1. NYS Estimates of Income Eligibles and Unmet Need Wayne DeNyse Victoria Lazariu-Bauer Dan Kellis

2. Overview - May 1999  Based on two-year average of annual New York State (NYS) births  Births are adjusted for 185 percent of the federal poverty guidelines using 1990 Census Current Population Survey (CPS) Administrative data Statistical modeling

3. Administrative data  Medicaid births  Teenage pregnancies  Unemployment Insurance  Per capita income

4. Statistical model The statistical(regression) model is developed using 1990 census and administrative data. The purpose of this model is to estimate the relationship between actual poverty levels (census) and indicators of poverty (administrative data).

5. Medicaid adjustment The county level poverty estimates are adjusted (increased) to account for the more flexible definition of the family unit under Medicaid. The definition allows persons with incomes above 185% poverty to enroll in Medicaid and thus be eligible for WIC.

6. The result is the final county level estimates of the number of WIC income eligible infants. Final county estimates The estimated income eligible infants are then used to directly estimate the numbers of women and children income eligible for WIC.

7. Estimate of unmet need Unmet need = estimated eligibles - actual monthly participation The number of WIC participants is determined by linking the actual number of WIC certifications with the check redemption file.

8. Results - Statewide 55.7 percent of estimated income eligible WIC participants received WIC services 50.1 percent of estimated income eligible women were served 86.9 percent of estimated income eligible infants 54 percent of estimated income eligible children received WIC services

12. Conclusion  The eligibility estimates are compared to actual monthly service. A high proportion of infants are being served.  Only half of eligible women and children.