1. From the Lab to the Market to Standards The Role of California Energy Policy California Lighting Technology Center 1 Nov. 2006 =================================== Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission =================================== (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html Or just Google “Art Rosenfeld” Start =Google, 30 min.

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5. 5 How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency? uEasiest to tease out is cars –In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons –Now about 21 miles per gallon –If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices –But we still pay $450 Billion per year –If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year uCommercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year uAppliances and Buildings are more complex –We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).

6. 6 How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)? uSome examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies uBeginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses –This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide uOut of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is transportation, and 1/3 is buildings and industry.

7. 7 A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiency from Vice-President Dick Cheney u“ Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus” u“About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency” Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001 Cheney could have noted that 72 quads/year saved in the US alone, would fuel one Billion cars, compared to a world car count of only 600 Million

8. 8 ∆ = 4,000kWh/yr = $400/capita

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12. 12 Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968 Growth = 1.5%/yr

13. 13 Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 Year Index (1972 = 100) Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards = Refrigerators Central A/C Gas Furnaces SEER = 13

14. 14 Source: David Goldstein

15. 15 Source: David Goldstein

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18. 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 TWh 2000 Stds 2005 Stds If EnergyStar TWH/Year 1.5 4.5 6.0 3.0 7.5 Value (billion $/year) Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL Value of TWh 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 标准生效后， 10 年节约电量

19. 19 Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 1975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996 1997199819992000200120022003 GWh/year Appliance Standards Building Standards Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of ~1% of electric bill ~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003

20. 20 California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency Forecast Profits decoupled from sales Performance Incentives Market Restructuring Crisis IRP 2% of 2004 IOU Electric Revenues Public Goods Charges

21. 21 Now Turning Specifically to Lighting uLighting accounts for 6% of US energy use (2005 EIA Data) uOr ~15 % of US electricity, see next slides.

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24. 24 Commercial Lighting Power Density, New Buildings 4 2.5 1.5 1.2 10 7.5 6 4.5 15 9 7.5 6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1973 Prior to Standards Title 24 1978Title 24 1985Title 24 2005 W/sf Commercial Office LightingCommercial Retail Lighting - lowCommercial Retail Lighting - high

25. 25 1% per year improvement, more with 2005 Stds

26. 26 Title 24 Residential Lighting Impact uTitle 24 1978 ~ 5-10% lighting energy use saved uTitle 24 1985 ~ 10-15% of lighting energy use saved uTitle 24 2005 ~ 20% of lighting energy use saved

27. 27 CFL Costs uCosts of CFLs have dropped…. u$15 to $25 from ~1982 to ~1995 (little change)  $3 to $10 today Reference: ESource Lighting Atlas, 2005

28. 28 uStandard 2-lamp T8 Electronic Ballast –Early 1990’s = $35-$40 –Today = $10 to $15 Electronic Ballast Costs

29. 29 Linear Fluorescent Costs Reference: ESource Lighting Atlas, 1997 & 2005 “Standard” T8 lamp In 1997 cost $4.61 In 2003 cost $2.44

30. 30 Title 20 (Appliance Efficiency Standards) Savings from T-20 (2005), effective ~ 2007. General Service Incandescent Lamps uSaving 255 million kWh annually in California (5% energy savings) Incandescent Reflector Lamps uSaving 626 million kWh annually in California Metal Halide Luminaires uSaving 38 million kWh annually in California Total T-20 Lighting Saving: 0.9 BkWh/yr = 1/3 typical 500 MW plant

31. 31 Title 24 – 2005 (Building Energy Efficiency Standards) Annual lighting energy savings, new construction: PercentageGWh Single Family 23.8%55.5 Multi-Family23.3% 9.1 Nonresidential9.8%84.1 Outdoor25.1%17.1 Signs25% 2.7 Total T-24 Lighting Annual Saving: 0.17 BkWh 1 st year, ->1.7 BkWh 10 th yr Add T-20 + T-24 for 2.6 BkWh = 1 typical 500-MW power plant

32. 32 Title 24 – 2008 Proposed lighting changes include the following: uResidential Lighting uOutdoor lighting uNonresidential indoor lighting uSign Lighting uGU-24 uHotel Key Cards (under review) Next Workshop Date (tentative) December 6, 2006