1. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 1 Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center TCC 29-30 April 2009 Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… GFDN 2009 The GFDN Team Carey Dickerman, FNMOC lead Roger Stocker, FNMOC Isaac Ginnis, URI Morris Bender, GFDL

2. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 2 Old vs New GFDN: Comparison of Main Features GFDNGF3C Ocean CouplingnonePOM (3-D) Nests½°, 1/6°1/2°, 1/6°, 1/12° Grid domain75 X 75°, 11 X 11° Fixed moving 75 X 75°, 11X 11°, 5 X 5° Fixed moving moving Dissipative HeatingnoneAdded to Core Region MicrophysicsLarge-scale CondensationNCEP Ferrier Upgrade

3. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 3 ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE OCEANOCEAN Warm sea surface temperature Cool subsurface temperature Ocean response to hurricane forcing: 1. Vertical mixing/entrainment Wind stress → surface layer currents Current shear → turbulence Turbulent mixing → entrainment of cooler water Sea surface temperature decreases Subsurface temperature increases This is a 1-D (vertical) process from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

4. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 4 Cyclonic hurricane vortex ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE OCEANOCEAN Warm sea surface temperature Cool subsurface temperature Ocean response to hurricane forcing: 2. Upwelling Cyclonic wind stress → divergent surface currents Divergent currents → upwelling Upwelling → cooler water brought to surface This is a 3-D process from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

5. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 5 Hurricanes have historically translated in the Gulf of Mexico: < 5 m s -1 73% and < 2 m s -1 16% of the time in the western tropical North Atlantic at < 5 m s -1 62% and < 2 m s -1 12% of the time SST cooling within hurricane inner-core in 3D and 1D ocean models from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

6. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 6 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd, 0000 UTC, 2006 Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm HOUR 0 HOUR 120 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling HOUR 0

7. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 7 Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity ( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2 nd, 0000 UTC, 2006) 1 3-D OCEAN COUPLING 2 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN 3 1-D OCEAN COUPLING MAXIMUM WINDS CENTRAL PRESSURE 3-D Coupling

8. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 8 Northern Indian Ocean - io012008 North Atlantic - al022008 North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008 Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008 Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008 GFDN Forecast Performance: Intensity Forecast Validation against “Old”

9. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 9 Northern Indian Ocean - io012008 North Atlantic - al022008 North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008 Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008 Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008 GFDN Forecast Performance: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (ST5D) Validation

10. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 10 TRACK ERROR (NM) Northern Indian Ocean - io012008 North Atlantic - al022008 North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008 Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008 Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008 GFDN Forecast Performance: Tracks

11. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 11 IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES (2005-2007) AVERAGE TRACK SKILL AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL from Bender et al., “ Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

12. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 12 GFDN STATUS - TODAY Operational on A2 since Oct 2008. Atlantic: 3-D Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forecast with GDEM ocean climatology initialization. NOGAPS (NCODA low resolution) SST analysis. Pacific: 1-D POM with 3-D NCODA analysis initialization. NCODA high resolution SST analysis.

13. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 13 GFDN STATUS – June 2009 Adding Asymmetry Factor. DONE. Operational in January. Adding altimetry data assimilation for Atlantic to define Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. DONE Operational in April. With University of Rhode Island, adding POM-3D in the Pacific. Delivery in March. Operational in May.

14. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 14 OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS WITH 3-D COUPLING COMPARED TO 1-D 1-D GFDN 3-D GFDN 1-D GFDN from Bender et al., “ Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

15. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 15 REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH 3-D COUPLING OLD GFDN from Bender et al., “ Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

16. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 16 ISSUES Joint JTWC / FNOC review of SOPs (in progress) Need an independent review of GFDN upgrades by JTWC. Need to watch GFDL vs GFDN (GFS vs NOGAPS) NOAA has stopped funding for GFDL. FNMOC relies on GFDL/URI developers for maintenance.

17. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 17 2008 Northern Hemisphere Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) 01 August 2008 – 17 September 2008 15011686 Number of Forecasts 6850

18. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 18 GFDN DONE BACKUP SLIDES FOLLOW

19. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 19 Atmospheric Boundary Layer Momentum & KE Flux TurbulenceSea Spray BubblesMomentum & KE Flux Nonbreaking WavesBreaking Waves Wave induced stress  Reynolds stress  (Langmuir) Turbulence Air-Sea Interface Heat & Humidity Flux Airflow separation Intermittency Intermittency of Momentum & KE injection Stokes drift Ocean Boundary Layer Ocean Boundary Layer MORE PHYSICS TO COME TO COME from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

20. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 20 2008 Atlantic Non-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) 314 251 204 Number of Forecasts 160 131 from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009. Interpolated Model Guidance AVNI – Global Forecast System (GFS) run at NCEP GFDI – GFDL model run at NCEP HWFI – Hurricane WRF run at NCEP NGPI – Navy global model (NOGAPS) run at FNMOC GFNI – GFDL model run at FNMOC EGRI – UK Met Office global model EMXI – ECMWF global model TVCN – Consensus of above models (at least two) AEMI – NCEP GFS ensemble mean

21. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 21 2008 Eastern North Pacific Non-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) 238178130 Number of Forecasts 90 57 from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts ”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

22. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 22 NCEP COMPARISON: Apples to Oranges The following is from storm AL172008, which was an early November 2008 TC. It's the one AL storm with some history that was forecast by the OPAL OPS GFDN. FORECAST VERIFICATION RESULTS AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 GFDN 6.4 34.0 63.1 96.2 119.1 167.1 147.1 0.0 GFDL 6.0 43.8 63.5 74.4 82.5 111.6 262.5 0.0 #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0 AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 GFDN 12.7 18.8 25.6 33.5 37.9 16.0 27.0 0.0 GFDN 12.7 18.8 25.6 33.5 37.9 16.0 27.0 0.0 GFDL 9.2 20.6 18.3 14.8 14.4 26.0 39.0 0.0 GFDL 9.2 20.6 18.3 14.8 14.4 26.0 39.0 0.0 NCHG 0.0 24.6 43.3 51.5 53.1 40.0 5.0 0.0 NCHG 0.0 24.6 43.3 51.5 53.1 40.0 5.0 0.0 #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0 #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0

23. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 23 2008 Western Pacific Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm) (UKMet)

24. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 24 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2004 206 275 2005 212 263 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301447 Goal 200 250 from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

25. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 25 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2004 206 275 2005 212 263 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301447 Goal 200 250 from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

26. Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 26 JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr 2004 11 17 21 23 26 2005 12 18 24 25 25 2006 13 17 20 22 24 2007 13 18 20 24 26 2008 12 19 21 22 28 from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.