1. Domestic Energy Consumption A Projection to 2030 Mark Fessy 24 th February 2005

2. 85% of domestic energy in 2001 was for space or water heating Since 1970: Space Heating 36% Water Heating 12% Lighting and Appliance 131% Cooking 40% Domestic Energy Consumption 2003 - 2,005 PJ Domestic Energy Consumption by End Use

3. Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP): A measure of efficiency 100 = very efficient house Increase due: Increasing insulation standards Replacement of inefficient heating systems by central heating Ownership of CH has increased from 31% in 1970 to 94% in 2002 SAP Rating of Housing Stock

4. Insulation of housing stock has increased in the last 15 years. Driven largely by increase in double glazing Still room for improvement- only 29% of houses with cavity walls are filled Thermal Efficiency of Housing Stock

5. Ownership increased rapidly between 1974 and 1984 Since 1984 ownership has steadied but more people are choosing thicker insulation Ownership and Depth of Loft Insulation

6. Consumption per household stable Consumption per person 25% increase because households getting smaller Energy Consumption per Household

7. Space Heating- Assumptions 1. The trends for thicker loft insulation, double glazing and cavity wall insulation in existing housing will continue In 1999 only 29% of homes with cavity walls had them insulated 2. Building regulations will continue to become more energy efficient 3. Saturation levels for thermal comfort will be reached by 2010 4. Central heating demand will increase in the short term whilst the government tackles fuel poverty 5. Fewer people per house will mean an increase in house numbers 6. This increase in heating demand will be partially offset by rising external temps

8. Total electricity consumption by domestic appliance has increased by 119% since 1970 Main increase has been from the cold and wet sectors, but they are now decreasing. Energy Consumption by Household Appliances

9. Domestic Appliance and Lighting – Assumptions Consumption from cold appliances will decrease Wet appliances: Efficiency will increase Ownership of dishwashers will increase until 2010 Overall continue steepening downward trend Electricity use for cooking will continue to increase Electricity use for consumer goods will soon stabilise and decrease in future

10. 201020202030 Domestic Appliance Projections

11. 201020202030 Future Domestic Energy Trends for Each End Use

12. Domestic Energy Use Projection 2,320 PJ