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SGN’s July 09 Mod 186 Report DCMF Meeting – July 27 th 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "SGN’s July 09 Mod 186 Report DCMF Meeting – July 27 th 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 SGN’s July 09 Mod 186 Report DCMF Meeting – July 27 th 2009

2 Scotland Revenue Data

3 Scotland – Commentary (1) Background Information * This is an increase to new rates under 95/5 methodology (implemented October 08) - not an increase to Oct 07 rates Disclaimer - Refer to published report Sensitivity Analysis – Refer to published report 2008/09 Pass through movement is due to a change in Formula Rates, NTS Pension and Licence Fees Incentive movement is primarily driven by increases in the Mains Replacement allowance and Innovation Funding offsetting decreases in the Shrinkage allowance

4 Scotland – Commentary (2) 2009/10 - 2012/13 Pass through movement is due to a change in Formula Rates, NTS Pension, Licence Fees and the Traffic Management Act TMA costs will be incurred during 2009/10, however we do not anticipate an Ofgem determination until later in 2010. Consequently 2010/11 includes the first two years of TMA allowances Incentive movement includes increases in the Environmental Emissions and Innovation Funding Incentive mechanisms - and the Discretionary Reward Scheme from 2010/11. From 2008/09 to 2009/10 the shrinkage allowance decreases from the inflated PCR shrinkage - however from 2010/11 onwards the shrinkage allowance increases No provision has been made for the potential tax reopener, however we anticipate there will not be a trigger of an Income Adjusting Event before 2010/11 2013/14 Due to 2013/14 being in a period of a yet undetermined Price Control Review - a working assumption has been made of total allowed revenue being 2012/13 allowed revenue with forecast RPI applied

5 Southern Revenue Data

6 Southern – Commentary (1) Background Information * This is an increase to new rates under 95/5 methodology (implemented October 08) - not an increase to Oct 07 rates Disclaimer - Refer to published report Sensitivity Analysis – Refer to published report 2008/9 Pass through movement is due to a change in Formula Rates, NTS pension and Licence Fees Incentive movement is primarily driven by decreases in the Shrinkage and Mains Replacement allowances - outweighing increases in Innovation Funding, Exit Capacity and Environmental Emissions allowances

7 Southern – Commentary (2) 2009/10 - 2012/13 Pass through movement is due to a change in Formula Rates, NTS Pension, Licence Fees and the Traffic Management Act TMA costs will be incurred during 2009/10, however we do not anticipate an Ofgem determination until later in 2010. Consequently 2010/11 includes the first two years of TMA allowances Incentive movement includes increases in the Environmental Emissions, Exit Incentive, Innovation Funding Incentive mechanisms - and the Discretionary Reward Scheme from 2010/11. From 2008/09 to 2010/11 the shrinkage allowance decreases from the inflated PCR shrinkage assumption - however from 2011/12 onwards the shrinkage allowance increases No provision has been made for the potential tax reopener, however we anticipate there will not be a trigger of an Income Adjusting Event before 2010/11 2013/14 Due to 2013/14 being in a period of a yet undetermined Price Control Review - a working assumption has been made of total allowed revenue being 2012/13 allowed revenue with forecast RPI applied


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