1. “Rogue Valley Climate Trends & Projections” How Climate is affecting the Applegate Alan Journet Ph.D. http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com 541-301-4107 Presentation (as ppt or pdf) on web site: click ‘http://socan.info/previous-presentations-handouts/’ http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com

2. THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends For those who plan to nap through my presentation….

3. 2014 Global Temperatures 1880 – 2014 cf 1951-1980 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif 0 0.36 -0.36 0.72 -0.72 1.08 ⁰F⁰F

4. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100) 3.6 ⁰ F 7.2 ⁰ F 10.8 ⁰ F 14.4 ⁰ F 18.0 ⁰ F 21.6 ⁰ F

5. Historic Trends are based on DATA The Future is Based on Projections:

6. Medford Average Temperature History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford 2014 Ave 58.9

7. Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections 1961-1990 Ave – 50.03 0 F Summer Ave – 63.58 0 F Winter Ave – 38.17 0 F Business As Usual

8. Projected Increases 2035-2045 Average 1.6 – 4 ⁰ F (51.6 – 53.8 ⁰ F) Winter 1 – 3.5 ⁰ F (39.1 – 41.7 ⁰ F) Summer 1 – 6 ⁰ F (64.4 – 69.5 ⁰ F) August 1 – 7.5 ⁰ F (67.1 – 73.5 ⁰ F) 2075-2085 Average 4.3 – 8.2 ⁰ F (54.3 – 58.2 ⁰ F) Winter 3.4 – 6.3 ⁰ F (41.5 – 44.5 ⁰ F) Summer 5.5 – 11.8 ⁰ F (69.1 – 75.4 ⁰ F) August 6.7 – 16.8 ⁰ F (72.7 – 82.8 ⁰ F)

9. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

10. > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F

11. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4.0 ⁰ F

12. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp > 8.0 ⁰ F > 4. 0 ⁰ F

13. US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford 100 Degree Days History EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT

14. Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100 o F Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

15. Historic Precipitation Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. National increase of 5% Substantial Regional Difference

16. Medford Annual Precipitation - Inches Historic US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

17. http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp

18. 46 http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment Projected Precipitation Seasonal Pattern – High Emissions Scenarios = ‘Business As Usual’

19. 1958 – 2007 Historic Heavy Downpours (Heaviest 1% of all events): % Increase in Freq. Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More events featuring heavy downpours

20. 1958 – 2007 Historic Increase in Amount of pptn falling in Heavy Downpours Pattern – Heaviest 1% as Amount in Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More precipitation in the heavier downpours

21. Projected Patterns in Light, Moderate & Heavy Precipitatio n Events by 2090s Reduced Light Drizzle Days Increased Heavy Downpour Days Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

23. Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft N. California 1950 - 2000 Below 7500’ 13% decline Above 7500’ 12% increase

24. 2006-20352036-20652066-2095 http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_2010-14.pdf Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections Green: Decreasing Drought  7 months fewer per 30 years Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought  over 60 months more per 30 yrs – Business as usual

26. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west U.S. Population affected by this drought: 49,859,169 65% of west is D0 or above Over 6 months January 6 th 2015

27. The Short-term Future http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.html

28. http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf Declining snowpack leads to reduced water supply in our ‘natural’ reservoirs. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Red = decreasing snow water Blue = increasing snow water

29. Spring Snowmelt Dates - Critical in West Longitude Latitude Impact on streams – both peak timing and flow rate Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

30. Projected Stream Flow Timing in Western States Historic Stream Flow Timing in Western States

31. Projected PNW Run-off Timing Run-off peak  earlier & lower Late summer run-off  lower Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Warming & Loss of Snowpack

32. 0.5 ⁰ C is the difference between a high fire year and a low fire year. (http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate- change-yellowstone-fires.html )http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate- change-yellowstone-fires.html Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high when annual average temperature is high and when snowmelt arrives early. Western Wildfires & Climate Change Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed

33. Jet Stream and the Arctic Oscillation Polar Air Pressure Low - air rising Polar Air Pressure High - air falling http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unusually-cold-spring-in-europe-and-the-southeast-us-due-to-the-arct

34. Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/03/07/climate-change-may- be-affecting-the-jet-stream/ COLD WARM COLD WARM

35. Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation) Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed; Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize. Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH. 2007 Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. http://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdfhttp://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdf But this is not enough….. Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation) Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.

36. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas B UT 30 X CO 2 296 X CO 2 Approximately 75%> 75% The Problem? Greenhouse gases released by human activity: Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.

37. Rogue Valley: Use of These Fuels Private cars/trucks Public Transit Local Freight Transportation 32% Energy 24% Materials = Stuff 44% Energy to make stuff Energy to transport stuff here Fossil Fuels for energy production Energy used in our homes & local businesses Natural gas for heating Clothes, shoes, ‘phones, TVs

38. Our Future: Do The Math! http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2 / There IS Urgency!! http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/7/521/2014/essdd-7-521-2014.pdf

39. We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively Money inflows & outflows Back in the Day… Now…. Energy Accounting GHG CO 2 Carbon Accounting Hopium

40. http://socan.info Co-Facilitators: Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.comalanjournet@gmail.com Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.comkathleendconway@gmail.com MEETINGS: (Last Tuesday) Special Topic Presentation 6:00 pm – 6:30pm General Meeting 6:30 – 7:30 pm Action Activities Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

41. Questions? Any comments or questions ????