1. Theory of change: ‘Description of a sequence of events expected to lead to a particular desired outcome’, Rick Davies
For whom? Defined by whom? Significant for whom?
LONG-TERM, LASTING CHANGES
Impact
CONTEXTUAL DRIVERS
Socio-economic, political,
Technological factors
Existing policies,
practices, beliefs
Actors, networks in research,
policy and practice
Capacity of target
groups to respond
Receptiveness of context
Organizations,
resources,
systems, skills
Scaling up/out of changes in knowledge, attitude, skills , practices, policies through actor networks etc.
MEDIUM TERM CHANGES
Sphere of indirect influence – policy
shapers, knowledge networks, planners,
practitioners, stakeholder groups
Changes in e.g. practices , policies, allocations
SHORT-TERM CHANGES
Sphere of direct influence – partners, collaborators, stakeholders
immediate programme target groups
Changes in e.g. knowledge, attitudes , skills, relationships
Theory of Change (ToC)-based approach to M&E, impact assessment and communications.
A theory of change is the cause-and-effect logic that links research activities to the desired changes in the actors that a project or program wishes to. Monitoring and evaluation of implementation can test and refine the road map, while communications helps in reaching the destination by helping to bring about change. The value of testing and refining the model/road map is that it challenges pre-conceptions, assists reflection and catalyses staff to frequently ask themselves:
‘Are we going in the right direction? Are we doing the right thing to achieve the changes we want to see?’ What else needs to be happening to support the changes we wish to see?’
Key things to remember:
the ToC is not literal, it represents the perspectives of those who put it together, and so are only partial.
Differences in viewpoint are important to acknowledge – implementing teams will have different views to designers – shouldn’t try to merge ToCs but use them to guide discussions, something might have been missed.
Should be revised in the light of experience and M&E
Sphere of control
Programme strategy:
Activities, stakeholder
engagement; outputs
What needs to be happening to support this change?
Used by main actor / stakeholder groups
Outputs = products + comms + incentives + networks
Isabel Vogel,

2. CGIAR, Water and Food Challenge Fund, http://monitoring. cpwf

3. Roads and development in Eastern DRC Theory of Change, DFID DRC
Diagram – should be meaningful, can be a network map or flow diagram, but should aim to be clear for others to grasp how you see this change process working.