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State of Tsunami Science and Early Warnings Dr. François Schindelé, CEA-DASE Chairman of the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific ICG/ITSU
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State of Tsunami Science
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TSUNAMIS M 8.7
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TSUNAMIS 1946 Tsunami Destruction in Hilo, Hawaii
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TSUNAMIS April 1, 1946 Tsunami at Hilo, Hawaii
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Arica, Chile PERU TSUNAMI 23 JUN 2001 2033 UTC 16.2S 73.4W Mw=8.4 SERIES (4-5 large) of OCEAN WAVES MOST generated by EARTHQUAKES 4 to 60 MINUTES between WAVE CRESTS AMPLITUDE : A few cm to 20 m SPEED depends on WATER DEPTH : arround 800 km/h in deep ocean, 40 km/h close to the coast What is a Tsunami ?
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COMPONENTTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 1. ASSESSMENT Historical Studies Historical Data Base Field Surveys Inundation Maps Numerical Simul Hazard Assessment
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Run-up Map - Aleutians 1946 Tsunami Observation Directivity
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Tsunami Generation
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Tsunami generated by Earthquake 1 Generation ParametersInitiation Length Width Dislocation Strike Slope North Dip Numerical Modeling
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2 Propagation x h= h(x,y) = (x,y) Sea bottom z v=[u(x,y);v(x,y);0)] y tsunami Numerical Modeling
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3 Numerical Mareograms - Inundation Each bay Données : Grids bathymetry and topography Numerical Modeling
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Tsunami generated by landslide Generation Propagation Inundation Numerical Modeling
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Aftershocs Rupture zone Main shoc
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Initiation
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Maximum Tsunami height (in deep ocean)
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Maximum Tsunami height Directivity due to the focal mechanism Amplitud very different at the same distance ratio >10 Less damage on the coast at > 500 km than in front at 4000 km 0.1 m 1 m
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Travel Time 1h 2h 3h 1h 2h
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Sri Lanka Colombo Sea-level data Arrival time : 2h40 after EQ Amplitude > 2m
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State of Early Warnings
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1Detection of Large Earthquakes (M > 7.0) Seismic Network 1Real Time Data 2Broad Band or long period seismometers 2Tsunami Detection Sea level Network 1Near Real Time Data 2Tide gage, pressure gage, DART boye
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COMPONENTTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 3. WARNING Measurement Early Detection GUIDANCE Telecomm Real-Time Data Numerical Simul Wave Forecast Warning Dissem “to the last km” Rat Island, 17 Nov 2003 DART Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 1 RAPID INITIAL WARNING : COLLECTION of SEISMIC DATA (Real Time) PTWC ACTIVITIES
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 1 RAPID INITIAL WARNING : Automatic ANALYSIS of SEISMIC DATA Detection, location, magnitude estimation Manual verification (geophysicist) If Epicenter located under the ocean or on the coast The focal depth < 60 km And the Magnitude > 7.8 A tsunami can be generated PTWC ACTIVITIES
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EARLY WARNING TREMORS SYSTEM
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TREMORS Sismometers
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 2 CONFIRM AND MONITOR THE TSUNAMI : COLLECTION and ANALYSIS of WATER LEVEL DATA PTWC ACTIVITIES
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 2 CONFIRM AND MONITOR THE TSUNAMI : Tsunami warning is confirmed if the tsunami amplitude is greater than 50cm - 1 m in the gages Tsunami warning is canceled in the other cases PTWC ACTIVITIES
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PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES CPPT
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Mitigation Warning Guidance Hazard Assessment Hazard Reduction Strategy: Assessment, Preparedness, Warning
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Indian Ocean IOTWS Sea Level Network Subduction zone 1 Indian Ocean Warning Center National Warning Centers
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