1. Ozone and PM 2.5 verification in NAM-CMAQ modeling system at NCEP in relation to WRF/NMM meteorology evaluation Marina Tsidulko, Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee Geoff DiMego, Michel Ek NOAA/NCEP/EMC CMAS, 2 October, 2007

2. 268 grid cells 259 grid cells East “3x” Domain Forecast Domains (2005- 2007) CONUS “5x” Domain 1.WRF-CMAQ 2.WRF-CMAQ/PM

3. NCEP-EPA AQ SYSTEM NAM (WRF-NMM) Tighter coupling with more parameters transfered from NAM

4. CMAQ and NAM Changes Summer 2007 May 1Sep 8 CONUS 8-Hr Max BIAS

5. CONUS 5X Sub-Regions HIT Rate 8-Hr Max FHO Ozone statistics South-West Lower Miss Valley July 20 – Aug 25 North-East

6. CONUS 5X Sub-Regions BIAS 8-Hr Max LA under-prediction

7. July 3rd 5 PM, 36 hour Forecasts: Wind 10m & Temp 2m NAM RTMA NAM Verification: BIAS July 1-15, 2007, SWC Wind Temp Dew point NAM has stronger winds, Warmer temperature and Strong dry bias

8. LA Under-prediction NE Over-prediction Lower Miss Valley Over-prediction 2007: other cases Of under-prediction And over-prediction

9. PBL HEIGHT ESTIMATION IN MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS + Ri Number (no fluxes) NAM: TKE scheme CMAQ: Critical Richardson Number (with fluxes) RADIOSONDES: Critical Richardson number (surface fluxes set to zero) Ri CR = 0.25 (Vogelezang and Holtslag, 1996) Post After change to ACM2 VERIFICATION How good is PBL depth in the models? How we can verify it? - internal model parameter - no good measurements on regular basis

10. PBL Verification System RAOB BUFR format Observations Model output NAM GFS Grib Format Forecast Verification System PBL height Statistics PBL calculation Profiler Aircraft TKE PBL Mix Layer Ht Ri PBL/fluxes Ri PBL/no fluxes CMAQ 800 1120 480 Eastern US July 20-27, 2006

11. Western US Eastern US Central US PBL Depth July 1 – Sep 2, 2007 TKE PBL RI PBL RAOBS

12. TKE PBL and RI PBL Verification TKE PBLRI PBLRAOBS

13. TKE, RI and MODRI PBL depth TKE PBL is higher Some features exist only in TKE PBL

14. TKE, RI and MODRI PBL depth differences

15. CA: MODRI PBL is higher than RI PBL, and at some locations It is higher than TKE PBL

16. TKE PBL RI PBL MODRI PBL

17. TKE PBL RI PBL MODRI PBL Over-prediction – low PBL?

18. TKE PBL RI PBL RAOBS MX Height PBL Verification for retrospective tests: July 20-27, 2006 Western US Eastern US Central US 800 1120 480 2000 2400 2800 1600 1400 1800 2200 TKE PBL overprediction

19. July 20-27, 2006 12 hr PBL verification from launcher runs; Valid 00z Oakland CASan Diego CA

20. TexAQS 2006 Profiler: Lonlview, TX RAOBS: SHREVEPORT, LA

21. TexAQS 2006 (Measurements provided by Jim Wilczak)

22. Preliminary PM2.5 verification CMAQ forecast Starting 06Z 5 Aug, 2006: 24 hours average Particles (PM2.5): Daily 24-Hour AQI, (midnight to midnight ) AIRNOW: Daily 24-Hour AQI: 1 – 50 Good 51 – 100 Moderate 101 – 150 Unhealthy for Sensitive Group

23. Summary and Future Work OZONE: Ozone bias improved in experimental 5x CMAQ CMAQ has negative bias over SW sub-domain, especially LA LA under-predictions could be related to NAM meteorology PBL: Ri number based PBL is added to Verification System at NCEP PLANS: Add Aircraft (ACARS) data to PBL Verification (much more frequent than twice/day RAOBS data) Add Mixed Layer Height and ModRi based PBL to Verification Add PM 2.5 to Verification