1. Erik.Ranheim@intertanko.com Manager Research and Projects The Dynamic Tanker Market Tokyo 10 November 2004

2. VLCC price and freight rate m $‘000 $

3. Historic market – why? R ecord demand - unforeseen Commodity squeeze -T ight oil supply - record consumption O il production > consumption 2 and 3Q04 - high price and production L ow stocks, or do we know? P ersian Gulf long haul export up + 2.6 mbd F leet increasing - but less than demand? P hase out of SH P hase in of DH M oderate sales for decommissioning before 2010 R estricted shipyard capacity

4. Average monthly tanker spot rate and Middle East oil production Middle East oil prod mbd $ per day $ per day VL- AG East

5. Oil price and freight rates – real and nominal WS 200 $52

6. Middle East oil production mbd +2 mbd means+ 44/77 VLCCs E/W

7. Crude oil seaborne trade - Indices

8. Demand growth areas

9. World oil demand growth by region mbd Source: IEA

10. Chinese oil production and demand mbd

11. US crude oil import Source: EIA/DOE mbd Production

12. US product oil import Source: EIA/DOE

13. US total stocks - barrels m bbls

14. European crude oil import (up 2.7%) Source: OECD

15. European oil product import Source: OECD

16. Japanese crude import mbd

17. Japanese products imports mbd

18. World oil demand outlook- EIA mbd

19. World oil demand outlook- IEA mbd

20. World oil supply outlook- IEA mbd

21. FSU crude oil and products export Other export: 0.5 mbd, Sakhalin/North mbd

22. Tanker supply

23. Tanker Fleet Development 92-04 M dwt Number Source: Clarkson

24. Tanker phase out - m dwt

25. Phase out 5-29,999 dwt- no. 3.5 m dwt 2.4 m dwt

26. Phase out Aframaxes Number

27. VLCC phase out - number Subject to administrations ** LOOP, lightering areas exempted

28. Tanker renewal - fleet by hull ?

29. Tanker trade by hull 2003 – 960 m ts % SH average 40%

30. VLCC trade 1H04 - 494 m dwt (960 m dwt 2003) m dwt Source. Fearnleys

31. VLCC trade 1H04 - 494 m dwt (960 m dwt 2003) Source. Fearnleys

32. Sales for decommissioning m dwt

33. Tanker fleet development m dwt

34. Shipyards activity JapanS Korea m cgt Source: MSR

35. VLCC price development Mil YenMil USD Dec 91: Max 13,860 m Yen/Dec 91 $110 m April 95: Min 7,064 m Yen/Sep 02 $62.5 m Nov04 : 11,108 m Yen/ $105m Steelprice: Mil WonMil USD

36. Conclusion

37. Gasoline price at the pump

38. Conclusion D emand -continue to increase - slower pace H igh deliveries – stronger fleet increase M odern fleet M oderate phase out/sales for decommissioning Y ard capacity increasing N ewbuilding prices declining