1. IMACLIM-S Applications to France Frédéric Ghersi, CNRS

2. 3 recent publications Economie d’une fiscalité carbone en France, IRES report, 140 p., 2009 “La fiscalité carbone au risque des enjeux d’équité”, Revue Française d’Economie XXV (2), 32 p., 2010 “Carbon tax and equity. The importance of Policy Design”, in Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation vol. VIII, OUP, 18 p., 2010 “Taxe carbone, retraites et déficits publics : le coût caché du cloisonnement des expertises”, Revue d’Economie Politique 124 (3), 26 p., 2014 A macro-micro outlook on fuel poverty in 2035 France, CIRED WP 56, 28 p., 2014. 2/16

3. Focused on Counterfactual analysis of distributive issues Impulsed by the 2009 carbon tax reform project (aborted!) Through extension of the model to 2 dary income distribution Outlook on pension financing issues To contextualise official partial equilibrium projections To link the artificially disconnected issues of emission commitments and pension financing Outlook on fuel poverty First attempt at prospective outlook on the phenomenon Through disaggregation of results by microaccounting with reweighting 3/16

4. Based on 3 versions of the model 4/16 Version2.32.43.4 Timeframe 2004-2004 (counterfactual) 2004-2020 (one leap) 2006-2035 (one leap) Hybrid IO dataYes Hybrid behaviourNo Partly (IMACLIM-R) Partly (RES-IRF) Production sectors/goods 449 Household classes20 5 Microsimulation extension No Yes

5. Counterfactual 2004: equity and efficiency gains through C tax proceeds recycling 5/16 1.04 €300/tCO 2 – Uniform tax credit €300/tCO 2 – Mixed recycling 1.04 Employment Real consumption of 1 st twentile Inverse of Gini index 1.04 0.96 Aggregate households’ real consumption €300/tCO 2 – Targeted tax credit Reference France 2004

6. Outlook to 2020: carbon tax an efficient source of social budgets balance 6/16 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 CO 2 emissionsReal GDPEmploymentAv. real wage S1 : adjustment of retirement age (over 3 years later) (base 1 of graph) S4 : adjustment of social contributions (+7.2 points) S5 : €200/tCO 2 tax, -7pts social contributions and income tax adjustment Cumulated 2004-2020 pension deficit balanced out through… Base 1 = S1

7. Outlook to 2035: Fuel poverty a manageable issue 7/16 2006 2035, 4 scenarios Fuel-poor households Proportion 3.5 million 13,4% 4.4 – 4.9 13.7% - 15.4% Fuel-poor E expenses Proportion €11.2 billion b 29% 12.6 – 14.3 26% - 28% Share of GDP0.62% 0.46% - 0.52% Share of GDP, Q1 households only 0.20% 0.18% - 0.20% b Billion year-2006 Euros.

8. IMACLIM-P ‘RISKERGY’ and ‘EV-STEP’ ongoing projects Frédéric Ghersi, CNRS

9. RISKERGY On the resilience of public budgets to energy crises Generalisation of IMACLIM to all GTAP countries Aggregate 2-sector 1-household form Recursive dynamic yearly projection to 2020 based on Solow growth model Soft-linking to POLES model IO hybridation at 2007 calibration year Import of POLES trajectories of energy system characteristics (consumptions for now, eventually also some info on prices and investment) Export of GDP to POLES… and iteration to convergence 9/16

10. French GDP under a 2019 oil crisis (preliminary) 10/16 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 200620082010201220142016201820202022 Base 1 = GDP 2007 IMACLIM REF IMACLIM -15Mbj POLES pre-conv. (IMF)

11. EV-STEP On the macro impacts of EV penetration in EU28 Same modelling as RISKERGY extended in time and sectoral disaggregation 12-sector disaggregation (still 1household) Recursive dynamic yearly projection to 2050 based on Solow growth model … and soft-linked to TIMES PanEU model (Uni Stuttgart) IO hybridation at 2007 calibration year Import of TIMES trajectories of energy system characteristics (consumptions for now, eventually also some info on prices and investment) Export of GDP to TIMES… and iteration to convergence 11/16

12. EU28 GDP under EV penetration (preliminary) 12/16 10 15 20 25 201020152020202520302035204020452050 GDP, B€2007 TIMES Pan-EU IMACLIM REF IMACLIM EV