1. Conditions for Convection The Ingredients Method

2. Conditions for Convection Instability Moisture Upmotion

3. Analyse and forecast Conditions for Deep Moist Convection Conditions for Deep Moist Convection Based on observations, radar, satellite, NWP UpmotionUpmotion Instability Instability MoistureMoisture Lifted Index, CAPE, lapse rate, potential instability Surface and lower tropospheric dew points, dry lines NWP omega fields Lifting mechanisms: fronts, troughs, conv. lines, sea breezes, orography

4. Analyse and forecast Conditions for Deep Moist Convection Conditions for Deep Moist Convection Based on observations, radar, satellite, NWP Instability Instability Lifted Index, CAPE, lapse rate, potential instability MoistureMoisture Surface and lower tropospheric dew points, dry lines UpmotionUpmotion NWP omega fields Lifting mechanisms: fronts, troughs, conv. lines, sea breezes, orography

5. Conditions for Deep Moist Convection Instability Upmotion Moisture Charles Doswell III

6. Conditions for Deep Moist Convection CIN Instability Moisture Upmotion Click on a topic for more detail Moisture

7. Conditions for Deep Moist Convection CIN Instability Moisture Upmotion Click on a topic for more detail Moisture Animate

8. Conditions for Deep Moist Convection CIN Instability Moisture Upmotion Click on a topic for more detail Moisture

9. Click on any topic for more details and examples Conceptual models Moisture Upmotion Instability Ingredients COMET module Analysis Modification CAPE Other Development Tasman Sea Baiu front Sounding Basics Convective Inhibition (CIN) Convective Inhibition (CIN) Potential instability Potential instability Role Development and erosion Early vs late storms Animated CAPE and other indices CAPE and other indices Surface influences Surface influences Albedo Vegetation Soil moisture Instability

10. Click on any topic for more details and examples Conceptual models Moisture Upmotion Instability Ingredients Energy for updrafts Instability Entrainment Mid-level evaporation Surface obs. Parameters (T d, T w, RH, precipitable water, moisture conv.) Roles Detection Ocean/sea/lake Surface evaporation Advection Other Roles Downdrafts Precipitation Sources Evaporating precipitation Soundings Satellite imagery Hail formation Radar Moisture

11. Click on any topic for more details and examples Conceptual models Moisture Upmotion Instability Ingredients Convergence Zones Fronts Troughs Dry lines Other Outflow boundaries Barrier: mountain range Funnelling: canyon Convective rolls Low level jet Change of vegetation Previous rain or outflow Cloud edge Anvil Sea breeze Land breeze Lake breeze KatabaticAnabatic Strongly forced Gravity waves Differential heating Differential heating Mechanical Other Land-sea breeze Mountain breeze Mountain breeze Cloud cover Land surface Urban effects Upmotion Romanian examples

12. Convergence Models - Romania Convergence zone Back building squall line Mountain breeze Sea breeze Northern convergence flow Southern convergence flow

13. Convergence Zone

14. Sea Breeze

15. Sea Breeze example

16. Back Building Squall Line

17. Back Building Squall Line (cont)

18. Back Building Squall Line example

19. Mountain Breeze

20. Mountain Breeze example

21. Northern Convergence Flows

22. Northern Convergence Flow example

23. Southern Convergence Flows

24. Southern Convergence Flows ex. 1 When a low pressure system is situated North of Romania, the inland sea breeze circulation is deflected toward North, and a convergent flow forms in the SE of Romania. If other ingredients are in place, severe convection develops along the convergent flow. This was the case of the strongest tornado recorded in Romania, Facaeni 12 August 2002. The wind field analyzed by ALADIN model for this case and the radar image of the hook echo are shown.

25. Southern Convergence Flows ex. 2

29. Click on any topic for more details and examples Conceptual models Moisture Upmotion Instability Ingredients COMET module Analysis Modification CAPE Other Development Tasman Sea Baiu front Sounding Basics CAPE and other indices CAPE and other indices Convective Inhibition (CIN) Convective Inhibition (CIN) Potential instability Potential instability Other Role Development and erosion Early vs late storms Animated Instability

30. Click on any topic for more details and examples Conceptual models Moisture Upmotion Instability Ingredients For each type: Conceptual model Examples Case studies How to detect Forecasting Competencies Test yourself Data – how to detect/anticipate/deduce/forecast