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Published byHoward James Modified over 8 years ago
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FUN Valuation Overview (Perpetual Growth Exit Method) February 2009
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1 Summary of FUN Valuation Methodology SPE Internal DCF values FUN at $180 - $210MM Prior 3 year forecast (2008 through 2010) is now dated based on 2008 actual performance and revised 2009 budget – 2008 actual revenues were below budget by 14% – 2009 budgeted revenue is below prior forecast by 22% As a basis for an SPE internal valuation exercise, we reduced the prior revenue forecast for 2010 by 22% then applied declining revenue growth rates for 2011 through 2014 DCF included sensitivities applied to revenue growth through 2014 and perpetual growth rate for exit – Analyzed 2010 revenue growth starting at 20-30% with growth slowing by 5% per year thereafter – Used perpetuity growth rates of 2-5% (with a discount rate of 16.5%)
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2 Base Case FUN Valuation
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3 Valuation Sensitivity
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FUN Valuation Overview [Include Comps and Exit Multiple] February 2009
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5 Summary of FUN Valuation Methodology SPE Internal DCF values FUN at $180 - $205MM Prior 3 year forecast (2008 through 2010) is now dated based on 2008 actual performance and revised 2009 budget – 2008 actual revenues were below budget by 14% – 2009 budgeted revenue is below prior forecast by 22% As a basis for an SPE internal valuation exercise, we reduced the prior revenue forecast for 2010 by 22% then applied declining revenue growth rates for 2011 through 2014 DCF included sensitivities applied to revenue growth and exit multiples – Analyzed 2010 revenue growth starting at 20-30% with growth slowing by 5% per year thereafter – Used exit multiples with a 10%-25% discount to exit multiples in similarly sized deals to account for the fact that we are acquiring a minority stake Direct M&A comps had EBITDA multiples of 9.1x and revenue multiples of 2.3x Results in exit EBITDA multiples of 6.8 – 8.2x and exit revenue multiples of 1.7-2.1x – As direct M&A comps are dated; validated small company exit multiples by confirming they are reasonable relative to current multiples for public game and internet companies 9.1x EBITDA multiple for M&A comps implies a 7% control premium relative to current average internet EBITDA multiple of 8.5x 2.3x Revenue multiple for M&A comps implies 64% control premium relative to current average internet Revenue multiple of 1.4
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6 Base Case FUN Valuation
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7 Valuation Sensitivity
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8 Exit Multiples from Directly Comparable Transactions (Per Liberty / FUN Acquisition Proxy)
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9 Trading Multiples for Internet and Video Game Companies (1) As of market close February 2, 2009 (2) FY ends March 2009 Values in MM
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