1. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 1 Manpower - Part 2 AvailabilityAvailability –Survey –Comparison of Needs and Availability –Caveats/to-do list Some ideas on how to bridge gapsSome ideas on how to bridge gaps Conclusions on 2005-2007Conclusions on 2005-2007 Conclusions on 2008-2009Conclusions on 2008-2009

2. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 2 Manpower survey Spreadsheet developed as first stage in DØ 2005-2007 MOU (1.)Spreadsheet developed as first stage in DØ 2005-2007 MOU (1.) Request FTE (2.) effort dedicated to DØRequest FTE (2.) effort dedicated to DØ –Faculty, scientist, postdoc, student Request details of institutional commitmentsRequest details of institutional commitments Notes:Notes: 1.2008-2009 “optional” - not part of MOU 2.FTE  fraction of total working week. NOT: fraction of research time; NOT fraction of 40 hour week! Same spreadsheet used also by CDFSame spreadsheet used also by CDF Responses so far from:Responses so far from: –71/77 DØ institutes –50/57 CDF institutes reasonable extrapolations made for missing institutesreasonable extrapolations made for missing institutes

3. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 3 Results of survey: 2005-2007 - Fall off for both US and non-US roughly consistent with HEPAP survey Expt. DØ DØ CDF CDF Year200520062007200520062007 non-US100% 93% 93% 74% 74%100% 89% 89% 75% 75% US100% 87% 87% 69% 69%100% 91% 91% 73% 73% all.expt100% 90% 90% 72% 72%100% 90% 90% 74% 74% HEPAP100% 84% 84% 66% 66%100% 88% 88% 69% 69% FTEs 463 463 417 417 332 332 434 434 392 392319

4. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 4 Comparison of FTE availability and needs: 2007 DØ DØ CDF CDF “Service” 165 165 126 126 “Core” physics 86 86 81 81 Total needs 1: (service*2) (service*2) 330 330 252 252 Total needs 2: (service+“core”) (service+“core”) 251 251 207 207 Available FTE 332 332 319 319 Available-needs 1: 2 67 67 Available-needs 2: 81 81 112 112 Sufficient effort to operate experiments and support a broad physics programme Assumes people spend 50% of time on “service” and 50% doing “physics”

5. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 5 Caveats/To-do list Availability is self reported whereas needs are bottoms-up estimateAvailability is self reported whereas needs are bottoms-up estimate Detailed analysis of “service” needs versus commitments not yet doneDetailed analysis of “service” needs versus commitments not yet done More careful checks needed to ensure “collaboration members” have been defined consistently in counting needs and availabilityMore careful checks needed to ensure “collaboration members” have been defined consistently in counting needs and availability

6. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 6 2007 Comparison with HEPAP CDF HEPAP CDF DØ HEPAP DØ Online+offline9193110168 Algorithms35385570 Physics 1: “core”-only 2:  “service” 3: “available” from MOU 8112619323286165167175 Total1:2:3:207252319363251330332417

7. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 7 Ideas to reduce needed effort and increase availability Experiment Operations:Experiment Operations: –More automation (control room and offline DQ) –Merge shifts –Professional shift crew –Continuity of experts for critical systems Computing OperationsComputing Operations –Increase (SAM-)Grid development and support for deployment –Common support of commonly used infrastructure by computing professionals a good strategy, but not always appropriatea good strategy, but not always appropriate –loss of experiment-specific personnel has hurt experiments –CD support for experiment-specific applications needed also General:General: –Increased visitor budget for all levels (students -> professors)for all levels (students -> professors)

8. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 8 Special role of Fermilab staff Lost Fermilab staff represent a significant part of the current problems facing the experimentsLost Fermilab staff represent a significant part of the current problems facing the experiments –In terms of lost FTEs and lost expertise approx 20 FTEs per experiment over past 3 yearsapprox 20 FTEs per experiment over past 3 years CDF and DØ need to add Fermilab staff in carefully targeted areasCDF and DØ need to add Fermilab staff in carefully targeted areas At least the service contributions of current Fermilab groups cannot be allowed to leak away as has happened in the pastAt least the service contributions of current Fermilab groups cannot be allowed to leak away as has happened in the past

9. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 9 Conclusions on 2005-2007 estimates Extrapolating manpower needs & availability from where we are now to 2007:Extrapolating manpower needs & availability from where we are now to 2007: –Subject to large uncertainties refined understanding neededrefined understanding needed –in particular, detailed analysis of “service” needs versus commitments –But can form the basis for a plan ideas to improve situation taking shapeideas to improve situation taking shape –Taking care of 2007 needs is the current main focus

10. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 10 Results for 2009 Calculated from 2007 MOU FTEs using HEPAP ratio for 2009/2007 Calculated from 2007 MOU FTEs using HEPAP ratio for 2009/2007 Expt. Expt. DØ DØ CDF CDF Available FTEs non-US 101 101 75 75 US 99 99 116 116 all.expt 200 200 191 191 Needed FTEs 1: service*2 248 248 222 222 2: service+core 190 190 175 175 Available - needed FTEs 1: -48 -31 2: 10 16 - Barely enough effort to deliver “core” physics programme - Need to find more effort or greater efficiency to deliver a broader physics programe

11. Terry Wyatt, University of Manchester, UK 11 Conclusions on 2008-2009 estimates Current extrapolations suggest a significant, but solvable, gap between needs and availabilityCurrent extrapolations suggest a significant, but solvable, gap between needs and availability Extrapolating from what we know now to 2008-2009 is largely guess work until:Extrapolating from what we know now to 2008-2009 is largely guess work until: –Tevatron achieves design pbar accumulation & electron cooling –Experiments demonstrate timely publication of 1-2 fb -1 dataset achieving required physics performanceachieving required physics performance maybe interesting hints?maybe interesting hints? –2007 manpower needs and availability demonstrated to be realistic –Believable schedule for LHC accelerator announced We need the answers to these questions before deciding:We need the answers to these questions before deciding: –Whether or not to run the Tevatron in 2008-2009 –Whether or not the experiments will have enough manpower to deliver the physics But what we do know now about 2008-2009 is:But what we do know now about 2008-2009 is: –Great physics potential –Hardware in great shape –By working together, the funding agencies, Fermilab and the collaborations can solve the effort gap –It would be crazy to do things now that would take the option of 2008-2009 away!