1. Application of HYCOM in Eddy- Resolving Global Ocean Prediction Community Effort: Community Effort: NRL, Florida State, U. of Miami, GISS, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/AOML, NOAA/PMEL, PSI, FNMOC, NAVOCEANO, SHOM, LEGI, OPeNDAP, UNC, Rutgers, USF, Fugro-GEOS, Orbimage, Shell, ExxonMobil Presented by Harley Hurlburt Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center, MS USA International GODAE Steering Team Meeting St. Johns, Newfoundland, Canada 7-9 August 2007 Part of HYCOM/GODAE project sponsored by the National Ocean Partnership Program

2. Global ProductMid-Lat Resolution Vert. Coord. InputsRun ByActual or Target Date 1/16  NLOM 7 kmLayered SSH, SST, hydro, FNMOC NOGAPS Atmospheric Forcing NAVOOP 9/01-3/06 1/8  NCOM 1 15 km  /z NAVOOP 2/06 1/32  NLOM 2 3.5 kmLayeredNAVOOP 3/06 1/12  HYCOM 3,5 7 km  /  /z NAVO2007 1/25  HYCOM 3.5 km  /  /z NAVO2011 Near Real-time demonstration 1/12  Atl. HYCOM 4,5 7 km  /  /z NRL2002 U.S. Navy Present and Planned Global Ocean Prediction Systems OP = operational 1 High vertical resolution for mixed layer prediction. Assimilates SSH from NLOM via T and S synthetic profiles. Web page http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom 2 Web page http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom 3 Running in real time at NAVO. 4 Under the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP), 1/12  Atlantic HYCOM demo is running in near real-time. Includes the Mediterranean Sea. 5 Results at http://www.hycom.org (100Tb LAS server at FSU)

3. Results from Real-Time 1/12  Global HYCOM with NCODA Data Assimilation Sea Surface Height (SSH) in cm NW Pacific SSH zoom on 12 Mar 2007 NAVOCEANO operational analysis of the Kuroshio front based on satellite AVHRR imagery is overlaid black segments are based on imagery > 4 days old Global SSH on 23 Mar 2007 Gray areas are ice covered

4. Sequential Incremental Update Cycle Analysis-Forecast-Analysis MVOI - simultaneous analysis 5 ocean variables temperature, salinity, geopotential, velocity (u,v) Ocean model HYCOM Ocean data QC Ocean data Analysis 3D MVOI & Cooper-Haines Ocean obs SST: GAC/LAC MCSST, GOES, Ship, Buoy Profile: XBT, CTD, T & S profiling Floats (ARGO), Fixed Buoy, Drifting Buoy Altimeter SSHA SSM/I Sea Ice Innovations Increments Forecast Fields Prediction Errors First Guess NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA)

5. NCODA Observation Locations

6. 1/12º Global HYCOM SSH and surface drifters in the Kuroshio Region

7. 1/12º Global HYCOM SSH and surface drifters in the Kuroshio Extension

8. World Ocean Gulf Stream Persian Gulf Equatorial Pacific Kuroshio Taiwan 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Median SSH anomaly correlation 010203001020300102030 Forecast length (days) Forecast Verification Statistics from 1/12  Global HYCOM  16 Forecasts included in statistics * Operational forcing reverts toward climatology at the end of the atmospheric forecast. Atmospheric analysis forcing operational forcing* persistence

10. Model Evaluation: Regional NCOM NCOM Regional (CCS) with SeaWifs Chlorophyll NCOM CCS 9 Km J. Kindle (NRL)

11. Model Evaluation: Tide Gauges Global NCOM and HYCOM Regional NCOM: Forced by NCOM and HYCOM Global HYCOM and NCOM nest represent Coastal Kelvin Wave Pulses More Accurately J. Kindle (NRL) ModelCorrelation HYCOM.87 NCOM.77 Boundary values from Correlation HYCOM.86 NCOM.75