1. CROP -TOTAL CLIMATE RISK COMPONENT From end to end- Land preparation, crop sowing –TO Harvest and post harvest operations Consider both –Direct impact- by moisture stress, water logging and on Crop physiology –Indirect impact – by triggering rapid increase of pests, diseases and vector populations that are already endemic. In any particular year a partiuclar combination of such ‘adverse events’ would occur It is possible to construct simple models for such climate impact by using –Existing literature –Expert knowledge of farmers, field researchers

2. Crop model Validation with observed yield

3. Optimal sowing window Frequently asked question No additional cost, but very high benefit for correct choice but, high penalty for wrong choice Need –long term daily rainfall, –crop simulation model, –soil data, –crop management data Simple model on pest and diseases would be desirable (Indirect impact of climate )

4. Recent shift in cropping patterns- Lack of experience of optimal sowing windows

5. Low chance of crop failure? – sow late

6. Best chances of High yields? – sow late

7. PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

9. High chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

10. Low chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

11. Chance of leaf miner incidence v/s sowing date

12. Chance of Late leaf spot v/s sowing date

13. DO WE ALWAYS NEED CROP MODELS? CAN WE USE CLIMATOLOGY? Climatology of the location- can it be used for similar analysis? Use of climate variability information for ‘Package of practices –Karnataka, May to July 15 th not further –Experience and crop simulation shows this to be “poor advice” –Generated on the basis of field experiments in Bangalore region- with ‘bimodal rainfall pattern’ Sowing late not followed because it has to be adopted in a large scale. Isolated cases will have pest and pathogen from the earlier crops

14. Simple model for Rainfed Groundnut At Anantpur- an example

15. Climate – Direct impact

16. Climate- indirect impact

17. TOTAL CLIMATE RISK FOR GROUNDNUT CROP

18. Validation of Model Prediction and Field data