1.  Development progress key messages o Income poverty o Education o Health  The Poverty Monitoring System (PMS)  Links with other government processes Outline

2. Income poverty Measured by two surveys: 1992 and 2001 Falling poverty in Dar (Statistically) inconclusive elsewhere … but the likely picture is a general fall in poverty

3. The change in poverty is not large enough to indicate a definite drop in poverty What happened between these years? What is the trend since 2001? World Bank analysis helps fill in the gaps…

4. GDP data is measured every year World Bank has used this, combined with survey data, to model poverty trends GDP trend: negative growth (per person) in the early 1990s, followed by growth

6. The best estimate of the poverty trend is: A rise in poverty up to 1994 Followed by a fall – continuing to the current period

7. To halve poverty by 2015 (MDG target) will require around 6% growth a year To halve poverty by 2010 (Mkukuta) will require 8%

8. Inequality Tz has low inequality relative to other African countries Inequality remained stable during the 1990s But significant geographical variations do exist

10. Good progress in access primary school Removal of fees led to dramatic rise in enrolments Retention rates – slower to improve but now increasing More children passing exams More teachers, schools and classrooms …but issues around quality remain a challenge…

11. Large increase in teachers and schools But has not kept pace with dramatic increase in pupils Leading to larger class sizes – also fewer books per child Secondary schools - Enrolment rates remain very low - Drop-out rates are high, particularly after form 4

12. During the 1990s child mortality remained high, despite improvements in interventions: High immunisation rates Improving malaria prevention and treatment …but latest data is more optimistic…

13. Recent surveys show improvements in health interventions feeding through to improving child mortality: Infant mortality fell by a third in the last five years Also improvements in indicators for fever (proxy for malaria) and nutrition But no improvement in the very high maternal mortality rates

14. HIV/AIDS remains a serious problem More than 1 million adults (7% of population) Trend data for prevalence in 15 to 24 year olds (proxy for new infections) – suggests at least a stabilisation

15. The Poverty Monitoring System (PMS) Set up at start of PRS1 Some notable successes - Census and Survey data - More research and analysis Recent review highlighted some weaknesses that should be addressed in the revised Poverty Monitoring Master Plan - Data from routine administrative sources - Integrating the PMS with other government processes PMS data will contribute to biennial PHDR and poverty status summary in the alternate years

16. Links with other government processes PMS sometimes seen as a separate process Upcoming opportunities to integrate the PMS with wider processes: - Move from Vice Presidents Office to Planning - Consideration of monitoring in emerging sector review processes - Government work on strengthening planning and budgeting processes