1. 1 Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive #0424, La Jolla, CA 92093-0424, U.S.A E-Mail: bvjackson@ucsd.edu Tel: 858-534-3358 2 San Diego Supercomputer Center, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0505, La Jolla, CA 92093-0505, USA 3 Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab), Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan 4 University of Maryland, College Park, MD, U.S.A. 5 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, U.S.A. Abstract At the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), remote-sensing forecast analyses of the inner heliosphere have been regularly carried out using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. These analyses have measured and reconstructed the 3-D time-dependent solar wind structure for almost two decades using Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) IPS observations. More recently we have provided an even more accurate 3-D forecast analysis by incorporating in-situ spacecraft measurements into these remotely-sensed volumes. When using the IPS velocity analyses we can accurately convect-outward solar surface magnetic fields using potential field model techniques, and thus also provide values of the field throughout the global volume. These extrapolations allow an immediate relationship of any remote heliospheric position to the corresponding location on an inner boundary near the solar surface and an instantaneous trace-back to this boundary in order to estimate potential solar particle propagation paths. This forecast analysis is being operated in real time at the UCSD website http://ips.ucsd.edu, and at the NASA GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) website: http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp? The archival results of these time-dependent 3-D analyses of density, velocity, and vector magnetic field are compared with in-situ measurements obtained near Earth, and at STEREO, Mars, Venus, MESSENGER, and the Ulysses spacecraft. jet THE 3-D FORECAST OF INNER HELIOSPHERE SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS FROM REMOTE-SENSING AND IN-SITU DATA Bernard V. Jackson 1, Hsiu-Shan Yu 1, P. Paul Hick 1,2, Andrew Buffington 1, John M. Clover 1, Munetoshi Tokumaru 3, and Lan Jian 4,5 1. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) USCD currently maintains a near real time website that analyzes and displays IPS data from the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) radio arrays, Japan; the new Toyokawa system is shown. This modeling effort capability is also available at the CCMC. 2. UCSD Real-Time IPS Web Pages USCD http//:ips.ucsd.edu/ 500 km Density values for the solar wind can be inferred from the ‘normalized scintillation level’ (g-level) of observations of IPS relative to a nominal value. A greater variation in g-level amplitude generally means a higher density along the line of sight. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) at meter-wave radio frequencies is the rapid variation in radio signal intensity from a compact source produced by small- scale (100-200 km) variations in the solar wind density. These density variations produce a pattern on the surface of the Earth of similar size and are transported across the Earth’s surface at solar wind propagation speeds. Speed values for the solar wind can be inferred from the intensity variation by correlating the pattern motion across the surface of the Earth and expressing this as a line-of-sight value. 3. CCMC IPS Real-Time Analysis Sample UCSD IPS real-time time-dependent analysis using STELab data (see demo). CCMC IPS time-series analyses including the UCSD time-dependent model. Fisheye Sky MapFisheye Sky Sweep Sample UCSD IPS real-time time-dependent analysis using STELab data (see demo). Density ecliptic cutDensity forecast

2. jet 4. Inclusion of In-situData 4. Inclusion of In-situ Data A table of the STELab IPS comparison analysis used to forecast solar wind density and velocity in real-time are shown from spring to winter of 2011. The first column lists the Carrington rotation. The comparison correlation for velocity and density shown is given from the time the analysis was run (the STELab data latency when the analysis is run is at least 10 hours) relative to ACE level-0 data one, two, and three days in advance of the IPS analysis run time. The comparison is the difference between the ACE measurement at the forecast and run time vs. the difference between the analysis forecast and its value at the run time. IPS time series – time of tomographic run compared to ACE one day in advance. The measurement correlation shown is marked in the table (*) to the right. A positive correlation indicates a better than persistence determina- tion of the parameter change from the forecast time for this Carrington rotation Density analysis for CR 2114 Although these IPS analyses operate in real time, they are more accurate when used with archival data sets because a greater number of radio sources are available to depict the same structure. 8. Summary and Future The IPS 3-D reconstruction models (IPS and SMEI) are currently available to be run at the CCMC. The IPS time-dependent model is run at UCSD in real time daily as IPS data are made available for use from STELab, Japan, for use in space-weather forecasting and for checking the 3-D reconstruction model and heliospheric parameters. The CCMC (and the National Institute of Information and Communications – NICT, Japan) are currently evaluating the IPS real-time analysis for use in space-weather forecasting at their sites. Real-time checks of the IPS data feed back into the modeling effort to provide better future remote-sensing analysis and forecasts. Velocity Density (See Jackson et al., Solar Phys., 265, 245-256 2010.) The inclusion of in-situ data in the three-dimensional (3-D) reconstructions from recent STELab IPS data provides very accurate “aftcasts”. There is less of a change from in-situ real- time measurements to those remotely-sensed, and the blend from in-situ measurements into the 3-D tomography is seamless. An added benefit to the analysis is that the in-situ analysis appears to “stabilize” and refine the remote-sensing analysis so that it is more accurate with this inclusion. 6. Validation of IPS Density and Velocity Analyses (Forecast) Correlation Analysis CR 2110 – CR 2116 (spring – winter 2011) Comparison Forecast 5. Magnetic Field Extrapolation Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. Dunn, T., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339–353. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences (in press) Traceback to the Source Surface EIT 195 IPS Velocity Ecliptic cut * 7. Validation of IPS Analyses Density, Velocity Mag Field (Archival) Sample forecasts (see demo). In-Situ Tomographic analysis Sample Lan Jian CCMC Study CR 2056-2063 Earlier density and velocity forecasts (above), later (below). Also runs in real time (see demo).