1. CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar 10am, May 7, 2010 Kevin Werner These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES

2. Outline April Weather Review Snow States Weather / Climate forecast Water Supply Forecasts Peak Flow Forecasts Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.3.2009.html

3. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/precip/qpe/mapsum/mapsum.cgi??cbrfc?M?2009?02

5. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked Snow: Apr 6 (above) May 6 (right)

6. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)

7. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open Snow: Colorado Mainstem (above Cameo)

8. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open Snow: San Juan Basin

9. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open Snow: Bear River

10. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open Snow: Six Creeks in Salt Lake County

11. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open Snow: Lower Colorado

12. Web Reference: Waterwatch.usgs.gov

13. Last 5 days… Web Reference: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

14. Forecast Precipitation Web Reference: www.hpc.noaa.govwww.hpc.noaa.gov Dry for the weekend Storm pattern expected for early next week for northern half of basin.

15. Forecast Precipitation: Next Week’s Storm Storm pattern centered on Monday / Tuesday (May 10-11). Total precipitation amounts up to 1.5 inches

16. El Nino Update Web Reference: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSOhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov

17. Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/climate/climoForecasts.cgi

18. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked May 1, 2010 Water Supply Forecasts Highlights: Some improvement particularly in northern Great Basin, parts of Green and upper Colorado Improvements on the order of 5-10% from April storm activity Gunnison, San Juan, and southern Great Basin essentially unchanged from April

19. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

20. Web Reference: waterwatch.usgs.gov

21. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.govwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

22. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and Waterwatch.usgs.govwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

23. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

25. Lake Powell SWE vs Inflow Below is a scatter plot of the % average of the snow water equivalent for this index for April 7 and the % average of the April-July volumes for the years 1987-2009. As you can see by the diagonal line, the snow index is not necessarily a good indicator of run-off volume. In fact, as the % average snow decreases the resulting volume becomes much less. This is likely due to losses such as sublimation, evaporation, and bank storage which can become more pronounced in drier years. Our ESP model (see below) takes these, and other hydrologic factors, into consideration. Plugging this year’s current index value into the equation gives a result of 62%, or 4.9 maf.

26. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.govwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

27. Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.govwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked

28. Online Publication Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

29. May 1, 2010 Peak Flow Forecasts Still in development Coming Soon (probably later today) Low flood risk potential in upper basin Likely peak flows have increased (up to ~15%) since April Weather patterns over the next month will greatly influence actual peak flows Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked

31. Email Updates: Automatic email update customized to what you need. http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsu p/govdelivery.html

32. More Resources www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov Podcast versions of webinars available (CBRFC homepage -> podcasts Tentative June water supply & peak flow webinar: 1pm June 7 Separate Peak Flow Forecast webinar as required or requested 2010 forecast verification webinar and 2011 look ahead webinars will be scheduled in October / November

33. CBRFC Open House Objective: Improve understanding / communication of forecast process and forecast usage August 18, 2010 – Lower Basin Focused section: Aug 19 – Upper Basin Focused section: Aug 17 Salt Lake City, UT More details to come www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/openhouse.html

34. Kevin Werner CBRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist Phone: 801.524.5130 Email: kevin.werner@noaa.govkevin.werner@noaa Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….