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Published byAbner Ellis Modified over 9 years ago
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World population, : poor share of total increased from 66% to 80% rich population doubled; poor almost fivefold Iraq Afghanistan 5.0 (1900) 27.8 (2000)
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Demographic transitions compared, rich vs
Demographic transitions compared, rich vs. poor countries: annual growth rates,
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Relation between TFR and e0 25 less developed countries, 1950-55: great diversity
Iraq, tfr= 7.2; e0=43 Afghanistan tfr=6.7; e0=31
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Relation between TFR and e0 25 LARGE less developed, 1995-2000: transition well advanced
Afghanistan tfr=6.0; e0=45 Iraq, tfr= 5.4; e0=58
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Strong inverse correlation between sewage system and 0-4 mortality in 55 poor countries, 1980s
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Per capita GDP and e0 in 25 less developed countries, : big increases at moderate levels of GDP
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DDT eradication halved the crude death rate in malarial zones of Sri Lanka, 1930-1960
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Burden of premature death and disease by world region, 1998: inequalities are large and larger yet between continents
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Contraception was major factor in reducing fertility from natural levels, 31 countries
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Per capita GDP and TFR, 25 less developed countries, 1995-2000—weak correlation
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Literacy and TFR, 25 less developed countries, 1980s—strong correlation
Afghanistan tfr=6.0; illit=70% Iraq, tfr= 5.4; illit: 30%
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Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with natural fertility, 1990
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The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates (1990)
None Primary Secondary Post
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Decline in TFR by level of development and family planning, 1982-90: both required
Test of unmet need thesis
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“Wanted” TFR vs. actual TFR, by region, late 1980s-early 1990s
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“Unwanted” children (%) vs
“Unwanted” children (%) vs. actual TFR, by region, late 1980s-early 1990s No correlation
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% current contraceptors is strongly correlated with actual TFR, in all regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)
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% current contraceptors and “wanted” fertility: also strongly correlated, in all regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)
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Availability of contraception is not enough: % current contraceptors is not strongly correlated with unwanted children, in all regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)
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China, age structure: 1950 & 2025 the effects of fertility decline
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India, age structure: 1950 & 2025 the effects of partial fertility decline
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Increase in population and per capita GNP: 27 less developed countries, 1970-92
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Increase in population 1950-70 & GNP pc: 27 less developed countries, 1970-92
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Increase in population and per capita GNP: 27 less developed countries, 1950-92
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Asia: the boom in labor force growth is over: much GREATER than for coming 30 years, except for Muslim countries
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Increase in labor force, 1995-2025/1965-1995: Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, the boom is underway: much GREATER IN COMING 30 years than for
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Gross investment and working age population selected countries
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Malawi: rapid fertility decline (from 7. 6 in 1980 to 4
Malawi: rapid fertility decline (from 7.6 in 1980 to 4.0) reduces schooling costs 50% by 2015—over modest fertility decline (tfr=5.5) 2005, tfr= 6.5
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