1. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal fisheries to climate change Scientific support for the management of Coastal and Oceanic Fisheries in the Pacific Islands region (SciCOFish) Funded by European Union (10 th EDF) Summary of possible climate change effects that may influence CEAFM activities in the Pacific region

2. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Sea level rise Relative sea-level = level of the sea surface relative to the land Net relative sea level trend since 1994 is around 4 to 6 mm/year Map of region showing net relative sea level trends (in mm/year) after subtracting the effects of the vertical movement of the platform and the inverse barometric pressure effect, utilising all the data collected since the start of the project up to the end of December 2009 (Australia Bureau of Meteorology - Sea Level & Climate report - December 2009) Sea level will rise between 0.75 and 1.90 by 2100 (Vermeer & Rahmstorf 2009) Adding up to storm surges, swell, ENSO,... Increased sedimentation due to erosion of shorelines Degradation of coastal freshwater aquifers Loss of mangrove area (12-50%) Land loss

3. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Ocean acidification Ocean acidification is unavoidable with current CO 2 emissions. Decrease of calcification productivity Less resilience to corals diseases and other perturbations Loss of coral biodiversity is to be expected From Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. Science Vol. 318. no. 5857. 2010 ~2030 ~2050 ~2070

4. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Increase of SST and thermal stress An extended period where sea surface temperature (SST) is 1°C greater than the maximum in monthly climatology causes thermal stress and bleaching Frequency that annual degree heating month >1 (PCM model /A2 scenario) from Donner et al. 2005 Bleaching is expected to become more and more frequent in the future, with less time for recovery

5. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Changes in precipitations A2 scenario A lot of uncertainty remains on changes in precipitations over small islands. Precipitations are also largely influenced by El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Changes in rainfall patterns will impact the sediment and nutrient inputs to the reef areas. Region2010-20392040-20392070-2099 North Pacific -6.3 to +9.1-19.2 to +21.3-2.7 to +25.8 South Pacific -3.9 to +3.4-8.23 to +6.7-14.0 to +14.6 Projected changes in precipitations over small islands by region (%) from 7 models and 4 scenarios (IPTC 2008)

6. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Impact on coastal fisheries Climate change will likely cause habitat loss and possibly change in recruitment and larval dispersion. These threats will add up to overfishing with a feedback effect : Reef herbivorous species (grazers, bioeroders and scrapers) are essential to ensure coral resilience to destructive events (bleaching, cyclones,…) and preventing macroalgae from colonizing the area after the event. Overfishing of these species increases the impact of climate change on habitat. Protection of herbivorous species by communities and notification to technical services of major changes in habitat is essential

7. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Impact on oceanic fisheries Climate change models predict that warm pool and primary production will move to the East. Tuna distribution and abundance has been shown to be sensitive to ENSO and will change with displacement of the warm pool Further studies are conducted by the SPC Oceanic Fisheries and Climate Change Project (OFCCP / GLOBEC)

8. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Building resilience to climate change The healthiest the environment, the better its chances to survive climate change stressors. Conservation actions improve resilience to climate change : Reducing overfishing especially protecting herbivores Stopping harmful fishing practices (trampling, dynamiting, poisoning,...) Reducing pollution (nutrients, chemicals) Reducing sedimentation (deforestation, infrastructures, dredging) Protecting coral reefs and associated habitats (mangrove, seagrass)

9. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Monitoring climate change impact Oceanographic environment Remote sensing, in-situ loggers Habitat supporting coastal fisheries Benthic cover surveys through photoquadrats Habitat mapping (satellite imagery and ground truthing) Algal bloom (dinoflagellates) and water quality sampling Fish and invertebrate resources Underwater Visual Census, selected commercial families Commercial/edible invertebrates through a combination of manta tow, scuba and shallow water transects. Fisheries Market and landing surveys Household & census surveys

10. Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM) Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010 Funded by European Union SciCOFish Alternatives to reef fisheries Nearshore FADsInshore FADsSmall pond aquaculture