1. OEAS 604: Final Exam Tuesday, 8 December 8:30 – 11:30 pm Room 3200, Research Innovation Building I Exam is cumulative Questions similar to quizzes with focus on concepts

2. Physical-biological Interactions OEAS 604 Lecture Outline 1)Recruitment to marine fisheries 2)Modeling physical-biological interactions 3)Global environmental change programs

3. Recruitment patterns Why patterns occur and what are key processes?

4. Changes in Abundance of Key Species Copepod abundance in North Sea Consequences for fish production and recruitment (Beaugrand)

5. Challenge Recruitment to marine fish populations depends on: Variations in larval feeding and nutrition – Lasker (1981) >larval feeding provides direct link from zooplankton to the consumer Advection into favorable/unfavorable environmental conditions – Hjort (1914) >requires knowledge of the scales that are relevant to the planktonic organism Combining two requires understanding of dependence of population dynamics on the physical structure of the ocean and links to ecosystem dynamics

6. Scales of Processes View that marine ecosystems operate along a continuum defined by space and time Now - View has evolved to one in which marine ecosystem variability and population recruitment result from the integration of processes across all scales and includes direct as well as indirect interactions

7. Processes at all scales influence variability of marine organisms and populations Studies of marine ecosystems require integration of the environmental drivers and biological responses

8. Knowledge of scale interactions have resulted in additional hypotheses about physical-biological controls on recruitment

9. Development of conceptual frameworks for recruitment that encompass multiple scales

10. Trophic transfer and habitat conditions Field and Modeling Programs to Test Conceptual Models Russia

11. Modeling Physical-Biological Interactions Modeling has been central to advancing understanding of physical-biological interactions Built on scientific and technological advances, such as realistic circulation models Integration of concentration-based models and IBMs with circulation models resulted in ability to project future states of ecosystems and to understand processes Allowed identification of spawning areas, recruitment regions, connectivity of populations at a range of scales

12. Understand the processes controlling the spring bloom Used a regression model that included environmental variables – temperature Riley (1946, JMR) No predictive power or indication of controlling processes

13. Developed a mechanistic mathematical model dP = P(P h – R – G) dt Time change P = photosynthesis – respiration – grazing Included processes that affect the concentration and abundance of phytoplankton

14. Physical-biological models evolved to systems of interconnected modules NEMURO - minimum trophic structure and biological relationships … thought to be essential in describing ecosystem dynamics in the North Pacific

15. Realistic Regional Circulation Models Coastal Gulf of Alaska West Antarctic Peninsula Include sea ice, coupling to atmospheric models and larger scale models

16. Connection between spawning and recruitment regions Inclusion of detailed biology provides process understanding Population connectivity at regional to circumpolar scales Importance of comparative studies Thorpe et al. (2007)

17. Future Models evolving to include humans as part of the marine food web Importance of top predators including humans Perry et al. (in press) Barange et al. (in press)

18. Tuna Forage Model New Production Temperature, Currents, Plankton Biomass, Oxygen Population variability Age Structured Model Fishing catch CLIOTOP

19. Global Environmental Change Programs Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) Program Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere (SOLAS) Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) Past Global Changes (PAGES) International research programs sponsored by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR)

20. IMBER FOUR RESEARCH THEMES  Interactions between biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs  Sensitivity to global change  Feedbacks to the Earth System  Responses of society

21. SOLAS understand the key biogeochemical- physical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere Exchange processes at the air-sea interface and the role of transport and transformation in the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers Air-sea flux of CO2 and other long-lived radiatively active gases

22. LOICZ support sustainability and adaptation to global change in the coastal zone include developing and testing integrated multidisciplinary (natural+economic+social) methods to analyze the environmental and social interactions and feedbacks governing coastal system status and changes

23. PAGES improve our understanding of past changes in the Earth System in order to improve projections of future climate and environment, and inform strategies for sustainability

24. Future Earth

25. COP21

26. Next Class Instruments and models Chapter 6, Talley et al.