1. Modeling & Monitoring / Data Analysis Joint Session RPO National Workgroup Meeting December 3, 2002, 1:00 - 3:00 Crown Plaza, Dallas, TX

2. Session Format Guided, open discussion Focused on, but not limited to list of topics How we can/do use each others information Session notes will be sent to Discussion Group Leads within a week 10 minute break at 1:55, if needed

3. Discussion Topics Monitor to model comparison –Species mapping –Spatial representation –Temporal issues Supplemental measurements Unexplained fine mass Base year discussion Open discussion / Q&A

4. Model to Monitor Comparison Species mapping –Base inventories are speciated in the emissions processing steps and are maintained through the photochemical modeling Course/primary particles, aerosols, gasses Specific species that are not commonly measured Speciation is dependent on chemical mechanism –Examples provided by Kirk Baker follow

5. Speciation for Models Full CB4 = CMAQ, CAMx-M4, PMCAMx Micro-CB4 = REMSADv7

6. Model to Monitor Comparison Species mapping –Photochemical model outputs are specific fields on an hourly basis. – How modeled and monitored species are compared depends on the specific specie(s) of interest –Examples provided by Kirk Baker follow

8. Model to Monitor Comparison Species mapping –Current questions How to standardize species mapping Are composite species being compared correctly Are there monitoring (modeling) nuances that modeling (monitoring) should know Are there supplemental observations available for comparison with non-standard species Can modeling results be used to help make decisions on supplemental monitoring or special studies

9. Model to Monitor Comparison Spatial representation –Photochemical model output provides a value for a grid cell of some size 36km x 36km 1296 km 2 12km x 12km144 km 2 4km x 4 km16 km 2 –Methods include comparing monitored data to the value of the grid cell it is within, averages of surrounding grid cells, weighting schemes, etc.

10. Model to Monitor Comparison Spatial representation –Current questions What spatial extent are monitors representing –Urban v. rural –Geographic differences –Types of monitors –Differences between species –Seasonal considerations What are the best methods for comparing spatial information (modeled) with point measurements

11. Model to Monitor Comparison Temporal issues –Photochemical model output is hourly –Monitored data varies from continuous to 24- hour integrated samples taken every few days –Diurnal patterns help diagnose model performance and model representation of real world physical and chemical processes

12. Model to Monitor Comparison Temporal issues –Unrealistic to maintain a significant network of continuous, speciated monitors at this time –Modeling could utilize targeted short term supplemental measurements of continuous standard and non-standard measurements –Can preliminary model results be used to identify areas of interest such as chemical gradients, flow corridors, diurnal, seasonal, or specie specific areas of interest, for targeted supplemental monitoring –What can be learned from BRAVO, SAMI, OZZIE, etc.

13. Supplemental Measurements Are additional field studies being considered Is it plausible to plan for short term, targeted continuous monitoring projects What is available or planned for information above the surface level Where and when would supplemental measurements make the most sense

14. Unexplained Fine Mass What is it? How to account for in model to monitor comparison Seasonality? Diurnal pattern? Can modeled moisture fields be of help

15. Base Year Discussion Current thought - 2002 –Most recent EI possible for regulatory modeling –Allows EI to focus efforts –More ambient data available (relatively) –Lacks new monitoring information currently coming on line –Scheduled time frame may be getting shortened –Any thoughts?

16. Open Discussion / Q&A