1. Cirrus Cloud Boundaries from the Moisture Profile Hyperspectral (i.e., Ultraspectral) IR Sounders W. L. Smith 1,2, Jun-Li 2, and E, Weisz 2 1 Hampton University and 2 University of Wisconsin JCSDA-HFIP Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation for Hurricane Forecasting Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) December 2-3, 2010 Isabel Pays Unwelcome Visit To Seaford VA The 24-36 hour track forecast was good but the surge was missed by >1 meter but the surge was missed by >1 meter Can Ultraspectral Soundings Improve This! My House Seaford VA

2. Objective of Presentation Review ultraspectral sounding capability - today and tomorrow Demonstrate accuracy and coverage achieved with current satellite ultraspectral sounders (AIRS and IASI) for a Hurricane situation (Isabel) Demonstrate that use of current polar sounding data will improve Hurricane track forecasts Discuss the need for geostationary satellite ultraspectral sounder Describe commercial data buy venture to implement the geostationary satellite ultraspectral sounding capability

3. Ultraspectral Atmospheric Sounders Broad Spectral Coverage High Spectral Resolution Thousands of Spectral Channels High Information Content AIRS (2002) CrIS (2011) IASI (2006) GMW-GIFTS (≥2014) / IRS (2017) LWIR MWIR

5. Profile Information Content ITPR Number of Pieces of Information Radiosondes AIRS/IASI/CrIS HIRS/TOVS

7. Dual Regression Technique Clear Training Data SetIsothermal Clear Training Data SetCloudy Training Data Set Clear trained EOF regression results Radiances (calculated with clear FM) For 8 cloud height classes (100-900 hPa) Cloud trained EOF regression results Cloud Top Altitude Final Profile (clear-trained above, cloud-trained below cloud level) Radiances (calculated with cloudy FM) For 8 cloud height classes (100-900 hPa)

8. MODIS 1km images (1705, 1710) Hurricane Isabel case study (Sept-13, 2003) High Dense Cirrus Cirrus Outflow Eye

9. Isabel (September 13, 2003, 18 UTC) Dual Regression AIRS Retrieval Results

10. .. 850 hPa Temperature and Humidity

11. 700 hPa Temperature and Humidity..

12. 500 hPa Temperature and Humidity..

13. 200 hPa Temperature and Humidity..

14. Isabel Eye Sounding

15. http:/// AIRS SFOV soundings are used in WRF assimilations to improve hurricane/typhoon forecasts BT (11  m) and retrieved Temperature [K] at 500 hPa, 7 Sept 2008

16. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/ If AIRS SFOV soundings are included in assimilations improved track forecast can be obtained AIRS Tracks of ensemble mean analysis on Hurricane IKE (Analysis from 6-8 Sept 2008) Li, J., H. Liu, 2009: Improved hurricane track and intensity forecast using single field-of-view advanced IR sounding measurements, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11813.

17. 17 Track errors of on Hurricane IKE Analysis from 06 UTC 6 to 00UTC 8 September 2008 Li and Liu 2009 (GRL)

18. 18 SLP Intensity on Hurricane IKE Analysis from 06 UTC 6 to 00UTC 8 September 2008 Li and Liu 2009 (GRL)

19. 19 LEO data have limitation on monitoring weather due to orbital gap and low temporal resolution. High temporal resolution is unique aspect of GEO measurements GEO can provide data anytime for weather event, unlike LEO ! Need for Geostationary Ultraspectral Sounder 4-d assimilation of high frequency thermodynamic soundings should improve intensity and track forecasts.

21. Summary Ultraspectral resolution radiance data improve forecasts. It has been shown that they are the single most important data input for NWP, even though < 1% of the current data is being used. In order to assimilate “all” the information content of the radiance data, reliable sounding retrievals, which benefit from the use of all the radiance information, regardless of cloud condition or underlying surface condition. Although IR soundings cannot be obtained below a dense overcast, they can be obtained reliably down to cloud level and below a semi-transparent or broken cloud cover. The use of soundings obtained above and in the environment of tropical storms should help improve tropical storm intensity and track forecasts. The greatest benefit of ultraspectral resolution satellite radiance data will come with their availability from geostationary satellites. The geostationary ultraspectral sounder implementation is proceeding in China (2015 launch) and Europe (2017 launch). In the US, there is now a commercial (GeoMetWatch) initiative to produce as many as six imaging/sounding ultraspectral resolution sensors for geostationary Comsats positioned around the globe. The first system (GMW-1), which is based on GIFTS technology, is planned to be launched by 2015. Data would be obtained by NOAA under a data buy contract.