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PetSmart Corp. Real Client Managed Portfolio PetSmart (PETM) November 14, 2013 Alex Johansson, Charlie Penicook & Zi Jian Gu
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Agenda ❏ Introduction ❏ Holding Information ❏ Macroeconomic Overview ❏ Industry Overview ❏ Company Overview ❏ Financial Analysis ❏ Valuation ❏ Recommendation
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Current Holding Information ❏ May 3rd, 2012: ❏ Acquired 100 shares @ $58.88 ❏ Cost Basis = $5,888 ❏ November 29th, 2013: ❏ Hold Recommendation ❏ November 14th, 2013: ❏ Current holding 100 shares @ $73.02 ❏ HPR = 24%
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Macroeconomic Overview October jobs report better than expected o 204,00 jobs added - 2x expectations Unemployment rose to 7.3% from 7.2% Possible reduction in quantitative easing due to stronger jobs report o May consider reduction at December’s Fed Meeting Income & job gap widens in uneven recovery Source: LATimes, Forbes, WSJ (URLs in notes)
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Industry Analysis - Catalysts Number of Pets - Demand for industry goods increases as households adopt more pets - Owners spend $250/year on pet food - Continual growth of number of pets creates growth catalyst. - Predicted 4% growth in industry revenue through 2018 Per Capita Disposable Income - Per capita disposable income is expected to increase slowly in 2013 - Consumers perceive pets as family members - pet products are considered non-discretionary - A decrease in disposable income has little affect on demand because pet goods are non-discretionary - Purchase of greater quantity of goods and premium items when disposable income increases - Growth of “pet parents ” Source: IBISWorld Industry Report - Pet Stores in the US (Pg. 4 & 5)
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Source : IBISWorld Industry Report - Pet Stores in the US (URLs in notes) Industry Overlook - New product introductions and rising number of enterprises - Industry growing at 3.5%, economy is growing at 2.1% - Variety of premium pet foods allows high price with large markups - Services has been the fast growing segment - Supply Segment faces huge competition from large merchandises
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Source: IBISWorld Industry Report - Pet Stores in the US (URLs in notes) Industry Overlook Customer Demographics - Age 35 to 54 accounts for more than 50% of the pet ownership - Steady Income and consider pets as family members Changing Competition - Supermarkets attracted many budget-conscious consumers by offering low quality goods - Expected to remain strong for basic pet supplies - Niche products become keys to succeed
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Industry Performance - Growing industry and phenomenal growth the past 10 years - Continuous growth due to increase in number of pets and pet owners’ attitudes towards them - 68.0% of US households own a pet - growth rates have translated into rising demand for pet products - Continual growth from 2008 - 2012, even during the recession - The emerging trend of pet parents has also commanded high demand for premium pet products and services - Net profit margins have increased to 3.5% from 3.0% in 2008 Source: IBISWorld Industry Report - Pet Stores in the US (URL in notes)
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Industry Analysis - Porter’s Five Forces Source: IBISWorld Industry Report - Pet Stores in the US
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Company Overview ❏ Specialty Retailer ❏ Products, services, and solutions for pets ❏ 1,278 stores ❏ Offers a variety of pets for sale (no cats or dogs) ❏ PetSmart Pet Hotel ❏ Animal Hospital (operate by Banfield) ❏ Banfield is a partially owned subsidiary ❏ Services include grooming & training services Source: PETM 2012 10-K; (Pg. 4, 5). IBISWorld Industry Report - Pet Stores in the US (Pg. 2)
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Company Overview ❏ Company Strategy ❏ Innovative product and services development ❏ Engaging with customers ❏ Financial Outlook ❏ Net sales increased 10.5% to $6.8 billion in 2012 from $6.1 billion in 2011 ❏ Comparable store sales increased 6.3% in 2012 from a 5.4% increase in 2011 Source: PETM 2012 10-K; (Pg. 23-25)
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Risk Factors ❏ A decline in consumer spending or detrimental change in consumer behavior. ❏ Mis-management of inventory ❏ Increasing competition among specialty retailers ❏ A disruption or increased costs of supply chain ❏ Operation of Banfield pet hospitals diminishes ❏ Comparable store sales growth decreases Source: PETM 2012 10-K; (Pg. 7-14)
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Company Overview ❏ Recent News ❏ October 17, 2013: ❏ Continues to expect the Earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $0.83 to $0.87, ❏ Comparable store sales growth to be in the range of 2.2-2.5%, compared to 3-4%. ❏ total sales growth in the range of 3-4% ❏ Earnings per share in the range of $3.88 to $3.98. ❏ September 26, 2013: ❏ Increase its quarterly dividend by 18% to $0.195 from $0.165 per share beginning in the third quarter of fiscal 2013. ❏ The dividend of $0.195 will be paid on November 15, 2013 Source: PETM 2012 10-K; (Pg. 23-25); OneSource (URL in notes)
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Management Outlook ❏ Challenges include: ❏ Operation in a highly competitive market ❏ Volatility of macro-economy ❏ Cash flow from operations adequate to meet operating, investing and financing needs in the short-term ❏ Assess economic conditions to guide decisions on use of cash ❏ Continual evaluation of store performance ❏ 46 net new stores opened in 2012 Source: PETM 2012 10-K (Pg. 23-25)
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Company Overview - SWOT Source: OneSource Information Service: PetSmart,Inc.
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Recent PETM Performance Source: Yahoo! Finance
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PetSmart Financials
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PetSmart Financials – Sales Growth Source: OneSource Information Service: PetSmart,Inc.
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PetSmart Financials - Profitability Source: OneSource Information Service: PetSmart,Inc.
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PetSmart Financials – Efficiency Source: OneSource Information Service: PetSmart,Inc.
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PetSmart Financials - Solvency Source: OneSource Information Service: PetSmart,Inc.
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PetSmart Financials - DuPont Source: OneSource Information Service: PetSmart,Inc.
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No Comparables Analysis PetSmart is the only publicly traded retailer devoted to pet products and services Petco. is a private company—No Financials Big-Box Competitors aren’t related enough Specialty Retail
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Technical Analysis
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Decision Drivers Continued growth during economic downturn Diversified product offering Market saturation concerns o Demographic slowdown o New store expansion Increased competition from big box retailers, e-commerce Consistent dividend growth
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Equity Valuation
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Recommendation DCF Valuation: $71.65 Current Price: $ 73.02 Recommendation: HOLD
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