1. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Background Innovation is expected to give solutions for global and national issues. We have to cope with climate change, aging population, etc. S&T that have potential to make innovation happen should be focused on. Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making Link between S&T policy and foresight 2001 1971 - 2001 The Technology Foresight 2005 The 8th S&T Foresight Multi methods Delphi 2010 The 9th S&T Foresight Mission-oriented & interdisciplinary Global and national changes 2010 Integration with innovation policy 1995 S&T Basic Law 1996-2000 The 1st S&T Basic Plan 2001-2005 The 2nd S&T Basic Plan 2006-2010 The 3rd S&T Basic Plan Innovation 25 2011-2015 The 4th S&T Basic Plan

3. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Survey design Science and technology foresight for solving grand challenges Mission-oriented approach: four grand challenges and solutions for them Interdisciplinary discussion / diversified participants Integrative study Scenario writing Delphi survey Regional workshop To find a solution in grand challenges: What are priority research areas from a strategic point of view? What areas of science and technology should be promoted to be integrated? What social system has to be introduced, or restructured? Four grand challenges Central player in the scientific and technological arena Sustainable growth through green innovation Successful model for a healthy and aged society Secure life Social system renovation International collaboratio n Global challenge and national challenge Solution “Integration of wisdom” toward solving the challenges Strategic priority research for each area Basic research

4. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Preliminary discussion Mission/contribution of S&T Four thematic panels discussed on contribution of S&T regarding safety, security, international cooperation, and international competitiveness. Panels concluded 24 priority issues and importance of system thinking. Reassurance on safety:  Transparent system  High quality of health etc. International cooperation:  Development of untapped/un- discovered resources  International expansion of education service etc. Security:  Ensuring safety of artificial objects  Safety from environment and disaster etc. International competitiveness:  Technology transfer donation to explore future demand  Proposal of original methodologies etc.

5. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Delphi survey Interdisciplinary approach, breaking away from established disciplines Mission- oriented approach Discussion on: -Safety -Security -International collaboration -International competitiveness PanelViewpoint Panel 1 Utilization of electronics, communication, and nanotechnology in a ubiquitous society. Panel 2 Information technology including media and contents. Panel 3 Biotechnology and nanotechnology to contribute to humankind. Panel 4 Medical technology to contribute to healthy lifestyles of the nation’s people using IT. Panel 5 Understanding of dynamics of space, earth, and life, and science and technology which expand the region of human activity. Panel 6 Promotion of diverse energy technology innovations. Panel 7 Necessary resources, including water, food, minerals. Panel 8 Technologies for protecting environment and forming sustainable society. Panel 9 Fundamental technologies, including substances, materials, nanosystems, processing, measurement, etc. Panel 10 Manufacturing technologies which totally support development of industry, society, and science and technology. Panel 11 Strengthening of management led/required by advancement of science and technology. Panel 12 Infrastructure technologies supporting daily life base and industrial base.

6. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Scenario writing Expert groups prepared scenarios mainly focusing on technological and social conditions to solve grand chalenges we are facing. Picture of our daily life based on the results of delphi results. Young ICT experts envisioned services using ICT in our life in the future. Picture of our life thirty years from now Promoting factors toward the desired future - R&D priority - Human resource development - Cooperation/integration among fields/sectors - Reformation of social systems - Policy collaboration - Creation of new industry/business/employment - Public acceptance - International standpoint ＋ Delphi topics Future stories

7. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Regional workshop Discussion of the capability of local regions regarding sustainable development. Workshops involving citizens, business people, researchers, and public officials. Discussion of desired futures and factors conducive to their realization. Preliminary study - Literature searching Preliminary study - Literature searching Regional workshops -Workshops at eight local regions -Discussion of desired future in the region Regional workshops -Workshops at eight local regions -Discussion of desired future in the region Wrap-up workshop -Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures Wrap-up workshop -Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures Analysis

8. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Integrative study Picture of our daily life in the future S&T for solving global/national challenges Scenarios by group work Promoting factors for the desired future Mapping Ideas from younger generation New industries and services for each region Policy implications Interdisciplinary Delphi

9. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Result: Picture of our daily life in the future Better life around 2025 based on Delphi results A society in which various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail. A society where individuals can use various types of energy selectively based on their comprehensive evaluation of value and can feel that they proactively contribute to global warming prevention and environmental preservation. A society in the early stage of coping with the various disasters caused by environmental changes.

10. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Result: S&T for solving global/national challenges 36 delphi areas of importance Half of them are related to energy, environment, and resources. Areas related to ICT and management are also emphasized. Areas related to energy, resource and environment Energy [Panel 1] Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment [Panel 3] Space and ocean management technology (including observations) [Panel 5] Nuclear energy [Panel 6] Renewable energy [Panel 6] Fossil energy [Panel 6] Efficient power storage system [Panel 6] Energy saving [Panel 6] Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources [Panel 7] Water resources [Panel 7] Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA [Panel 7] Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources, and CCS [Panel 7] Life style and environment [Panel 8] Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming [Panel 8] Technology for urban waste minimization / material circulation for environmental conservation / resource- and energy- saving products [Panel 8] Pollution prevention for atmosphere, water and soil / circulative use technology for water resources [Panel 8] Energy, resources and environment [Panel10] Areas related to health and medical care Applied bio-nanotechnology [Panel 3] Medical treatment [Panel 3] Medical treatment aiming at safety and security [Panel 4] Creation of new medical technology [Panel 4] Development of predictive and preventive medicine [Panel 4] Other areas (ICT, base technologies, management, etc.) Socialization of information [Panel 2] Cloud computing [Panel 2] New principle for information and communication [Panel 2] Space technologies [Panel 5] Base materials for Nano-technology [Panel 9] Output (device, systemization and applied technology) [Panel 9] Globalization, value-adding and market creation [Panel 10] S&E human resource problem, the declining birth rate and aging population [Panel 10] Management corresponding to globalization [Panel 11] Management in service sector and environment business, management in education, governmental management [Panel 11] Framework for facilitation of social innovation [Panel 11] Management of human resources, transfer of knowledge [Panel 11] Strategy for maintenance of infrastructures [Panel 12]

11. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Result: Mapping Delphi areas with especially strong focus (4 areas) Delphi areas with strong focus (8 areas) Delphi areas with focus (24 areas) Scenarios where S&T are expected to make great contributions Delphi areas and group scenarios are plotted according to their similarity. Distinctive items are positioned at outer space and common items are positioned near the center.

12. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Policy implication and conclusion Mission-oriented and interdisciplinary approach is effective to find out the direction of innovation and its promoting factors. Broad participation and collaboration will be expected. Discussion in terms of both technology and society, that is, system thinking, will be indispensable. To implement foresight exercise for creating innovation that leads to solving global and national challenges;