects13 L Mission CDR (~3/15) CS F10 CS F11 P F12 Mitigation Plans in Place for All FIELDS Risks P F13 S F14

2 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date Risk Notes: June 2012 1) F13 - Phase B Schedule Risk (chart 17): - impact & status need to be reassessed; pending ongoing review/discussions re. the recently received Phase B contractchart 17 2) F3 - Foreign Funding (commitment) (chart 7): - On 5/8 the FIELDS team learned that due to the heavy workload on the RPW/TNR-HFR team and the currently tight schedule fr the RPW/Solar Orbiter, LESIA cannot commit as initially planned for a full development and building of the FIELDS TNR/HFR.chart 7 - At that time, the likelihood for risk F3 was increased from a 1 to a 4 -Alternative to TNR/HFR presented on 6/12 and further information received on 7/2. Evaluation of options for how to proceed is ongoing. - UCB will implement budget/schedule for replacement option by 9/12, bringing risk F3 back to green -Will then open a new technical risk to track the development of the new TNR/HFR option 3) F8 – Magnetic Sensor/SCM Dynamic Range (chart 11): - Risk Retired. Decision made to sample the MAG faster to cover the gap in frequencychart 11

3 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date Backup

4 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date FIELDS Phase B Risks Mitigation FIELDS Risk Mitigation activities for Phase B include: Antenna Qualification: Nb materials testing, optical props aging (~Feb to Apr ‘12 TBR (was 3/12), MSFC or EMTL (was Odeillo, France) ) Antenna model thermal testing (~Oct ‘12 to Jan ‘13 (was 3/13), Odeillo, France) Additional contingency test, if needed (~Oct ‘13, Odeillo, France) SCM / MAG / FGM Trade: Determine the optimal technical (dynamic range) & resource (mass and thermal) solution (close by 4/12) See Trades Slide for additional information. MAG Performance Over Temperature: MAG Cold Operations Test (~1/13) MAG Thermal Cycling Test (end of Phase B) MAG/SCM Interference: MAG/SCM Interference test (similar to the MAG/FGM test performed in 7/11) (~5/12 TBR (was 4/13), Chambon, France) Blue = change since MDR

5 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass ID Risk Mitigation Plan F1-P: S/C Conducted and Radiated Noise Contamination Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade AEMI/EMC Plan Draft prior to I-PDR06/1313 3 BEMI/EMC Plan Final prior to I-CDR01/1513 3 CEMC verification at Mission I&T08/16Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F1-P: S/C Conducted and Radiated Noise Contamination Current Assessment LOW LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If S/C design does not include EMI shielding and EMC mitigations 13 3 Then FIELDS will not be able to measure small signals as required Last Updated08/10/11 Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6 F1-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 BC A

6 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F2-P: Plasma Wake Effects Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade AAccept risk at Mission CDR when design freezes with adequate boom length.03/15Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F2-P: Plasma Wake Effects Current Assessment LOW LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If S/C plasma wake effects are as large as predicted, 13 3 Then near-S/C electric field sensors will be compromised. Last Updated08/10/11 F2-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 A P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

7 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F3-CS: Foreign Funding Issues Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade AFund backup options for TNR and SCM09/11 4 4 16 B Decision to proceed with foreign sources for SCM Remove TNR/HFR from CNES and select alternate option for TNR/HFR 06/12 3 4 12 C CNES proposal for next phase (SCM) Implement replacement plan for TNR/HFR include budget/schedule & open new technical risk capturing the technical development of the new option 09/1214 4 DKDP-C11/1314 4 ECNES Phase C Commitment 12/13 (TBR) Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 20 15 10 5 Risk F3-CS: Foreign Funding Issues Current Assessment HIGH LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If foreign funding sources fail 4 4 16 Then we may lose the search coil sensors or electronics Last Updated 05/21/12 F3-CS: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 A P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6 B C D E

8 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F5-P: Survival Thermal Environment Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade APreliminary thermal analysis/test to confirm if the thermal design is adequate 06/12 24 8 BGSFC MAG Ops & Survival Thermal Test06/1214 4 CAPL test high-efficiency blankets on MAG Boom mock-up (prior to ETU Env. Test). 08/14 (TBR) 14 4 DSCM & MAG Environmental Qualification11/14Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F5-P: Survival Thermal Environment Current Assessment Medium LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the survival thermal environment for the SCM and MAG does not meet the sensors’ minimum temperature requirements, 24 16 Then additional heater power will be required to avoid instrument failure. Last Updated09/13/11 D F5-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 C AB P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

9 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F6-P: Magnetic Sensor Interference Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade AMAG Boom design accommodates >1m separation by I-PDR06/1313 3 BETU I&T complete08/14Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F6-P: Magnetic Sensor Interference Current Assessment LOW LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the MAG and SCM sensors are too close, 23 6 Then their interference will compromise the magnetic measurements. Last Updated08/10/11 A B F6-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

