2.  Two EPSRC-funded projects are providing the time to think about new modelling paradigms: › VISIONS (2008-2011) › STEP-CHANGE (2010-2015)  Techniques based upon these new paradigms can be used in other policy research

3.  It is useful to distinguish two time horizons for policy research: › Short-term › Long-term  Though it always needs to be recognised that many (most?) short-term policies have long-term consequences

4.  Our basic contention is that traditional modelling techniques have been developed for a short-term time horizon  The new modelling paradigms are concerned about long-term futures › And are thus of obvious relevance to “sustainability thinking”

5. Two key factors need to be taken into account when thinking about the long term  Behaviour is likely to change › So that models based upon present-day observations are problematic  The future actions of organisations, institutions, political movements etc need to be taken into account

6.  The focus of the new modelling paradigms is upon social/political change  Though other types of change need to be taken into account (technological, environmental etc)  Why and how does change occur? (e.g. is it sudden or incremental)

7.  To help better understand change, it is important to examine historical evidence concerning past changes  Such changes could be in any area (i.e. not only in transport)  We can thus construct “typologies of change”

8.  At the heart of the new modelling paradigms are: METAPHORS  taken from various disciplines, including: › natural science (biology) › social science › humanities (literature, art, music)

9. Real world Metaphors Model representations