1. Lecture 21: Democratization May 14, 2010

2. Democracies Today http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=363&year=2010

5. “Waves” of Democratization 1) 19 th century (Western Europe, America, Argentina) 1) 19 th century (Western Europe, America, Argentina) 2) Post-WWII (Africa, South Asia, Germany, Japan) 2) Post-WWII (Africa, South Asia, Germany, Japan) 3) 1975-1994 (Southern Europe, Latin America, Eastern Europe) 3) 1975-1994 (Southern Europe, Latin America, Eastern Europe) Reverse waves Reverse waves Interwar Interwar 1960s-70s 1960s-70s Mid-1990s-present? Mid-1990s-present?

6. Definitions Democracy: people elect leaders who translate citizen preferences into policy Democracy: people elect leaders who translate citizen preferences into policy Electoral democracy: Regularly contested, multi-party, free and fair elections with universal adult suffrage Electoral democracy: Regularly contested, multi-party, free and fair elections with universal adult suffrage Liberal democracy = electoral + civil liberties: rule of law, separation of powers, freedom of speech, assembly, religion Liberal democracy = electoral + civil liberties: rule of law, separation of powers, freedom of speech, assembly, religion Electoral autocracies: tainted elections & limited liberties Electoral autocracies: tainted elections & limited liberties

7. Why the 3 rd Wave? 1) Economic growth  Middle class

8. Income and Democracy GDP/capita Democracy

9. Income and Democracy GDP/capita Democracy Former UK island colonies, Costa Rica South Africa India Gulf states Singapore

10. Why the 3 rd Wave? 1) Economic growth 2) Economic crises in 1970s 3) Catholic Church 4) Leadership

11. Leaders

12. Why the 3 rd Wave? 1) Economic growth 2) Economic crises in 1970s 3) Catholic Church 4) Individuals 5) External influence 6) End of Cold War 7) Demonstration effect

13. “People Power” Manila, 1986 Prague, 1989

14. Other factors/non-factors Culture Culture Protestant vs. Catholic/Orthodox/Confucian Protestant vs. Catholic/Orthodox/Confucian Islamic democracy Islamic democracy Arab democracy? Arab democracy?

15. (Non)democracy in Arab Countries

16. Other factors/non-factors Culture Culture Protestant vs. Catholic/Orthodox/Confucian Protestant vs. Catholic/Orthodox/Confucian Islamic democracy? Islamic democracy? Arab democracy? Arab democracy? Resource curse Resource curse

17. Does Democracy  Peace? Democratic Peace Theory Democratic Peace Theory No wars between democracies No wars between democracies Shared values? Shared values? Mechanism for conflict resolution? Mechanism for conflict resolution? Dems prefer easy targets? Dems prefer easy targets? Transitions are violent Transitions are violent Elections give politicians incentives to mobilize people Elections give politicians incentives to mobilize people Worse in ethnically diverse countries Worse in ethnically diverse countries Use fear to win votes Use fear to win votes Implication  Sequencing: liberal institutions before elections Implication  Sequencing: liberal institutions before elections