10 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F7-P: Electro Static Contamination Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade AESC plan draft complete, prior to I-PDR06/1323 6 BESC plan final, prior to I-CDR01/1513 3 CESC verified at Mission I&T8/16Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F7-P: Electro Static Contamination Current Assessment MEDIUM LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the S/C has areas that charge up, 33 9 Then their potential will compromise the electric field measurements. Last Updated08/10/11 F7-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 A B C P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

11 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F8-PSM: Magnetic Sensor / SCM Dynamic Range Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade A MAG/FGM Trade Closure SCM Dynamic range portion is retired, the SCM/MAG compatibility is still an issue 6/25/12: decision made to cover gap in dynamic range by sampling the MAG faster 6/12 Retired Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F8-PSM: Magnetic Sensor / SCM Dynamic Range Current Assessment Retired LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the combined MAG & SCM concept does not cover the required dynamic range and bandwidth, 33 9 Then there may be a loss of data in certain frequency bands. Last Updated06/25/2012 A F8-PSM: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

12 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F9-PS: Magnetic Sensor Qualification Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade APlan thermal testing of a representative MAG sensor (by I-PDR) 11/13 24 8 BMAG Thermal Test by FIELDS Instrument CDR 12/14 Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F9-PS: Magnetic Sensor Qualification Current Assessment MEDIUM LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the MAG sensor is not qualified for the number of operational thermal cycles, 34 12 Then the sensor may fail in orbit. Last Updated08/10/11 A B F9-FS: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

13 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F10-PS: Antenna Qualification Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade A Obtain Nb materials for testing - complete 01/1223 6 B Nb material testing, Glenn Research Ctr, Southern Research, MSFC, APL, Surface Optics 2/12 – 8/12 13 3 CAntenna ETU thermal testing; Antenna Qualification Complete03/13Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F10-PS: Antenna Qualification Current Assessment Low LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the antenna cannot be qualified to meet thermal requirements, 33 6 Then the antenna will need to be re-designed. Last Updated04/19/2012 A C F10-PS: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6 B

14 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F11-S: SCM Dependence on Solar Orbiter Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade ASolar Orbiter ETU completeTBD12 2 BRe-plan SCM ETU testing as neededTBD12 2 CRe-plan SCM FLT integration as neededTBD12 2 DSO Flight SCM CompleteTBDRetire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F11-S: SCM Dependence on Solar Orbiter Current Assessment LOW LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If Solar Orbiter is delayed, 22 4 Then the SCM for FIELDS delivery will be delayed. Last Updated08/10/11 A B C D F11-S: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

15 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F12-P: Magnetic Cleanliness Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade AMagnetics plan draft (prior to I-PDR)06/1333 9 BMagnetics plan final (prior to I-CDR)01/1523 6 CDesign freeze at M-CDR confirms long-enough MAG Boom03/1513 3 DMagnetics verified at Mission I&T08/16Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F12-P: Magnetic Cleanliness Current Assessment MEDIUM LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the S/C exhibits high residual magnetic fields (AC or DC), 43 12 Then the magnetic measurements will be contaminated. Last Updated08/10/11 A B C D F12-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

16 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date ID Risk Mitigation Plan F12-P: Magnetic Cleanliness Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade A Study the possibility of making a simple surface voltage measurement on the MAG boom as a baseline for the sunward electric field 08/2012 Retire Risk * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F13-P: Third Axis Electric Field Measurement Current Assessment MEDIUM LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If S/C electrostatic center is near the TPS and highly variable, 43 12 Then FIELDS will fail to measure the sunward electric fields. Last Updated01/04/2012 A F13-P: Risk Burn Down Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6

17 Solar Probe Plus A NASA Mission to Touch the Sun Solar Probe Plus FIELDS Instrument Suite Date * Grade = Likelihood x Consequence ** Assessment is the remaining risk assessed after successful event completion Risk Grade 25 20 15 10 5 Risk F14-S: Phase B Contract Current Assessment MEDIUM LikelihoodConsequence Risk Grade Risk Statement If the UCB Phase B contract or UCB Phase B subcontracts lapse (due to insufficient lead time to get subcontracts to teammates), 42 8 Then then the early Phase B deliverables and testing schedule will be delayed. Last Updated04/19/2012 A F14-S: Phase B Contract Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 201120122013201420152016 P = Performance C = Cost S = Schedule M = Mass Plan Actual LevelRisk Grade* High 15-25 Medium 6-12 Low 1-6 ID Risk Mitigation Plan F11-S: SCM Dependence on Solar Orbiter Event Date Assessment** Likeli- hood Conse- quence Risk Grade APhase B contracts (to UCB and teammates) in placeTBD41 4 BReplan of early Phase B deliverables & testing completeTBDRetire Risk B


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