2. Drought Update Dealing with Drought Workshop February 12, 2013

3. Droughts in the Past From: A thousand years of drought and climatic variability in Kansas: Implications for water resources management by Anthony L. Layzell, KGS Open File Report 2012-18

4. Kansas Conditions

5. Drought Outlook

6. Precipitation

7. Vegetative Conditions

8. Additional Moisture Needed

9. Spring Outlook

10. Early Summer Precipitation Outlook

11. K-State Research & Extension Why? Transition in the ENSO – Currently neutral ENSO signal – Expected El Niño hasn’t developed – Neutral conditions to continue for the Spring

12. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Issued 3 February 2013 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts below-average SSTs during N. Hemisphere winter 2012-13, and a gradual increase in SST anomalies into summer 2013.

13. Sites to Remember Climate Prediction Center Forecasts – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ Kansas Geological Survey – http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Hydro/Publications/2012/OFR12_18/index.html http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Hydro/Publications/2012/OFR12_18/index.html USDA Joint Agricultural Weather – http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/index.htm http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/index.htm National Weather Service – http://weather.gov http://weather.gov Weather Data Library – http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/wdl http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/wdl

14. Mary Knapp Weather Data Library 1703 Throckmorton Kansas State University Manhattan, KS 66506 PH: 785 532-7019 E-mail: Mknapp@ksu.eduMknapp@ksu.edu URL: http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/wdl/